Mastermind of 1996 Khobar Towers Bombing Arrested

Yesterday, Saudi Arabia reportedly arrested Ahmed al-Mughassil, who is accused of masterminding the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing that killed 19 U.S. airmen stationed in Saudi Arabia. Mughassil, who has been identified in legal proceedings as the military leader of Hezbollah al-Hijaz, a Gulf-focused branch of the Shia militia, was believed to be hiding in Beirut under Hezbollah’s protection. Early reports indicate that he was detained by Lebanese authorities sometime within the past several weeks and handed over to the Saudi government.

Some analysts have questioned the timing of Mughassil’s arrest, noting how — after nearly two decades of being a cold case — it coincides with the debate of the Iran nuclear deal and persistent Iranian-Saudi tensions. Bruce Riedel, who was deputy assistant secretary of defense at the time of the attack, speculates the arrest could be “intended to remind Americans about Iran’s long history of involvement in terrorism.”

Kurds Reclaim Territory in Iraq, Islamic State Advances toward Turkey

One day into a new offensive to reclaim territory in Kirkuk province, Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga have captured 24 square kilometers and 10 contested towns. It is the first major shift in the frontline of the conflict in that area in months. As the peshmerga pushed back Islamic State in Iraq, Islamic State forces made gains in Syria, advancing on the Turkish border and cutting off the rebel-held city of Marea.

Headlines

• Approximately 50 migrants were found dead aboard a boat off the coast of Libya, likely having suffocated in the ship’s hold; 430 others were found alive on that boat and 3,000 total were rescued over the course of the day.

• Militants in Gaza fired a rocket into Israel, exploding in a clearing; the Israeli air force responded by striking a Hamas weapons factory in the Gaza Strip.

• Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Wednesday to discuss expanded counterterrorism cooperation.

• Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a Scud missile launched toward Najran from Sanaa and responded with airstrikes.

• Recently-appointed U.S. envoy for Syria Michael Ratney is departing for a trip to Moscow, Riyadh, and Geneva to discuss the prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the Syrian civil war.

Arguments and Analysis

“No Exit? Gaza & Israel Between Wars” (International Crisis Group)

“Short of renewed fighting or using large carrots and sticks to push a weakened PA into taking responsibility for Gaza, Israel’s main options are either to improve conditions there unilaterally, so the Hamas-run administration can govern sustainably, thereby giving Hamas greater incentive to continue enforcing the current ceasefire, or to reach a more robust, extended ceasefire with Hamas. The latter would be very difficult to achieve. Substantive differences are large: Hamas and Israel have different ideas about a potential ceasefire’s territorial scope (whether it includes the West Bank), duration, obligations regarding Hamas weapons (smuggling and production) and extent of Israeli measures to end or reduce the closure.”

“The Other Foreign Fighters: An Open-Source Investigation into American Volunteers Fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria” (bell¿ngcat)

“The foreign fighter phenomenon as it relates to the ongoing conflict in Iraq and Syria has been well documented by governments, the media, and the academic literature. Estimates vary, but the general consensus is that between 20,000 and 30,000 foreigners from more than 100 countries have traveled to Syria to fight with various Sunni jihadist groups. Of those, roughly 150 to 200 are American citizens. This report seeks to shed light on a related, yet understudied phenomenon, namely, that of Americans traveling to Iraq and Syria to fight against the Islamic State (IS). While there have been a number of vignettes in the media highlighting particular Americans or groups of Americans who have traveled abroad to combat IS, this is the first systematic study, relying solely upon open-source information, to provide a concrete understanding of not only the scale of the anti-IS American foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria, but also their backgrounds and motivations.”

-J. Dana Stuster

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