What Does Trudeau’s Liberal Vision for Canada Look Like?

Surprise, surprise. Contrary to what many observers — including myself — predicted as recently as a week ago, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party in Canada demolished both the Conservatives and the New Democratic Party (NDP), winning more than enough seats to form a strong majority government. After almost 10 years, Stephen Harper is out, both as prime minister and as leader of the Conservative Party.

The final tally put the Liberals at 184 seats in the expanded House of Commons (30 new seats were added this year), with the Conservatives down to 99, the NDP badly sliding to 44, the Bloc Québécois with 10, and the Green Party at 1. In percentage terms the changes in fortune since the 2011 general election are jaw dropping. The Liberals went from 11 percent to 54 percent, the Conservatives from 54 percent to 29 percent, and the NDP from 33 percent to 13 percent.

What happened? Canadian observers offer at least three reasons for the Liberals unprecedented comeback:

1. Boredom: After 10 years, Canadians simply got tired of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. Never known for his warmth or charm, Harper’s stewardship was solid if unexciting. According to a poll two days before the election, 70 percent of voters opted for the “change” meme and voted — not necessarily against Harper — but for anyone different.

2. Three’s a Crowd: For the last decade the Conservatives have benefited from a divided opposition, with the center-left Liberals competing against the far-left NDP for votes. This time around, anti-Conservative voters dumped the NDP like a bad date. Nowhere was this rejection more painful than in Quebec, where a net 38 seats flipped from the NDP to the Liberals.

3. Canadians, It Turns Out, Are Fine with Dynasties: Justin Trudeau outperformed all expectations. A competent speaker and a good family man, Trudeau nevertheless does not possess the star power of his famous late father and mother. In the last weeks of the campaign, however, he was energetic, telegenic, and kind of cool — a reminder of the days when the name Trudeau got you straight into Studio 54.

So what does a Liberal agenda look like? During the campaign Trudeau promised to increase budget deficits by $25 million over the next 3 years to “invest” in infrastructure and the middle class. He’ll do so by spending more of other people’s money, namely those Canadians making more than $200,000 a year who will find themselves under a brand new 33 percent tax bracket. (Perhaps to ease the pain of the nouveau taxed, the Liberals also intend to legalize marijuana.) On security issues, Trudeau has said he will cancel the F-35 program, take bids for other jets, and redirect the savings to the navy for more ships. And instead of taking the fight to Syria, Canada will take Syrians — 25,000 of them. A Liberal government will continue to train Iraqi soldiers and provide other kinds of “non-combat” support.

As for the Conservatives, Harper will go back to being a regular MP while his party searches for a new party leader and a new direction. But having won nine federal elections in the last 20 years, their exile from power won’t last forever.

NICHOLAS KAMM/AFP/Getty Images