The Cable

The Cable goes inside the foreign policy machine, from Foggy Bottom to Turtle Bay, the White House to Embassy Row.

This Chart Shows Why the U.S. Fed Is Reluctant to Raise Interest Rates

U.S. GDP growth is a story of peaks and valleys.

GettyImages-488748400
GettyImages-488748400

U.S. Fed chief Janet Yellen kept interest rates near zero Wednesday, further delaying a long-expected interest rate hike. It’s an indication the U.S. central bank doesn’t think the American economy is strong enough to overcome an increase to the cost of borrowing. U.S. gross domestic product growth numbers released Thursday show why.

U.S. Fed chief Janet Yellen kept interest rates near zero Wednesday, further delaying a long-expected interest rate hike. It’s an indication the U.S. central bank doesn’t think the American economy is strong enough to overcome an increase to the cost of borrowing. U.S. gross domestic product growth numbers released Thursday show why.

Since the depths of the Great Recession, the United States has been unable to sustain consistent, positive economic growth. Check out the chart below. It shows U.S. GDP growth by quarter since the start of 2009.

As you can see, U.S. economic output has been spotty, at best. It’s a story of peaks and valleys: Periods of strong growth have been followed by lulls, meaning growth has been inconsistent and hard to sustain.

Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee consider numerous data points before making their decision on whether to increase the cost of borrowing, which could discourage businesses and consumers from taking on debt. The most basic measure of the health of a national economy — its economic output — shows why they’re being cautious before lifting interest rates for the first time since 2006.

Photo credit: Andrew Burton/Getty Images

More from Foreign Policy

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping give a toast during a reception following their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on March 21.

Can Russia Get Used to Being China’s Little Brother?

The power dynamic between Beijing and Moscow has switched dramatically.

Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.
Xi and Putin shake hands while carrying red folders.

Xi and Putin Have the Most Consequential Undeclared Alliance in the World

It’s become more important than Washington’s official alliances today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.
Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

It’s a New Great Game. Again.

Across Central Asia, Russia’s brand is tainted by Ukraine, China’s got challenges, and Washington senses another opening.

Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.
Kurdish military officers take part in a graduation ceremony in Erbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, on Jan. 15.

Iraqi Kurdistan’s House of Cards Is Collapsing

The region once seemed a bright spot in the disorder unleashed by U.S. regime change. Today, things look bleak.