Best Defense

Thomas E. Ricks' daily take on national security.

How L’il Kim might go: Assassinated by a top insider, not by an organized coup

There’s a good hard-headed piece in the new ish of the 'International Journal of Korean Studies' that works through various scenarioes of how Kim Jong Il might be killed.

Screen Shot 2015-12-10 at 10.41.37 AM
Screen Shot 2015-12-10 at 10.41.37 AM

 

There’s a good hard-headed piece in the new ish of the International Journal of Korean Studies that works through various scenarioes of how Kim Jong Il might be killed. The conclusion: “the assassination of Kim Jong-un is more likely to be carried out by a lone assassin from the country’s top leadership at a private gathering than by a group of plotters during a public event.” Such a lone gunman exit is likely to be followed by a power struggle, predicts the author, Sungmin Cho, a former South Korean military intelligence officer now doing a PhD at Georgetown University.

(HT 2 DM)

 

There’s a good hard-headed piece in the new ish of the International Journal of Korean Studies that works through various scenarioes of how Kim Jong Il might be killed. The conclusion: “the assassination of Kim Jong-un is more likely to be carried out by a lone assassin from the country’s top leadership at a private gathering than by a group of plotters during a public event.” Such a lone gunman exit is likely to be followed by a power struggle, predicts the author, Sungmin Cho, a former South Korean military intelligence officer now doing a PhD at Georgetown University.

(HT 2 DM)

Image credit: Wikimedia Commons

Thomas E. Ricks covered the U.S. military from 1991 to 2008 for the Wall Street Journal and then the Washington Post. He can be reached at ricksblogcomment@gmail.com. Twitter: @tomricks1

More from Foreign Policy

A Panzerhaubitze 2000 tank howitzer fires during a mission in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
A Panzerhaubitze 2000 tank howitzer fires during a mission in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

Lessons for the Next War

Twelve experts weigh in on how to prevent, deter, and—if necessary—fight the next conflict.

An illustration showing a torn Russian flag and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
An illustration showing a torn Russian flag and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse

Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.

An unexploded tail section of a cluster bomb is seen in Ukraine.
An unexploded tail section of a cluster bomb is seen in Ukraine.

Turkey Is Sending Cold War-Era Cluster Bombs to Ukraine

The artillery-fired cluster munitions could be lethal to Russian troops—and Ukrainian civilians.

A joint session of Congress meets to count the Electoral College vote from the 2008 presidential election the House Chamber in the U.S. Capitol  January 8, 2009 in Washington.
A joint session of Congress meets to count the Electoral College vote from the 2008 presidential election the House Chamber in the U.S. Capitol January 8, 2009 in Washington.

Congrats, You’re a Member of Congress. Now Listen Up.

Some brief foreign-policy advice for the newest members of the U.S. legislature.