Situation Report: North Korea tests a nuke; US commando mission in Afghanistan goes wrong; Saudis pushing Washington to defriend Tehran; new U.S. military commanders on the way; Ramadi destruction; and lots more

By Paul McLeary with Adam Rawnsley

Nuke test in North Korea. Pyongyang never stays out of the headlines for long, and now that the hermit kingdom appears to have conducted its fourth nuclear test since 2006, the country has shot back to the front pages.

Surprising no one, North Korean television called the test a “complete success,” but it’s impossible to say, at this early stage, how true that might be. South Korea’s intelligence services and other experts say they’re skeptical that the test was a hydrogen bomb, as the North claims, as the yield appears to have been much smaller than what such a detonation would produce. Rather, it looks similar to previous thermonuclear tests carried out by the country.

So far the U.S. Defense Department has held back on issuing a statement, but State Department spokesman John Kirby said “we have consistently made clear that we will not accept” North Korea as a nuclear state. “We will continue to protect and defend our allies in the region, including the Republic of Korea, and will respond appropriately to any and all North Korean provocations.” However it shakes out, the move hasn’t endeared the North to any potential allies, as both China and Russia have joined the chorus of international condemnation of the test.

Underground, but not out of sight. In another move that world powers view as rather unhelpful, Iran unveiled what appears to be a second underground missile bunker this week, with state television showing off a video of Emad precision-guided missiles stored in newly-constructed tunnels. Washington says the missiles can carry nuclear warheads, and violate a 2010 U.N. Security Council resolution. The video follows similar footage released in October of another underground missile depot.

Hold the Tehran pivot. Despite Tehran’s boasts over its missile capabilities — which includes recent missile tests that violate a U.N. ban — there’s no word on any penalties the country might pay. This isn’t good news to Saudi Arabia, which is desperately trying to put some distance between Washington and Tehran. FP’s Dan De Luce drops a new story looking at Riyadh’s concerns over closer U.S. and Iranian ties, and its failed attempts to push Washington to play a more supportive role for Arab regimes in the region.

The Saudis have been “angered over Obama’s reluctance to intervene in Syria, his withdrawal of support for former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak after popular protests in 2011, and his readiness to turn a new page in Washington’s relations with Iran,” leading Riyadh “to believe that the United States can no longer be counted on as a rock solid ally ready to come to the aid of its Arab friends,” several analysts told De Luce.

The Long War. Tuesday was a tragic day for U.S. Special Forces in Afghanistan, who lost a soldier in a sharp combat engagement with the Taliban. In what had to be a harrowing scene, the commandos were stuck for hours at the site of the firefight after two attempts to get their dead and wounded out were thwarted by enemy fire and a helicopter crash.

The latest we have is that most of the American and Afghan special operators remain on the ground guarding the crashed U.S. HH-60 Pave Hawk helicopter, which was disabled after hitting a wall when landing. Overall, two U.S. choppers were dispatched to get the team out, but the other was waved off due to heavy fire, according to U.S. officials. That left the American and Afghan forces to continue to fight off the Taliban while caring for their wounded, FP’s Paul McLeary reports.

It is unclear how long the soldiers had to wait with their dead comrade and two other wounded troops, but the incident underscores just how dangerous the country remains even if U.S. officials say that the Americans are acting in a “train, advise, and assist” role only.

Naming names. It looks like President Barack Obama may nominate Gen. Joe Votel, currently the head of U.S. Special Operations Command, to become the next chief of U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. military operations in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reports.

If confirmed by the Senate, Votel would replace Gen. Lloyd Austin when his term runs out later this year. The move would also mark the first time a former head of the secretive Joint Special Operations Command would lead a combatant command, further underscoring President Barack Obama’s growing reliance on special operations forces to conduct the country’s warfighting business.

More moves. There are several other vacancies in the Defense Department that Defense Secretary Ash Carter is expected to fill in the coming months. He’s expected to recommend U.S. Air Force Gen. Lori Robinson to lead U.S. Northern Command, making her the first woman to head a combatant command. Word is, head of U.S. forces in Korea, Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti will be given the nod to become the next commander of U.S. European Command, and the current head of the U.S. Africa Command, Gen. David Rodriguez, will be replaced by a Marine, with Gen. John Paxton and Gen. Thomas Waldhauser being considered for the post.

Smashed. If there’s any question over the scale of the destruction in Ramadi, and how some estimate it’ll cost upwards of $10 billion to rebuild the parts of the city that have been destroyed, take a look at this Reuters photo essay of civilians trying to flee the fighting there.

It’s still 2016, and this is still the Situation Report. As always, if you have any thoughts, announcements, tips, or national security-related events to share, please pass them along to SitRep HQ! Best way is to send them to paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or on Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley.

Syria

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), the international body which monitors compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention, has found that Assad regime troops were exposed to sarin or sarin-like substances, Reuters reports. The revelation came in a December 29 letter by OPCW leader Ahmet Uzumcu to U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. Uzumcu was not able to determine how or under what circumstances Syrian troops were exposed to sarin.

Russian pop stars Yulia Chicherina and Zara have flown to Latakia, Syria to put on a concert for Russian troops fighting on behalf of the Assad regime there. The BBC reports that the stars were part of a “celebrity task force” deployed to Syria for a special New Year’s concert at Russia’s Hmeimim base. The trip to entertain Russian troops fighting in foreign countries is the second for Yulia Chicherina, whom Ukraine sanctioned for playing a similar concert for Russian troops in Crimea.

Iraq

The diplomatic split over Saudi Arabia’s execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr and the sacking of the Saudi embassy by Iranian protesters is putting pressure on Middle Eastern countries to pick sides. The polarization couldn’t come at a worse time for Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who finds himself under pressure from Shiite protesters to cut ties with Saudi Arabia over Nimr’s execution just as he tries to reconcile Iraq’s Sunni minority with the largely Shiite central government. Thus far, Abadi has punted, condemning the Nimr execution but calling for unity among all Iraqis.

The Islamic State by the numbers

The Islamic State’s self-styled caliphate shrunk by almost third in 2015, according to data cited by U.S. coalition spokesman Col. Steve Warren. Measuring territory controlled by the group, Warren said that the Islamic State lost 30 percent of its overall territory last year with a reduction of 40 percent of its Iraqi territorial holdings. Separately, the Long War Journal reports that the Syrian Kurdish YPG militant group published a post on its website claiming to have killed 5,875 “enemy fighters” — a likely shorthand for Islamic State fighters — last year.

Israel

Hezbollah detonated a roadside bomb in Har Dov near the Israel-Syria-Lebanon border, an apparent act of retaliation for Israel’s reported role in killing a senior Hezbollah member Samir Kuntar in a December airstrike in Damascus. Hezbollah claims the bomb injured Israeli troops but officials there say no one was injured in the attack. Haaretz reports that Israeli officials believe the bombing marks the end of tension along the border over the Kuntar killing, with Hezbollah officials considering the attack sufficient retaliation.

Poland

Polish Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz wants to almost double the size of the Polish army from 80,000 to 150,000, Newsweek reports. Macierewicz said a 150,000-strong army would represent the “minimum” needed to cope with threats and mentioned plans for three more army brigades which would deploy to Poland’s eastern border.

DARPA

The Pentagon’s in-house tech incubator, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), will release its ratings for the security of different software products sometime before fall 2016, Inside Cybersecurity reports. The Cyber Independent Testing Laboratory received a contract from DARPA to develop the ratings, which it styles as a Consumer Reports-like ratings system that would allow the public to understand the relative security of different software products.

Pacific Fleet

The U.S. Navy’s Pacific fleet has shrunk to 182 vessels as China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy has grown to more than 300, according to the AP. American officials say they’re comfortable with the numbers, claiming that the smaller number of ships and submarines they have now are more capable, making up for the lower headcount. But experts say fewer vessels mean lengthened deployments, which have strained recruiting efforts.