Islamic State Releases Some Hostages, Rounds Up More Men

The Islamic State is continuing to round up civilians in Deir al-Zor, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which reports that another 50 men were abducted in raids on Tuesday. The Islamic State has released 270 of the 400 people seized over the weekend, mostly women and children, but has kept the others to determine if they are affiliated with the Assad regime and to put them through a religious re-education course, the head of the Observatory told reporters. In Iraq, satellite images have confirmed that the Islamic State has destroyed St. Elijah’s Monastery, in Mosul. Built in the 6th century, St. Elijah’s was the oldest Christian monastery in Iraq.

In its most recent issue of its online magazine, released yesterday, the Islamic State confirmed that Mohammed Emwazi, the British militant known as “Jihadi John” who executed Western hostages on camera, was killed by a U.S. drone strike in Raqqa on October 27, 2015.

Kerry and Lavrov to Discuss Syrian Peace Talks

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will meet today at the World Economic Forum to discuss the upcoming round of peace talks on the Syrian civil war. Russian officials have said that the meeting could clarify when the talks are set to start — the talks are scheduled for January 25, but the United Nations has not sent formal invitations due to differences among the parties about the Syrian opposition’s representation. The productivity of the planned negotiations could be affected by the modest gains made by the Assad regime and Russian airstrikes, the Washington Post reports.

Headlines

• The Turkish government is targeting mayors and local representatives belonging to the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party for prosecution; 18 mayors and nearly 50 local representatives are currently facing charges brought in recent weeks.

• During a visit to Saudi Arabia, Chinese President Xi Jinping issued a joint statement with Saudi Arabia stating his support for the “unity, independence and sovereignty of Yemen” and the Hadi government; Xi is expected to also visit Egypt and Iran during his trip to the Middle East.

• The head of Iran’s central bank said yesterday that it has begun accessing some of the frozen assets made available after the implementation of the nuclear agreement and that $32 billion assets will be freed under the deal.

• The United States is looking to increase the number of trainers working with Iraqi military and police forces, U.S. Secretary of Defense told reporters during a trip to Europe; the increase in trainers would include U.S. troops, but the United States is also talking to coalition countries about increasing their training commitments.

• Oman has closed two border crossings with Yemen because of security concerns; the closures happened earlier this year but were only confirmed by Omani officials today.

Arguments and Analysis

“Al-Qa’ida and the Islamic State Benefit as Yemen War Drags On” (Gregory D. Johnsen, CTC Sentinel)

“The Islamic State’s primary goal throughout 2016 will be to further divide the country through sectarian attacks, recreating an Iraqi-style Sunni–Shi`a civil war in Yemen. The more sectarian the war becomes, the stronger the Islamic State will grow as it seeks to portray itself as the true defender of Sunni Islam. Already, the group has cast itself as more hardline than AQAP. In Yemen, AQAP adheres to rules of engagement such as refraining from bombing mosques; the Islamic State has no such limits on its attacks. Indeed, much of its strategy, dating back to Zarqawi’s time in Iraq, has emphasized exactly these types of attacks as a way of attracting recruits who might otherwise be drawn to AQAP.”

“The Islamic State’s Territorial Methodology” (Aaron Y. Zelin, Washington Institute for Near East Policy)

“Examination of thousands of IS media products resulted in a framework that can help make better sense of IS’s advances, irrespective of location. The framework is divided into two stages: pre- or partial territorial control and full territorial control. Within these two categories are five elements, or phases, of establishing control: intelligence, military, dawa (missionary activities), hisba (moral policing and consumer protection), and governance. Although hisba would generally be considered part of IS’s governance apparatus, I separated the two to distinguish the level of advancement and sophistication associated with meting out justice versus that associated with actual services, administration, and economic activity, since the former is easier to impose than the latter to set up. Overall, the process is linear, though that does not mean it fits perfectly in every scenario, since its progress depends on the speed with which IS takes control of a territory. If it is more rapid than gradual, the chances are greater of IS’s skipping steps and/or their becoming more blurred, especially in the dawa, hisba, and governance areas.”

-J. Dana Stuster

GEORGE OURFALIAN/AFP/Getty Images