Aid Convoys Sent to Besieged Towns as Nations Prepare for New Ceasefire Talks

U.N. Special Envoy to Syria Staffan de Mistura said last night that aid convoys will be dispatched from Damascus to areas of acute humanitarian need. Those convoys will be sent to besieged towns, including the rebel-held towns of Madaya and Zabadani, cut off by regime forces, and regime-held towns of Fua and Kefraya, cut off by rebels. Aid will also be delivered to war-torn neighborhoods in Damascus, and the United Nations is discussing airdropping supplies to Deir ez-Zor, which has been surrounded by the Islamic State.

Russian and U.S. military officials are expected to meet later this week to discuss the implementation of a ceasefire that was tentatively agreed to last week. Ahead of those talks, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov rejected a proposal by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to put in place “a kind of no-fly zone.” Gatilov said that a no-fly zone would require the Assad regime’s permission and approval from the U.N. Security Council. Also today, Turkey reiterated its interest in establishing a buffer zone to host refugees and block Kurdish forces from expanding the area under their control.

Saudi Arabia Reaches Deal to Freeze Level of Oil Output, Iran Declines to Participate

In an effort to control declining oil prices, Saudi Arabia reached an agreement yesterday with Russia, Venezuela, and Qatar to freeze oil production at their January levels. The arrangement, reached in Doha, stops short of cutting oil output, though Saudi Arabia said it would consider more options. The deal is “the first significant cooperation between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in 15 years,” according to Bloomberg. Iran responded to the agreement today by saying it would not participate in the production-level freeze and would continue to ramp up production to pre-sanctions levels.

Headlines

• Three Americans who were abducted in Iraq last month have been released to U.S. embassy staff, according to the State Department; previous reports identified the men as security contractors at the airport in Baghdad and their captors as members of a Shia militia.

• Russia will deliver an order of S-300 surface-to-air missiles to Iran this week after years of delays under the sanctions regime against the country, according to Russian media; Russia is also expected to sign a deal to sell Iran Sukhoi Su-30SM fighter jets.

• Former U.N. Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali died in Egypt at the age of 93 after being admitted to a hospital with a broken leg; Boutros-Ghali helped negotiate the Camp David Accords as a diplomat for Anwar Sadat before serving in the U.N.’s top post during the 1990s.

• The four U.S. journalists who were arrested in Bahrain on Sunday and released on Tuesday have left the country despite reportedly being charged with “illegally assembling with the intent to commit a crime.”

• The United Nations is preparing to make an urgent aid request of $1.8 billion from international donors for humanitarian assistance in Yemen.

Arguments and Analysis

“Saudi Foreign Policy Is in a State of Flux” (Jane Kinninmont, Chatham House)

“So far it is mainly the tools, and the ambition, that have changed, rather than the overall direction of foreign policy. As Saudi diplomats and academics articulate it, the Saudi authorities essentially want to protect their own internal stability; to be surrounded by friendly regimes that will do business with them and accept a Western role in the region; and to prevent the empowerment of groups with a transnational agenda that would destabilize Al Saud rule from bases in other countries. Thus, the rivalry with Iran has less to do with ethnic and sectarian issues than with opposition to Iranian power and influence in the region, just as the country saw Nasser’s pan-Arabism as an enemy. Tensions with Iran are at a particularly high pitch today because of Saudi objections to Iran’s role in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as well as Saudi concerns that the US is failing to contain or deter Iran’s expansion of influence. However, Saudi Arabia is also cultivating non-state actors (whether tribes, militias or political parties), and is deeply involved in other countries’ internal politics. Saudi diplomats argue they are merely responding to Iran’s cultivation of non-state actors and regional proxies. But both are contributing to trans-border conflicts and a general weakening of sovereignty of several states in the region.”

“What the nuclear deal means for moderates in Iranian politics” (Richard Nephew, Markaz)

“Suggesting that there is a long, potential arc of Iranian policy vis-à-vis the United States and our interests is not the same as suggesting that the relationship will necessarily improve. It might get far worse, either because of decisions made in Tehran or Washington, much less unforeseen issues that might arise. Mindful of this, Washington should embrace the opportunity afforded by the JCPOA to restore ties frayed with other countries in the Middle East and to ensure that Iran understands that, while it has a place in the region, it will not be permitted to dominate it. This should include continued attempts by the Obama and future administrations to build a new relationship with Iran. The United States should also maintain some sense of humility. Not every development in Iran will have an American nexus, an American cause, or an American solution. The U.S. objective should be to demonstrate that we will not abandon our partners or interests in the Middle East, or our values in dealing with countries in the region. We must also make clear that we do not seek further confrontation with Iran as we see how that country continues to evolve.”

-J. Dana Stuster

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