Situation Report: Bernie staffs up; Pentagon worried about Russian and Chinese subs; Obama heads to the State Dept.; Russia remains top threat; Pentagon day on Capitol Hill; Kerry says no to no-fly zone; and lots more

By Paul McLeary with Adam Rawnsley

Locked down. After enduring weeks of withering criticism from the Hillary Clinton campaign over his lack for foreign policy credentials, Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has finally started pulling a team together. FP’s John Hudson reveals that Sanders tapped Washington think tanker Bill French to help craft his foreign policy messaging and coordinate with outside advisors and experts.

A policy analyst at the National Security Network, a nonprofit policy group dedicated to building “a strong progressive national security and counter conservative spin,” French has testified on Capitol Hill about combatting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, among other topics. Now, to fill the bench. Hudson notes that French will have his work cut out for him. As reported by Foreign Policy, “Clinton’s campaign has already amassed an army of several hundred, perhaps even more than a thousand, foreign policy advisors to assist the campaign.” Washington’s a big town, however, and there’s plenty of foreign policy analysis to go around. Just ask.

There’s a comfort in familiarity. If there’s one thing that most in the Pentagon agree on these days, it’s the existential threat presented by Russia. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley reminded us of that Wednesday when he told the Senate Appropriations Committee that Moscow is “the No. 1 threat to the United States.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s nukes, ships, submarines, fighter jets and tank columns make Russia “the only country on Earth that has the capability to be an existential threat to the United States,” Milley said. “In addition to having the capability, they have also demonstrated aggressive intent, at least since 2008, by invading countries and using national power in ways that are not favorable to U.S. interests.” Milley told the panel that he wants to reverse an earlier Army decision to pull an infantry brigade out of Alaska, due to Moscow “asserting themselves in the Pacific, and specifically in the Arctic.”

Under the waves. The commander of American forces in the Pacific is also warily eyeing Russian moves, writes FP’s Paul McLeary. And he’s worried the United States doesn’t have enough submarines to meet the rapidly modernizing fleets being put to sea by China and Russia. Adm. Harry Harris told a congressional panel that the U.S. Pacific Command “suffers shortage of submarines today, my requirements are not being met.” At the same time that Russia and China rapidly build new generations of nuclear-powered ballistic missile subs that are already beginning to ply the waters of the Pacific, Harris warned that the U.S. Navy’s attack sub fleet will fall from 52 today to 41 in 2028, before gradually clawing back to 50 by 2044.

Speaking of China, the Center for Strategic and International Studies has a cool new interactive map of Chinese capabilities in the South China Sea.

Sit down. President Barack Obama and National Security Advisor Susan Rice met Wednesday with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the White House, a day after he sat down with Secretary of State John Kerry. According to a statement from the White House, they “candidly discussed maritime issues, with Ambassador Rice urging China to take concrete steps to address U.S. and regional concerns.”

Go big. Kerry told a Senate panel Wednesday that creating a no-fly and “safe” zone in Syria is more complicated than many of its proponents believe. Using previously unreleased estimates, Kerry said, “our Pentagon estimates that to have a true safe zone in the north of the country you may have upwards of fifteen to thirty thousand troops. Now are we ready to authorize that? Are we ready to put them on the ground?”

Road show. Obama will host a meeting of his National Security Council at the State Department Thursday afternoon, following sessions at the Pentagon and National Counterterrorism Center late last year. The meeting will focus on the fight against the Islamic State “and other regional issues,” according to the White House. Obama will then make a statement at about 5:30 p.m.

Morning, all. Thanks for clicking on through to kick off the last full week of February. As always, if you have any thoughts, announcements, tips, or national security-related events to share, please pass them along to SitRep HQ! Best way is to send them to: paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or on Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley.

Who’s where when

9:00 a.m. Alphabet soup. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper; CIA Director John Brennan, FBI Director James Comey; Director of the National Counterterrorism Center Nicholas Rasmussen; Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart; and Deputy Director of the NSA Rick Ledgett, appear before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence to talk on worldwide threats. Watch here.

9:30 a.m. Acting Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness Brad Carson and Deputy General Counsel Jennifer O’Connor greet the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday to assess their nominations to be Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness and General Counsel of the Department of Defense, respectively. Watch here.

10:00 a.m. Defense Secretary Ash Carter and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford make a rare appearance together, along with Pentagon Comptroller and CFO Mike McCord, to talk budgets with the House Appropriations Committee. Watch here.

10:00 a.m. U.S. Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, commander, U.S. European Command, heads on over to the House Armed Services Committee to talk about security challenges in Europe. Watch here.

1:15 p.m. Adm. Harry Harris, commander, U.S. Pacific Command will brief the press in the Pentagon Briefing Room. Watch here.

Syria

The U.N.’s World Food Program has dropped 21 tons of aid pallets around the city of Deir Ezzor, which is currently besieged by the Islamic State. The move comes weeks after criticism of the U.N. for its failure to provide aid drops to civilians in ravaged cities and towns populated by opponents of the Assad regime. U.N. humanitarian aid chief Stephen O’Brien said the agency is working on drops that should reach another 170,000 people throughout Syria.

The Islamic State in Syria has carried out more attacks since Russia began bombing rebels in the country, using the Russian air campaign as cover to relieve pressure from mounting losses in Iraq, the Washington Post reports. According to data collected by IHS Jane’s, the Islamic State carried out 935 attacks in Syria from October through December 2015, corresponding to the beginning of Russia’s air campaign, while attacks in Iraq were down. Despite the uptick in attacks, the Islamic State is nonetheless still losing territory in Syria, despite beginning to put pressure on Syrian government forces in the country’s west.

Gulf

Explosively Formed Penetrators (EFPs), the improvised bombs that can pierce through armored vehicles, were a hallmark of Iran’s covert war against the U.S. in Iraq, but the Iranian weapons are making a comeback in the Gulf, writes the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Michael Knights. Since 2013, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has been smuggling EFPs into Bahrain and Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, setting up local bomb-making workshops and using Iranian-backed Shia militias in Iraq to train local proxies in their use. Iran could signal its clients to start using the weapons if Saudi Arabia becomes more deeply involved in Syria, Knights argues.

Libya

It appears that it’s not just U.S. commandos on the ground in Libya. French special operations forces and intelligence officers from France’s Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure have touched down in Libya, according to a report from the French newspaper Le Monde. The government has launched an investigation in order to find out the source of the leak.

The situation between competing armed political factions in Libya is complex, to say the least. Reuters breaks it down a bit in a piece that takes stock of the Misrata-based fighters battling with the Islamic State, the Tripoli-based faction of Islamist-leaning brigades, and Libya’s eastern government which is “backed by an alliance including the Libyan National Army led by former Gaddafi ally-turned rebel Gen. Khalifa Haftar, and a brigade controlling oil ports. Its ranks are split, including federalists looking for more autonomy for their eastern region.” Got all that?

The New York Times also has a short Q&A running down who is where in Libya, helpfully comparing the political situation on the ground there to Game of Thrones. So there’s that.

Afghanistan

This year, say it with Kalashnikov. Reuters reports that the Russian government announced that it’s giving the Afghan government a gift of 10,000 automatic rifles along with ammunition as part of a continuing aid agreement. Russia recently ended its cooperation with the U.S. on Afghan security issues as relations have soured over the wars in Ukraine and Syria, but Moscow maintains a security relationship with the Afghan government, and has simultaneously sought to build bridges with the Taliban.

Ukraine

The open source investigations website Bellingcat has published a report claiming to identify the Russian military unit and individual troops involved in the downing of Malaysian Airline flight MH17 over Ukraine. The report, titled MH17: Potential Suspects and Witnesses from the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, suggests that the 2nd Battalion of the 53rd Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, operating in Ukraine at the time, may have been responsible for firing the Buk missile system which downed the civilian airliner.

Down under

The Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s government has released a defense white paper outlining plans for future defense spending. The paper calls for a $30 billion increase in Australia’s defense budget over the next decade. In response to the increasing tensions in the South China Sea and instability around the world, the government outlined a plan to buy a dozen submarines, Australia’s first armed drones and begin preparing for a ballistic missile defense system.

Terror tech

The federal government is telling big time tech firms like Facebook, Twitter, and Google that countering violent extremism sounds more like a “you” problem than an “us” problem. The Justice Department met with representatives of the companies Wednesday and counterterrorism officials are now saying that they’re incapable of countering jihadist groups’ messaging online. Rather, they suggested the tech industry along with civil society groups should lead such programs.

Quote of the day
“Acronyms kill, ma’am.” — U.S. Pacific Command chief Adm. Harry B. Harris Jr., testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.