Syrian Offensive in Latakia Continues Despite Ceasefire

Syrian government troops are continuing an assault on rebel positions in Latakia Province today, despite the internationally-brokered ceasefire remaining in effect. In particular, Assad regime forces are trying to seize Kabani Hill, a strategic position overlooking the rebel-held city of Jisr al-Shughour. Jabhat al-Nusra, which is not a party to the ceasefire, is present in the area, but so are more moderate rebel groups. “The regime and militias are trying to storm (the hill) under very fierce Russian air cover and artillery fire,” a Free Syrian Army spokesman spokesman told Reuters. Another rebel commander said that the ceasefire was never felt on some frontlines. “Battles continue in vital areas that the regime wants, and where there was no truce in the first place. There is bombardment and battles…We are in the fifth day and there is no change in these areas.”

Jordan Raids Islamic State Hideouts in Irbid

Jordanian security forces clashed with militants in a series of armed raids last night in Irbid, near the Jordan-Syria border. At least 30 Islamic State suspects were arrested at a residential building in a Palestinian refugee camp. Seven others were killed in clashes, as was one Jordanian security officer.

Headlines

• The United States has captured and detained a member of the Islamic State in Iraq for interrogation; the United States has previously held and interrogated one other member of the Islamic State in Iraq, Abu Sayyaf, which yielded important intelligence on the group’s oil network.

• With relations strained between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, the Gulf Cooperation Council formally designated Hezbollah a terrorist group today, citing specifically the organization’s operations in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.

• Turkey has refused to allow ships participating in a NATO operation to monitor and stem the flow of refugees to Europe from entering Turkish territorial waters despite agreeing to the plan on February 8.

• Doctors without Borders reported another airstrike in Saudi Arabia’s air campaign in Yemen that came dangerously close to a medical facility in Saada Province, where four people were killed in a previous strike in January.

• The United Arab Emirates has sentenced a man to three years in prison for circulating a poem on the messaging app WhatsApp that “mocked” Emirati soldiers’ deaths in the country’s intervention in Yemen.

Arguments and Analysis

“Yemen and the ‘Man on Horseback’” (Nabeel Khoury, MENASource)

“Yemeni President Abdrabbo Mansour Hadi, currently residing in Riyadh, has appointed General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar to the post of Deputy Commander of Yemen’s Armed Forces — in essence giving him official command of the portion of Yemen’s military still loyal to President Hadi. Always one of Yemen’s top generals, Ali Mohsen was for years considered Yemen’s strong man, second in influence and power only to former president Ali Abdallah Saleh. Since 2012, Ali Mohsen played a behind-the-scenes role as military counselor out of offices in Riyadh. Hadi, in pulling him out of the shadows, is betting the aging general can unite tribal and southern anti-Houthi forces for a final battle to retake the capital Sana’a. Saudi leaders, who have had a longstanding relationship with Ali Mohsen, hope a strong military hand would not only win the war on the ground, but also help put Yemen’s state back together in the aftermath. While a potentially a clever tactical move, Hadi risks being sidelined by Ali Mohsen if and when his forces retake Sana’a. The subsequent military and political challenges facing Ali Mohsen will also likely frustrate the Saudi hope for stability along their southern borders; tribes and factions in both northern and southern Yemen deem the general’s reputed ties to conservative Salafi forces unacceptable. Even a takeover of the capital will not pacify the country under his leadership. In Yemen, creating stability out of chaos via a man on horseback may be a remedy whose time has come and gone.”

“How Iran’s elections marginalized radicals and consolidated a new political center” (Shervin Malekzadeh, Monkey Cage)

“These elections marked the further consolidation of the centrist moment in Iranian politics heralded by Hassan Rouhani’s presidential victory in 2013, itself the culmination of the aborted Green Wave coalition led by Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi in 2009. The key instrument in this process was the announcement of the List of Hope alliance led by the candidacies of Ali Motahari and Mohammad Reza Aref, erstwhile political rivals on the same slate of legislative candidates. This overlap signaled the emergence of coalition politics as a possible solution for the perils of presidential politics in Iran, an outcome not at all unlike what is already taking place in Brazil and post-Pinochet Chile.”

-J. Dana Stuster

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