Russia to Withdraw Intervention Force from Syria

In a surprise move, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced yesterday that Russia’s intervention on behalf of the Assad regime has been a success and that Moscow will begin withdrawing forces from the country. “The effective work of our military created the conditions for the start of the peace process. I believe that the task put before the defence ministry and Russian armed forces has, on the whole, been fulfilled,” he said. Though there is no set time for the withdrawal and some Russian forces are expected to remain in Syria, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said today that fighter jets at Hmeimin air base are being prepped for flights back to Russia and equipment is being loaded on cargo planes. Russia will maintain a presence at Hmeimin and its naval base at Tartus, both located in the far west of Syria. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif responded to the news by saying that Russia’s withdrawal could be a “positive sign.” “The fact that Russia announced they are withdrawing part of its forces indicates that they don’t see an imminent need for resort to force in maintaining the cease-fire,” he told reporters. The news of Russia’s preparations for withdrawal comes as U.N.-brokered proximity talks between the regime and opposition resume in Geneva. U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura said in a statement that the withdrawal is a “significant development” that he hopes will have a “positive impact” on the talks.

Libyan Reconciliation Government Ready to Assume Power

The reconciliation government in Libya, called the Government of National Accord, announced over the weekend that it had received the endorsement of the majority of the previous internationally-recognized government and was now ready to assume power. The statement is the culmination of months of political jockeying to reach a compromise between feuding rival governments. The Government of National Accord says they will now try to move to Tripoli to take control of the country. An advance team for the government was detained and accused of plotting a coup, but there have also been some positive signs in negotiations with local militias, at least one of which has agreed to restore access to critical oil fields.

Headlines

• U.S. officials say they have confirmed that senior Islamic State commander Omar al-Shishani has died of wounds sustained in a drone strike earlier this month that targeted a shura meeting he was attending.

• Swedish authorities have arrested an asylum seeker, Haisam Omar Sakhanh, on charges of committing a crime against international law; an investigation of Sakhanh revealed he had fought in the Syrian opposition and linked him to a video in which he executes captured Assad regime forces.

• The Algerian military has elevated its state of alert along its border with Libya following an incident in which Algerian troops clashed with Islamist militants, killing three and seizing a weapons cache that included surface-to-air missiles.

• Two Emirati pilots were killed when their Mirage fighter jet crashed during a bombing run near Aden, Yemen, yesterday; a statement from the Saudi-led military coalition said the plane experienced a technical failure before crashing into a mountain.

• Giuseppe Pignatone, Italy’s chief prosecutor, is in Egypt this week to investigate the death of Italian student Giulio Regini; Italian authorities said that Egypt has not cooperated with their requests for information about Regini’s death and that Pignatone’s visit is “a very important opportunity to give the cooperation regarding the tragic and barbaric murder of our researcher, which until now has not been sufficient.”

Arguments and Analysis

“Exploiting Disorder: Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State” (International Crisis Group)

“But if roots are complex, the catalyst is clear enough. The descent of most of the 2011 Arab revolutions into chaos has opened enormous opportunity for extremists. Movements have gathered force as crises have festered and evolved, as money, weapons and fighters flow in, as violence escalates. Mounting enmity between states means regional powers worry less about extremists than about traditional rivals, leverage the fight against IS against other enemies or quietly indulge jihadists as proxies. Especially in the Middle East, jihadists’ expansion is more a product of instability than its primary driver; is due more to radicalisation during crises than beforehand; and owes more to fighting between their enemies than to their own strengths. Rarely can such a movement gather force or seize territory outside a war zone or collapsed state. Geopolitics hinders a coherent response. The starting point should be to dial back the Saudi-Iranian rivalry that drives Sunni and Shia extremism, deepens crises across the region and is among the gravest threats to international peace and security today. Easing other tensions — between Turkey and Kurdish militants, for example, Turkey and Russia, conservative Arab regimes and the Muslim Brotherhood, Pakistan and India, even Russia and the West — is also essential. In Libya, Syria and Yemen, tackling jihadists requires forging new orders attractive enough to deplete their ranks and unite other forces. Of course, none of this is easy. But redoubling efforts to narrow other fault lines would be wiser than papering them over in an illusion of consensus against ‘violent extremism’.”

“The silver lining to the EU-Turkey migration deal” (Kemal Kerisci, Order from Chaos)

“The deal reached between the European Union and Turkey last week to stem the flow of migrants into Europe has been met with considerable criticism (as my colleague Matteo Garavoglia, among others, have pointed out). Some say the deal is a product of raw cynicism and call it ‘horse-trading.’ Others, particularly human rights organizations and the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), are concerned that the deal will not provide the asylum seekers, smuggled into the EU through Turkey, with the protection due to them under EU and international law. Some also see the deal as an ironic signal of the EU’s readiness to cozy up to Turkey’s deeply-flawed democracy to safeguard the EU’s own liberal order. They are appalled that the EU would ignore the growing authoritarianism in Turkey — where the government has lately shown little respect for freedom of expression and Kurdish civilians caught in the crossfire in southeastern Turkey. But could there be a silver lining to this problematic deal? And is there a way it could simultaneously benefit the EU, Turkish democracy, and (most importantly) the interests of the Syrian refugees?”

-J. Dana Stuster

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