Manhunt in Brussels for Bombmaker Who Trained in Syria

The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for yesterday’s coordinated bomb attacks in Brussels, which have left 31 people dead so far and 260 wounded. Authorities have identified two of the bombers as Khalid and Brahim Bakraoui, brothers who had criminal records but were not on terror watchlists. A third man, Najim Laachraoui, who has been identified by media as being at the airport before the explosions remains at large. Laachraoui, who was born in Morocco and has trained in Syria, is believed to have been the bombmaker for the Paris attacks — his DNA was found on the bomb abandoned by Salah Abdeslam during that attack. Belgian federal prosecutor Frederic Van Leeuw said this morning that he is the subject of an active manhunt.

Correction: The article previously stated that Laachraoui had been arrested by Belgian authorities. Those reports have since been retracted.

Assad Troops Advance on Palmyra as Talks Continue

While the partial ceasefire in Syria continues to hold, Assad regime troops are advancing on the Islamic State-held cities of Palmyra and Qaryatain. Those troops, backed by Russian air support, have now seized the high ground around Palmyra. “There is continuous progress by the army from all directions,” the governor of Homs told press. U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura, in Geneva for the proximity talks among the parties to the war, said the attacks in Brussels “reminds us that … we have no time to lose.” Though the regime delegation continues to be obstinate on the issue political transition, de Mistura said that progress is being made to prepare the parties for the next round of talks. The current set of discussions are due to close tomorrow.

Headlines

• A U.S. airstrike targeting a training camp run by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula killed 50 militants and wounded 30 others west of the AQAP-occupied city of Mukalla, Yemen.

• Turkish authorities have arrested three men on the suspicion that they were plotting attacks on German diplomatic targets on behalf of the Islamic State; Germany closed several of its diplomatic facilities in Turkey last Thursday citing the terror threat.

• Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced a cabinet reshuffle today, appointing new officials to 10 posts, including justice minister, finance minister, investment minister, labor minister, tourism minister, and others.

• The U.N. envoy to Libya, Martin Kobler, who has been trying to coordinate the implementation of an agreement to form a unity government, said on Twitter yesterday that he has had to cancel a trip to Libya because the government in Tripoli refuses to allow him to land there.

• Israeli police have arrested 1,200 unauthorized Palestinian workers and 150 employers over the past two weeks in an effort to curb the frequent stabbing attacks; under a new law, employers who hire Palestinian workers without proper permits could face tough sentences and years in prison.

Arguments and Analysis

“Brussels’ Big Terrorism Problem” (Clint Watts, Foreign Policy Research Institute)

“The failure to detect and interdict the Paris attacks in November seemed to point to a problem of capacity. European countries, having stood by and watched for years as their angry boys were radicalized and recruited into the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, seemed to have far too many terrorism suspects and resulting leads to manage. The volume of potential terrorists to cover seemingly exceeded the capacity of European authorities. In November, I discussed the ‘Iceberg Theory’ of terrorist plots, where for the eight to ten Paris attackers, ‘we should look for two, three, or possibly four dozen extremist facilitators and supporters between Syria and France.’ Today I suspect we are seeing more of Europe’s terrorism iceberg. Last week’s arrest of Abdelslam and today’s failure to detect and disrupt a major terrorist attack similar to that of Paris suggests a far more ominous counterterrorism problem in Europe — incompetence. Belgian authorities arrested Abdelslam in Molenbeek, an area swept repeatedly by counterterrorism authorities in recent months. The arrest of Abdelslam should have immediately triggered an intense buildup in law enforcement activity to disrupt a likely retaliatory attack. Additionally, today’s attacks at the airport and in the subway system used suicide missions armed with explosives. The use of explosives suggests that a significant terrorist facilitation network likely remains in Europe empowering attacks al Qaeda always dreamed of executing but for which they lacked the operational support capability.”

“Inside Hamas, a bitter and very personal battle for control” (Avi Isacharoff, Times of Israel)

“[Yahya] Sinwar’s release from prison wrought a change in the structure of the entire leadership. Sinwar began asserting himself as Hamas’s Number One man in Gaza: One of the founders of the Izz a-Din al-Qassam military brigades, he had tried to scuttle the Shalit deal, even though it wound up securing his freedom after 22 years, because he felt it made too many concessions. That helped him solidify the respect of all Hamas’s members. Sinwar has worked to change Hamas’s priorities. For him, Gaza is not a stepping-stone in a wider strategy of taking over the West Bank and the PLO, as it is for [Khaled] Mashaal. Rather, Gaza is a separate and sanctified goal: the first and only entity where the Muslim Brotherhood’s doctrine held sway. The members of the political bureau abroad see a takeover of the entire Palestinian leadership as an end that justifies any means, including concessions in Gaza if required. Not so, for Sinwar. Another strategic issue on which the two camps are divided has to do with the clash of civilizations in the Middle East and the fight between the Sunnis and the Shi’ites. While Mashaal and his group made clear their reservations regarding the ‘Shi’ite axis’ as far back as 2011, Sinwar and his comrades in the Gaza military wing refused to part ways with their friends in Tehran and Damascus.”

-J. Dana Stuster

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