SitRep: More U.S. Commandos, Choppers, Bases, Hacking ISIS

Here it comes. The slow drip of American escalation in Syria and Iraq continues. Just a week after it emerged that the Obama administration had drawn up a list of weapons it would allow allies to ship to Syrian rebels if the current shaky ceasefire fails, comes word that more U.S. commandos may be on their way, as well. The incremental moves to add more firepower and put more Americans close to the front lines come as officials in Washington insist the Islamic State may be wobbly after 20 months of U.S. and coalition airstrikes, along with some gains by the Iraqi army near Mosul.

As many as 200 more American special operators could head to Syria under the plan to help train and advise the rebels fighting ISIS, bolstering the roughly 50 who are there now. And in Iraq, the Pentagon is again offering its Apache attack helicopters to help in the fight to retake Mosul. (The U.S. military had offered to fly Apaches during last year’s offensive to push ISIS out of the city of Ramadi, but Baghdad turned the offer down.) In related news, some anonymous Pentagon officials have also started bragging about how they’re hacking ISIS computers and using the information to launch new operations.

Leap frog. Several U.S. officials have also indicated Washington’s willingness to push U.S. troops closer to Mosul as Iraqi troops advance on the city, housing them at a series of small combat outposts just behind the front lines. There are already at least 100 Marines — out of about 5,000 U.S. troops in Iraq — at a small outpost south of Mosul, firing daily howitzer volleys at ISIS fighters in combat with Iraqi forces. One Marine at the base has already been killed in an ISIS rocket attack, and the base has come under small arms fire on other occasions.

Fractious politics in Baghdad threatens any coordinated Iraqi action against ISIS, however, bringing top U.S. officials to the capitol as Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi  struggles with a crumbling economy, a restless public, and rival Shiite factions grasping for power.

General order. The United States hasn’t had a retired general in the White House since Ike left town in the early 1960s, and few have even taken a shot at the highest office in the land. Despite a new campaign among some Republican operatives to recruit retired Marine general James Mattis to make a last-minute bid to snatch the race away from Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, the push is likely to fail, and for very good reason, write FP’s Dan De Luce and Paul McLeary. It’s pretty simple, really: after a lifetime spent climbing the military’s very rigid leadership ladder, spending the better part of a year kissing babies and eating fried food at country fairs while kowtowing to voters just doesn’t sound all that appealing.

A new nuclear arms race? Washington and Beijing are in a race to develop an advanced warhead called a “hypersonic glide vehicle” that would be almost unstoppable by current anti-missile technologies. The idea is that the warhead would fly into space on a traditional long-range missile before separating and twisting through the atmosphere at more than a mile a second. An American attempt to test the new technology literally blew up in 2014, but work continues. The Chinese have tested their version six times with a bit more success, according to reports. “We are witnessing the opening salvos of an arms race,” James M. Acton, a senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told a congressional commission last year.

Thanks for clicking on through this morning as we wrap up another week of SitRep. As always, if you have any thoughts, announcements, tips, or national  security-related events to share, please pass them along to SitRep HQ. Best way is to send them to: paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or on Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley.

Do a barrel roll!

The U.S. is protesting once again after another Russian provocation against the U.S. military in the Baltic Sea. U.S. European Command says a Russian Su-27 fighter jet did a barrel roll over the top of an Air Force RC-135 spy plane, coming within 50 feet of the aircraft. Russia’s Defense Ministry denied the incident took place, saying that the Russian Su-27 simply moved within visual range of the RC-135 and left after identifying the aircraft. The U.S. aircraft, known as the “Rivet Joint” is one of the Pentagon’s most sensitive spy planes. The incident comes less than a week after a Russian Su-24 buzzed the USS Donald Cook, coming with 30 feet of the ship as it sailed through the Baltic Sea.

North Korea

South Korean President Park Geun-hye says that “preparations for a fifth [North Korean] nuclear test have been detected.” What those preparations are or how South Korea detected them, Park didn’t say. The statement follows a report from 38 North, which analyzed satellite imagery from North Korea’s nuclear test site. The report showed few signs of increased activity but concluded that the North could potentially carry out another nuclear test at any moment. The North has been on a provocative roll lately, carrying out a nuclear test in January and a string of rocket and missile tests since then.

China

China says it landed a military aircraft on a disputed island in the South China Sea’s Fiery Cross Reef, the BBC reports. While China has landed jets on its contested maritime territories before, this incident — which Chinese officials says involved the evacuation of three injured workers — is the first time the news of a landing has come from China itself, rather than through leaks in foreign media. Fiery Cross Reef is claimed by a number of countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei.

Philippines

The Defense Department is sending the A-10 Warthog, the ugly-as-sin close air support plane beloved of ground troops, to the Philippines. The Defense Department said Friday that the U.S. will send five A-10, along with HH-60G Pave Hawk and MC-130H Combat Talon planes, for a rotation to the Philippines as part of recently-signed Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement between the U.S. and Philippines.

The Islamic State

The Islamic State is expanding its inventory of drones, Military Times reports. Thus far group’s drones are comprised primarily of smaller commercial or improvised vehicles used for tactical reconnaissance on the battlefield. Over the course of the past few months they’ve showed up in a handful of incidents in Iraq. Iraq’s Ministry of Defense released pictures of a DJI Phantom drone, available at Amazon.com and Apple Stores, captured from Islamic State fighters. The U.S. also destroyed an Islamic State drone in an airstrike last month targeting the jihadist responsible for a rocket attack on a firebase in Iraq which killed a U.S. Marine.

Iraq

The U.S. is trying to get its Gulf allies to pitch in and pick up the tab for the reconstruction of towns and cities ravaged by the Islamic State in Iraq. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said he’d make the case to Arab states during his trip to the region this week. That might be a tough sell, however, as the slump in global oil prices has taken a bite out of the budgets for oil exporters like Saudi Arabia. Fixing areas ravaged by the Islamic State and the battles to oust it won’t come cheap, either. One estimate puts the cost of rebuilding Ramadi at upwards of $10 billion.

Iran

Iran showed off part of a S-300 air defense system shipped from Russia during an annual parade for the celebration of Army Day. Iran displayed S-300 missile tubes and an associated radar system for the festivities, marking another confirmation of Russia’s delivery on the much-awaited advanced air defense system — in addition to footage of the system being driven down a road in Iran’s coastal Gilan Province. Iran has been trying to get its hands on the S-300 since 2007, but Russia has canceled and delayed the contract at times, finally agreeing to make good on it in the summer of 2015.

Weekend long reads

The Atlantic’s Anand Gopal has a lengthy and fascinating look into bleak circumstances that Iraqi Sunni families find themselves in when moving from life under the Islamic State’s rule to life under the often sectarian Iraqi army and police.

And finally…

Parody accounts are what make Twitter worthwhile. So fire up your Twitter client and enjoy the latest sendup of national security buzzword clickbait, @natsec_madlibs. Ponder its deepest, most challenging questions, such as “Can drones be deterred in cyberspace?”

Photo Credit: U.S. Army