The Cable

Prospect of a Trump Win Send Global Markets Into Tailspin

Asian markets and Dow futures are sharply down as the chances of a Trump presidency increase.


Global economic indicators are beginning to tremble at the thought that Republican Donald Trump could pull off the improbable and win the American presidency.

The Mexican peso is now at its lowest level in 20 years against the U.S. dollar. Consistently throughout the campaign, the value of the Mexican currency has gone down as the chances of a Trump presidency have increased.

Future bets on the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down as much as 830 points late Tuesday as the results of the 2016 election continue to roll in. A victory by Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was widely believed to be priced into the stock market. Trump’s win, while far from certain, would send global markets into a tailspin.

In Asia early Wednesday, stocks were down after opening higher on the hopes of a Clinton victory. But as results from U.S. states poured in, the trend reversed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is now down by 2.8 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is lower by 1.9 percent, and the Shanghai Composite in China is 0.7% lower.

A Trump win will throw markets across the world into disarray on Wednesday. He has promised to tear up international trade deals, slap steep tariffs on foreign goods, and is certain to add an element of uncertainty to the world’s economy that is unprecedented in modern times. According to Oxford Economics, a British forecasting firm, his win would cost the U.S. economy $1 trillion over the next five years.

This post has been updated.

Photo credit: RALPH FRESCO/Getty Images

David Francis was a senior reporter for Foreign Policy, where he covered international finance. @davidcfrancis

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