SitRep: Obama Makes His Counterterrorism Case; The Trump Team’s Conspiracy Theories

Obama makes his case. President Barack Obama is set to deliver the closing argument that his counterterrorism policies have been effective during a speech Tuesday at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla. The talk that comes just weeks before his administration prepares to hand the fight off to President-elect Donald Trump, who has criticized Obama for not being tough enough in countering the Islamic State and other threats.

The speech comes on the same day that Trump will announce the nomination of retired general — and forceful Obama critic — James Mattis to be his defense secretary.

Obama is expected to offer a broad defense of his foreign policy, including drawing down the population of Gitmo, trying terrorist suspects in domestic courts, and rolling back ISIS in Iraq and Syria, defense officials say. The president has been “much more aggressive” about going after terrorists than any other president, Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes told reporters Monday, adding, “there is a record of terrorists he has taken off the battlefield, including leadership.”

Addressing criticisms made by Trump, Mattis, and others, Rhodes added that “people can argue whether certain policies will be better to address [threats],” but  “all we can do is put out why we did what we did and why we believe the approach we have left in the place is the right one.”

MacDill — home to the U.S. Central Command and U.S. Special Operations Command — is the hub of the U.S.-led wars on ISIS, al Qaeda, and the Taliban.

The juxtaposition with the Mattis announcement sets the stage for a battle to control the narrative. It’s unclear if Mattis will speak at the Trump rally in North Carolina, but his frustrations with White House policy are well known. He stepped down as head of Central Command early in 2013 after clashing with the White House over Iran policy, and in a speech in April, Mattis said that “the bottom line on the American situation is quite clear…the next president is going to inherit a mess. That’s probably the most diplomatic word you can use for it.”

Doc dump. In order to make their case, on Monday the Obama administration released a 66-page document that offers the most expansive overview yet of the administration’s legal policy positions in its war on terrorist organizations. The White House released the document along with an accompanying transparency memo packaged with Obama’s semi-annual War Powers Resolution letter to Congress.

The takeaway. The documents, taken together, make the case that targeted killings of terrorist leaders, U.S. Special Operations raids, and airstrikes in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen, Pakistan, and Libya are grounded in the law.

Benjamin Wittes of the Brookings Institution, wrote Monday that the document brings together “for the first time major legal positions related both to the use of force overseas and major positions related to such conduct-of-hostilities issues as targeting, interrogation, and detention,” and “while it cannot in any sense bind Obama’s successor, it will make it significantly easier to identify and highlight, for better or worse, changes in legal policy and understanding of the country’s legal positions and obligations.”

The Flynns. President-elect Donald Trump’s national security advisor, retired general Mike Flynn, has become well-known for pushing wild and easily disproven conspiracy theories and Tweets. His comments have raised questions over his ability — or willingness — to separate fake news from real events, and thus may color the advice he will offer the president.

And it appears his son has the same issues. FP’s John Hudson reports that Michael Flynn, his father’s top aide, has also regularly peddled conspiracy theories about Hillary Clinton’s involvement in child sex rings and other absurdities. Hudson writes that the younger Flynn is playing a key role in the transition. He “has assisted in personnel vetting, managing his father’s schedule, and fielding transition-related emails for the general, according to a person close to the Trump transition team. ‘He also accompanies his dad to a ton of meetings,’ said the individual.”

Good morning and as always, if you have any thoughts, announcements, tips, or national  security-related events to share, please pass them along to SitRep HQ. Best way is to send them to: paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or on Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley

PEOTUS

One the of the many questions surrounding the incoming Trump administration is whether Trump’s rhetorical broadsides against shipping American jobs and production overseas will tank American fighter jet sales to India. Boeing and Lockheed Martin have proposed selling F-16 and F/A-18 fighter jets to India while allowing production to take place in India. Indian officials have been keen to get more defense companies to produce weapons locally in order to buttress its domestic capability but President-elect Trump’s vocal disapproval of companies that ship jobs overseas has many wondering whether the deal — one of many aspects of warming U.S.-India relationship in recent years — will fall apart.

Russia

Top Pentagon officials say that Russia’s increasingly aggressive behavior is driving spending decisions in the Defense Department. Speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Pentagon weapons purchasing chief Frank Kendall said that Russia’s actions are now causing leaders to think beyond just Asia and the Middle East, saying officials are reconsidering “the balance of capabilities that we’re going to need.” Air Force Secretary Deborah James also cited Russia as “the No. 1 threat” because of its nuclear capabilities.

Syria

Russia and China have once again blocked an attempt within the United Nations to push for a temporary ceasefire in Aleppo. Reuters reports that New Zealand, Egypt, and Spain drafted a resolution to establish a week-long halt in the fighting and allow humanitarian aid access only to see it vetoed by Russia and China in the Security Council. Russia claimed a pause in the fighting would aid rebels and China said the draft needed more time for debate before a vote.

Libya

The Islamic State has lost its final holdout in Libya as government forces claim control of the city of Sirte. Libyan troops had been fighting a pitched battle for Sirte with the help of American airstrikes, but officials now say the last remaining fighters for the terrorist group have surrendered. The final days of the fighting saw female suicide bombers carrying out attacks while fleeing the city with their children. Despite the Islamic State’s loss of territory, many Islamic State fighters managed to escape the city and disappear into the rest of the country.

Business of defense

The Washington Post reports that the Pentagon tried to bury a study by the Defense Business Board which claimed the Defense Department wasted $125 billion over five years. Pentagon officials reportedly worried that Congress and the White House could use the report as a basis to make deep cuts to defense spending, leading them to classify much of the data that went into the report. Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work, who commissioned the study, said the report “vastly overstates what’s really going on” and underestimated the political difficulty of cutting jobs and renegotiating defense contracts.

American arms sales took a three percent dip in 2015 while European producers saw a 13 percent rise. The U.S. still remained the top seller with 209.7 in total sales, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Russia, as well, had a good year with a 6.2 percent increase in sales in 2015. Non-traditional arms producers are beginning to nibble away at the market share of traditional arms behemoths like America, with India, South Korea, and Turkey growing their exports.

Finally…

In a little preview of next week’s Army-Navy football game, SitRep attended a hockey game at Washington’s Verizon Center (home of the Washington Capitals) on Monday night, where the Army beat Navy, 5-3. It was a surprisingly fast game for a bunch of officers playing at 10pm. The Army team was coached by Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, and featured Army Undersecretary Patrick Murphy in the ice, while Vice Adm. Ted Carter, the superintendent of the Naval Academy, coached the Navy team. Sadly, the official team of SitRep — the scrappy Buffalo Sabres — fell to the Caps in overtime after blowing a one-goal lead in the final minutes of regulation.

Photo by Carsten Koall/Getty Images