About That Other Nuclear Threat…

Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton penned an open appeal to President Donald Trump last week, recommending U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Bolton says that he has effectively been shut out of the West Wing, despite being asked by former chief strategist Steve Bannon to draw up just such a plan.

The president repeatedly railed against the deal on the campaign trail pledging to “rip it up” on Day One. Yet the administration has already twice certified Iran’s compliance. With another congressionally mandated certification deadline looming, will the administration follow through on threats to withdraw from the international agreement?

On this week’s first episode of The E.R, FP’s executive editor for the web Ben Pauker is joined by Mike Doran, Will Tobey, and Dan de Luce to weigh the options. Can the fragile framework of JCPOA hold, even if Iran plays slightly outside its bounds? Or will the White House try to re-sanction its way out of a nuclear-armed Iran?

Michael Doran is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. Doran served in the George W. Bush White House as a senior director in the National Security Council, where he was responsible for helping to devise and coordinate United States strategies on a variety of Middle East issues, including Arab-Israeli relations and U.S. efforts to contain Iran and Syria. He is the author of Ike’s Gamble: America’s Rise to Dominance in the Middle East. Follow him on Twitter: @Doranimated.

William Tobey is a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs was most recently deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration. There, he managed the U.S. government’s largest program to prevent nuclear proliferation and terrorism by detecting, securing, and disposing of dangerous nuclear material. He has participated in international negotiations ranging from the START talks with the Soviet Union to the Six Party Talks with North Korea.

Dan De Luce is FP’s chief national security correspondent. Follow him on Twitter: @dandeluce.

Ben Pauker is FP’s executive editor for the web. Follow him on Twitter: @benpauker.

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