Hong Kong Airport Reopens After Police Raid and Court Order

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Hong Kong’s airport protest turns violent, Germany’s economy slows down, and tensions rise in the Japan-South Korea dispute around two crucial commemorations.

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Is Germany headed for recession? Germany is expected to release figures on the size of its economy today amid signs that it is slowing down, particularly its manufacturing sector. Experts predict that the data will show that Germany’s GDP has contracted by 0.1 percent over the second quarter of 2019. On Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel insisted that there wasn’t yet a need for a stimulus package. Still, the signs are worrying: If the German economy did shrink, it would mark a sharp turn from its expansion in the first quarter of this year. Germany faces an uncertain economic climate, from the effects of the U.S.-China trade war to Britain’s impending exit from the European Union, which could rattle the eurozone. (Germany’s economy is Europe’s largest.)

Germany is a key trading partner for both the United States and China, and exports make up 47 percent of its economy. Its exports and its industrial output have been falling, in part due to investment uncertainty amid the trade war. (The auto industry in particular relies on Chinese demand.) If the United States raises tariffs on cars made in Europe, the situation could grow worse, the Associated Press notes.

Germany’s economy relies heavily on its manufacturing sector and it is therefore currently faring worse than others in Europe. But it is considered to be a bellwether for the eurozone. The European Central Bank, already expected to lower interest rates next month, could consider more economic stimulus measures. It is set to meet on Sept. 12.

Two significant holidays in South Korea. Today South Korea will commemorate the women forced to work in Japanese brothels during World War II, and Tuesday marks the anniversary of South Korea’s liberation from Japan—which ruled Korea from 1910 to 1945. The events come amid an ongoing dispute between the two countries over forced labor during the occupation. Both countries have removed each other from lists of preferred trading partners, and Japan has issued a travel warning for its citizens in South Korea this week.

Australia unveils Pacific climate package. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison is visiting the island nation of Tuvalu today for a meeting with Pacific leaders, where he will announce $500 million in funding for climate resilience and renewable energy in the region. Australia faces significant pressure from other countries in the Pacific—under threat from rising sea levels—to reduce its carbon emissions.

Kosovo-Serbia dialogues. Four European countries and the United States are pushing Kosovo and Serbia to resume talks on normalizing their diplomatic ties, which would affect both countries’ E.U. membership chances. The dialogues stopped in November after Kosovo taxed Serbian goods at 100 percent. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008.

The legacies of British colonialism. The two seemingly distinct crises in Hong Kong and Kashmir share the same legacy: that of British imperialism, Amy Hawkins argues in FP. Their colonial histories have paved the way for conflict as their special protections fade away, she writes: “Today, the fallout from Britain’s absent-minded imperial management is making itself clear.”

Measles cases. The World Health Organization said on Tuesday that the number of reported measles cases worldwide has nearly tripled so far this year compared to the first seven months of 2018. There was a 900-percent year-over-year increase in Africa, where Madagascar saw a historic outbreak this year. Only one in 10 measles cases is reported, according to the WHO.

China’s media presence in Africa. While Chinese infrastructure projects in Africa may capture more global attention, China has also expanded its media presence on the continent. It is investing in infrastructure, established media companies, and journalism partnerships. Given China’s history of censorship, the ties are worrying, Aubrey Hruby argues in FP.

How Argentina’s Stock Market Fall Compares

Argentine President Mauricio Macri’s large margin of defeat in the primary elections on Sunday has shocked the country’s economy: The country’s stock market fell by 48 percent in U.S. dollar terms on Monday, and the Argentine peso remained unsteady on Tuesday. Monday’s stock market drop is one of the world’s largest single-day plunges since 1950, C.K. Hickey reports.

Today, the teenage climate activist Greta Thunberg begins her zero-carbon trip to New York for the U.N. Climate Action Summit in September. She is sailing across the Atlantic Ocean in a racing yacht equipped with solar panels and underwater turbines.

The Notre Dame Cathedral site in Paris has been sealed to the public for the next 10 days as authorities begin a massive lead decontamination effort following the disastrous fire in April. Experts say the blaze burned 400 tons of lead.

That’s it for today. 

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