U.S. Democrats Threaten White House Subpoena

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. Democrats place more pressure on White House over impeachment inquiry, protests in Iraq again turn violent, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning for an election.

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As White House officials refuse to hand over documents related to U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempts to push Ukraine to investigate a potential political opponent, those leading the impeachment inquiry have pledged to issue a subpoena by Friday to force the White House to cooperate. The chair of the House Oversight Committee, Elijah Cummings, said that officials had repeatedly refused to share documents with the House.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post reported on Wednesday that Trump had involved Vice President Mike Pence in his efforts to push Ukraine’s president to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden. Those close to Pence say that he was not aware of the July call between Zelensky and Trump, though one of his top advisors was on the call.

Ukraine envoy appears. Today the House Foreign Affairs Committee is expected to question the administration’s special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker, who resigned last week. Volker connected Ukraine’s government with Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani. The appearance comes despite Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement that State Department officials would not testify before the House. Pompeo confirmed Wednesday that he was on the July call.

How will Trump respond? The president’s response to the impeachment inquiry has so far reflected his disregard for the Constitution, Michael Hirsh writes. And if he is impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, that’s not likely to change. “Given American democracy’s long-entrenched traditions, Trump will have a hard time destroying it, but that doesn’t mean he can’t,” Hirsh writes.

Thousands protest across Iraq. Mass demonstrations continue in Iraq, where police and protesters have clashed for two days as thousands take to the streets over corruption and a lack of public services in Baghdad and cities in the country’s south. At least seven people were killed on Wednesday, and counterterrorism troops were deployed to stop protesters from storming Baghdad’s airport. Curfews have been called in Baghdad and three other cities. While Iraq has seen similar protests in recent years, the timing—after the heat of the summer has passed—suggests that they could reflect deeper grievances. 

What is Boris Johnson’s strategy? British Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveiled his new plan for the Irish border after Brexit, though it was quickly criticized by EU leaders. It is expected to rejected by the EU Brexit steering group today. Johnson’s political game isn’t focused on striking a deal with Europe but rather on the snap general election expected after the Oct. 31 deadline, Owen Matthews reports for FP. “There is now more confidence that Johnson can pass blame for an extension onto Brussels and a Remainer-dominated Parliament and win an election,” he writes.

North Korea’s big provocation. North Korea has announced that it launched a new type of missile from a submarine off its coast on Wednesday. The launch came just a day after it announced it would resume talks with the United States, and analysts say it is the most provocative test since they began in 2018. The missile landed in Japanese waters, reflecting the threat posed by North Korea to Japan—which has been sidelined during the nuclear talks.

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Peru’s constitutional crisis. Peru’s biggest political crisis in decades continues. After the president, Martín Vizcarra, dissolved Congress, Congress then suspended the president. Vice President Mercedes Aráoz, who stepped in to succeed him, has already resigned. It’s not clear if Vizcarra’s move is legal—meaning that it’s not clear who is in power, though Vizcarra appears to have the army’s support.

Benjamin Netanyahu’s legal troubles. Israel’s acting prime minister is still struggling to form a coalition while his lawyers try to convince the attorney general not to indict him. Netanyahu met with his former ally turned rival Avigdor Lieberman but made no progress toward forming a coalition or a national unity government. Meanwhile, Haaretz reported that the Knesset’s speaker, Netanyahu’s Likud party colleague Yuli Edelstein, said that Netanyahu has agreed to take a “leave of absence” if he is indicted. The pre-indictment hearing continues today.

Rumblings of a global recession. Most major indicators now point to a global economic slowdown, and the U.S. manufacturing index has hit its lowest level in decades. Experts say that the biggest reason for the slump is U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war, which is creating uncertainty in U.S. and global markets, Keith Johnson reports.

A Ukraine summit? A breakthrough in talks between Russia and Ukraine could pave the way for the first international summit in three years on the conflict in eastern Ukraine. French and German diplomats said they thought that the meeting could be called later this month but noted some obstacles—including whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would show up.

Saudi Arabia’s self-fulfilling prophecy. When the Saudi-led coalition started bombing Yemen, it triggered a self-fulfilling prophecy: Until the conflict began, allegations of Houthi-Iranian cooperation were backed by rumors. Iran then began to see the Houthis as a way to extend their influence in the Arabian Peninsula, Rawan Shaif argues in FP.

Despite protections, hundreds of migrant workers in Qatar are dying of heat stress annually, the Guardian reports. Hundreds of thousands of migrants work in construction in the country, where building is booming ahead of the 2022 World Cup. Researchers say that as temperatures rise around the world, heat stress will increasingly threaten laborers in hot countries.

France will convene a panel of 150 citizens to advise President Emmanuel Macron on cutting carbon emissions—a promise that he made during the gilets jaunes protests last year over a new carbon tax. The panel, selected from across the country, will meet through February.

For the first time, the European Union will impose animal welfare rules on egg imports: Eggs from Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay will be duty-free only if those keeping the hens follow EU standards—a victory for animal rights activists. The requirement could make eggs from EU producers more competitive.

That’s it for today.

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