What Does Hariri’s Resignation Mean for Lebanon?

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Lebanon’s prime minister and cabinet resign amid mass protests, Iraq’s anti-government demonstrations gather steam, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to announce another interest rate cut.

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Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced on Tuesday he would resign along with his cabinet, after facing mass protests against corruption among the ruling elite. Hariri, the son of the former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, began his third term last year in a weakened position. Power had shifted toward the militant Hezbollah party and its allies, it took nine months to form a coalition government, and Hariri struggled to enact economic reforms.

Hariri’s resignation isn’t likely to placate protesters hungry for systemic change, particularly as he is likely to be charged with leading a caretaker government by President Michel Aoun. Forming a new government in Lebanon will take several months—if not longer. Protesters are still demanding the “appointment of a technocratic, clean government” to agree on a new election law and call early elections, Marwan Muasher, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in an email.

Where does Hezbollah stand? Hezbollah supports Aoun and considers the protests an attempt to weaken its standing, Muasher said. The protests have largely been peaceful, but Hariri’s resignation followed an attack on a protest camp in Beirut by allies of Hezbollah and the Amal movement—another party associated with the Shiite community. “That has cost [Hezbollah] a lot in terms of public support, but at this point it seems to care less about this support than on using its muscles to protect a status quo it supports,” he added.

What’s next? Hariri’s resignation could make Lebanon’s economic crisis—which triggered the uprising—even more unpredictable. But the protests continue: “People have lost trust in the whole system and are no longer willing to accept the binary formula presented to them by their governments: either us or chaos,” Muasher said.

Iraq’s protests gather steam. Tens of thousands of Iraqis poured into Baghdad’s Tahrir Square on Tuesday for a fifth day of protest—the largest yet since the anti-government demonstrations resumed last Friday. The unrest followed violence in the Shiite holy city of Karbala, where at least 18 people were killed by security forces on Monday. The protest movement could have implications in Iraq’s parliament: On Tuesday, the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr—who leads the largest bloc of lawmakers—called on his rival to join him in introducing a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi.

U.S. Federal Reserve to announce another rate cut. A two-day meeting of U.S. central bank officials concludes today, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell widely expected to announce another interest rate reduction. What investors will be watching for are clues about what the Fed will do next after three straight rate cuts. Will Powell signal plans to stop guarding growth? Previous statements this year have included the same phrase: that the Fed “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion,” the Associated Press notes. If today’s statement doesn’t, it might be the last rate cut of 2019.

U.S. House unveils impeachment inquiry rules. On Tuesday, U.S. House Democrats presented new rules for publicizing their impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s dealings with Ukraine, including open hearings and a written report. The House will vote on the rules on Thursday. The testimony on Tuesday of Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman—a National Security Council expert on Ukraine—represents a turning point in the inquiry, FP’s Elias Groll and Amy Mackinnon report.

British snap election set for Dec. 12. Britain’s Parliament finally backed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plan to hold an early election on Dec. 12—the latest attempt to break lawmakers’ deadlock over Brexit. The bill won approval by a margin of 438 to 20 in the House of Commons and now goes before the House of Lords. The opposition Labour party said it would back the election after the European Union granted an extension taking an Oct. 31 no-deal Brexit off the table.

Catalonia’s independence movement. Protests against the decision to sentence nine of Catalonia’s leading secessionists to prison continue in Spain, and with an election approaching, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has turned up the heat. His rhetoric and the harsh sentences are only likely to strengthen the secessionist movement, Mark Nayler writes for FP.

A cyber attack in Georgia. Authorities in Georgia are investigating a massive cyber attack that took down government and private websites on Monday, with their homepages displaying an image of former President Mikheil Saakashvili. Georgia has previously accused Russia of hacking websites in the country.

Baghdadi’s legacy. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State, was killed over the weekend. But his legacy will likely live on—perhaps surpassing that of Osama bin Laden. Baghdadi’s decision to declare a caliphate will inspire jihadis for generations to come, Aaron Y. Zelin writes for FP.

Afghanistan’s last Jew. Zabulon Simentov, who lives in Kabul, is believed to be the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, and his life has been full of upheaval. He now faces the prospect of more uncertainty and violence as the Taliban—who once imprisoned him—vie to return to power, Emran Feroz writes for FP.

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On Tuesday, the government of India’s capital, New Delhi, began issuing pink tickets to women granting them free bus travel and deployed bus marshals around the city to encourage female participation in the workforce and promote safety. India’s governing Bharatiya Janata Party has called the move a political ploy by the capital territory’s ruling Aam Aadmi party ahead of state elections early next year.

A climber from Nepal, Nirmal Purja, reached the peak of Shishapangma in Tibet on Tuesday with a Sherpa team, completing his goal to be the fastest to summit the world’s 14 highest mountains—in a little over six months. The previous record, set by a South Korean climber, was seven years, 10 months, and six days.

That’s it for today.

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