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5G Explained
Part One: Technology and Infrastructure
PUBLISHED: JAN. 22, 2020
UPDATED: JULY 20, 2020
The discussion surrounding the ongoing development of the fifth generation of cellular networks, or “5G,” has invoked intense anticipation, deep-seated fear, and general confusion. 5G has the power to be a transformative technology, but it is widely misunderstood. Barclays’ polling found that only 28 percent of businesses know what 5G is and what it could do. This gap creates a competitive advantage for companies that are better able to understand 5G and craft effective 5G strategies. In our 5G series, FP Analytics analyzes three distinct aspects of 5G: Technology and Infrastructure, The Global Competitive Landscape, and National Security, which are essential to fully understanding the evolving industry and the range of commercial and geopolitical implications.
Executive Summary

This report was written by FP Analytics, the independent research division of Foreign Policy; access to the executive summary of 5G Explained is made possible with support from Nokia.
5G technology is set to revolutionize the internet as we know it. It will increase network speeds, enable the Internet of Things (IoT) by bringing billions of more devices online, and advance new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. Despite this transformative impact, the majority of businesses still do not know what 5G is and what it could do.
The “race to 5G” has been widely publicized (and state of development wildly embellished), but the fundamental issues and realities underpinning the transition to 5G technology are still widely misunderstood. Building 5G networks requires extensive global coordination among governments, private companies, and regulatory bodies. It is an ongoing process that will unfold over the next decade at different paces in different countries. As this process occurs, understanding the stages of 5G development in different markets and accurately timing investments will be crucial for businesses. 5G technology will bring broad benefits and widespread risks globally, but there will likely not be one clear-cut winner. Despite this, intense geopolitical competition surrounding 5G is developing, and the results of this competition will have long-lasting and far-reaching effects.
While innovation on 4G networks was largely dominated by the United States and other Western countries, since 2012, China has made a coordinated effort to dominate the build-out of 5G networks and determine operating standards around the world. Chinese omnipresence in 5G infrastructure rollout, embodied in its national telecommunications leader, Huawei, has raised security concerns for Western and other countries and has moved the 5G debate from the technical realm into geopolitics.
China’s push to lead in 5G infrastructure development, combined with long-running U.S. concerns over Huawei’s alleged intellectual property theft, prompted President Donald Trump’s signing an executive order banning Huawei from accessing U.S. supply chains in May 2019. The move sparked a direct confrontation between the U.S. and China over 5G, putting the two countries directly at odds over 5G technology platforms and forcing other countries to take sides. Without a direct competitor to Huawei, the U.S. has moved toward European and South Korean competitors Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung, and it is strongly urging allies to do the same.
However, Huawei’s competitive position cannot easily be diminished. Huawei’s 2019 revenue was four times greater than Nokia’s or Ericsson’s, and it owns more patents on essential telecom technology than any of its competitors. Further, Huawei played an essential role in the development of 4G networks globally and has its equipment and services already deployed in 170 countries. Already, the majority of countries in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America have begun working with Huawei to develop their 5G networks. For the U.S., unseating Huawei will be an uphill, if not insurmountable, battle.
In FP Analytics’ three-part Power Map Series, 5G Explained, we break down the key issues surrounding the development of 5G networks and the confrontation between the U.S. and China over 5G by:
- Identifying the key players in 5G technology and infrastructure development;
- Detailing the global competitive landscape, including issues along supply chains, influence on standards, and forces driving investment decisions in markets around the world;
- Pinpointing key national security concerns, many of which are currently going unaddressed;
- Breaking down the emerging geopolitical competition over 5G; and
- Cataloguing a range of risks and opportunities for businesses.
This FP Analytics Power Map provides the most comprehensive assessment of the issues surrounding 5G to date and provides critical 5G analysis across the technical, economic, geopolitical, and security realms. Beyond the hype and hyperbole, this comprehensive overview provides businesses with an indispensable tool to help better understand the risks and opportunities with 5G.
Subscribe to FP Insider below or contact us at insider@foreignpolicy.com for full access to 5G Explained.
Introduction
Strictly speaking, 5G is a set of technical ground rules that will define the workings of that cellular network, including the radio frequencies used and how various components like computer chips and antennas will handle radio signals and exchange data. However, the full scope of 5G networks will encompass governments, telecom providers, telecom equipment manufactures, and regulatory bodies. Rebuilding cellular networks to the 5G standard will increase speeds and reduce latency, enabling the “Internet of Things,” including Internet-connected household appliances, self-driving cars, smart infrastructure, and other devices that rely on high-speed Internet connectivity to operate and communicate. In short, it will further enable and accelerate the digitalization of economies globally.
While innovations on 4G networks were largely dominated by the U.S. and other Western countries, since 2012, China has made a coordinated effort to lead in building out 5G networks and setting operating standards around the world. Chinese omnipresence in 5G infrastructure rollout, embodied in its national telecom leader, Huawei, has raised security concerns for Western and other countries and has moved the 5G debate from the technical realm into geopolitics.
Despite popular rhetoric, the development of 5G technology is not a race that will have one clear winner. Instead, there will be a wide range of benefits and risks that will be distributed across companies, governments, and individuals. With the increasing digitalization of our economies, societies, and defense systems, the stakes could not be higher. To mitigate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities, stakeholders need to understand the distinct components, the scope of 5G’s global impact, the potential roadblocks that may impede 5G’s development, and when and where it is strategic to engage. The key and nuanced elements of these issues are broken down in our series.
Laying the Groundwork: Foundational Aspects of 5G Technology and Infrastructure Equipment
Building 5G networks requires extensive physical infrastructure, both new and upgraded, that is currently being built, but there are only a small number of companies globally that are able to supply the necessary equipment to build these networks.
Key Takeaways
5G networks will increase data transmission speeds by up to 100x that of 4G networks
Construction of 5G networks will require an estimated investment of over $2.7 trillion globally in 2020 alone
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Need for Speed
5G networks stand to increase data transmission speeds by up to 100x that of 4G, requiring a vastly more extensive physical radio access network (RAN) infrastructure than previous generations used. In order to reliably transmit data over high-frequency radio waves, 5G requires broad-based construction of small cell towers to be placed within 500 feet of each other, requiring capital investment from mobile providers across all network domains, including spectrum, RAN, transmission, and core telecommunications networks.
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Near-Term Investment Requirements Immense
Building this network will require an estimated investment of over $2.7 trillion globally in 2020, which is expected to increase infrastructure capex by 20 to 50 percent per year, with costs varying considerably by market. These costs will be borne by telecom providers and governments seeking to capitalize on the digitalization of global economies it promises to enable.
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What’s at Stake
Seeking a first-mover advantage, telecom providers are scrambling to be the first to lay the foundation for fully operational 5G networks and lock in market share. Global profits from 5G network infrastructure are forecast to be $4.2 billion in 2020 alone, according to Gartner. The potential to capitalize on these profits and influence subsequent operation on the system has led to an intense competition among global telecom equipment providers, the outcome of which will determine which companies and countries capture the greatest benefits and profits from 5G.
Rights to Operate Are Defining the Playing Field—Private vs. State-Owned Telecoms
Depending on the country, telecom companies are either private or state-owned. The varying structure of telecom companies across countries creates distinct challenges for rolling out 5G networks within and across different markets.
Key Takeaways
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Coordination is Key
Operating telecom networks requires close coordination among governments, telecom network operators, telecom equipment providers, and regulatory bodies. These actors must work together, often times across national borders, to build functioning 5G networks. Due to the scope of actors involved and their conflicting interests, 5G has the potential to create wide-ranging tensions. Countries that are better able to coordinate among these stakeholders have a clear advantage.
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Telecoms’ Operating Structures Matter
Vastly different operating structures by country will largely determine the ability of key actors to coordinate. For state-owned telecoms, the directives and incentives are aligned by nature, while privately owned companies need to reconcile conflicting interests as they work toward 5G.
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What’s at Stake
The ability to secure exclusive rights to operate will determine the rate at which development will be achieved—carrying implications for whether, when, and how companies and their competitors can participate in development. In each market, both the scope of infrastructure needed and the pace will vary; for 5G stakeholders, this means navigating uneven landscapes across markets and requires a tailored strategy for engagement.
Where Do We Stand Today?
In May of 2019, the U.S. issued a ban on Huawei equipment being used in domestic 5G markets and urged the rest of the world to follow suit. In May of 2020, on the anniversary of the U.S. banning Huawei equipment’s use in domestic 5G markets, the Trump administration extended the measure by way of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act; the ban is now in effect until May of 2021. The reality is that small carriers in the U.S. already use Huawei equipment, and U.S. companies rely on Huawei for large amounts of revenue. Still, the Trump administration is urging other governments to follow his lead and ban or restrict Huawei in their markets. However, foreign governments’ reaction to the U.S. ban has been mixed—only Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and now the UK have complied, and the U.S. itself has yet to fully enforce it—but Huawei has since come under increasing scrutiny from the EU, Canada, and India. However, shifts in political relationships between China and the EU, Canada, and India over COVID-19, the detention of Canadian nationals, and border disputes along the Himalayas are threatening Huawei’s market dominance.
Key Takeaways
Banning U.S. suppliers from working with Huawei could result in an estimated $11 billion annual loss for these companies
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The U.S. Cannot “Win” on 5G Infrastructure
China’s Huawei is already the global leader in installed 5G infrastructure by a ratio of 2:1 and realistically won’t be removed from the majority of those markets, as installed infrastructure would literally need to be ripped out of the ground. Though the tension and distrust between the U.S. and China has created a global controversy around Huawei, the reality is that the U.S. does not have domestic competitors that provide equipment on par.
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The Game Is Mostly Among Other Players
The 5G infrastructure contest is truly among the national champions of China, Sweden, and Finland, with those of South Korea and Japan emerging as potential players as well. While the U.S. government has led the backlash against Huawei, it is not strongly positioned to enforce this stance globally, and the main commercial beneficiaries from a Huawei ban will be foreign competitors. In addition to those countries’ sovereign decision-making, commercial realities make the dynamic more complex. U.S. suppliers are an integral part of Huawei’s supply chain—banning these suppliers from working with Huawei would mean an estimated $11 billion annual loss for U.S. companies and would risk alienating U.S. allies that are relying on Huawei to build out their 5G networks.
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What’s at Stake
The U.S.’s restrictive actions, including a ban on Huawei equipment and increasingly inflammatory rhetoric against Huawei on global 5G policy, have escalated tensions between the U.S. and China. However, due to the U.S.’s waning global influence and absence of a coherent competitive strategy, Huawei is continuing to drive 5G infrastructure development globally. Even in the face of increased global scrutiny of both China and Huawei—stemming from U.S. and EU security concerns and global tensions related to COVID-19, Huawei continued to be the 5G infrastructure equipment market leader in Q1 2020 by a sizeable margin. (Huawei holds 28 percent of the market, 13 percent more than its closest competitor Nokia.) The U.S.’ (and other countries’) ongoing efforts to restrict Huawei will carry implications for not only primary equipment competitors, but the myriad companies integrated in 5G infrastructure supply chains.
Current Power Positions Among the Key Players
Five main companies are competing to build 5G infrastructure globally: Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung. Huawei has emerged as the market leader in this space, but while it is embroiled in controversy, and with the majority of the world’s 5G infrastructure still needing to be built, the field is incredibly competitive.
Key Takeaways
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Huawei the Clear Market Leader
Ericsson and Nokia have been market leaders in the telecom equipment space for decades, but since 2010, Huawei has rapidly increased its market share and revenue through extensive research and development (R&D) funding, government grants and subsidies, and exclusive access to the massive domestic Chinese telecom market. In 2018, Huawei emerged as the market leader in the telecom equipment space. However, the recent U.S.-led effort against Huawei has opened opportunities for Nokia and Ericsson to regain some market share. Despite Ericsson and Nokia gaining ground on Huawei by way of 5G contracts, the nature of Huawei’s contracts is more impactful in terms of market power. Huawei provides end-to-end 5G solutions and signs many of its contracts with national governments in countries that have state-owned telecoms. Thus, Huawei’s contracts generally cover a larger scope of services and equipment including entire countries. Despite recent tensions, Huawei has steadily maintained its position as the market leader through Q1 2020.
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Huawei’s Position Cannot Easily Be Diminished
Huawei’s 2019 revenue was 4x greater than Nokia or Ericsson, and it owns more patents on essential telecom technology than any of its competitors. Further, Huawei played an essential role in the development of 4G networks globally and has its equipment and services already deployed in 170 countries. While Huawei’s close ties to the Chinese Communist Party have raised concerns over security and competitive practices in the U.S., Huawei’s position is firmly entrenched in the 5G space globally.
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What’s at Stake
Huawei’s rise positions China to capture the majority of the revenue from 5G infrastructure spending globally, expected to rise to $26 billion in 2022. Its 5G infrastructure contracts, many of which are with governments in the developing world, are enabling China to strengthen political and commercial ties in those regions, and its influence over future economic development in those countries.
Huawei's Global Expansion
Huawei is steadily securing its presence in markets around the world.





Note: Restrictions include banning Huawei from core network functions; placing Huawei under government security reviews; placing limits on the amount of Huawei equipment that can be used; limiting contract duration, and general government guidelines that urge telecoms to opt for alternative 5G carriers.
Countries with ongoing disputes surrounding Huawei
(current as of July 2020)
U.S.
The ban on Huawei is still not being fully enforced, and President Trump has lifted the trade ban. In addition, the Department of Commerce is now allowing U.S. companies to work with Huawei on developing 5G standards but has taken further actions to cut off Huawei from the U.S.-based links in the global semiconductor supply chain.
UK
The UK initially put limits on how much Huawei equipment could be used (35 percent) in their 5G networks and restricted the use of Huawei network equipment from being included in its core network. The UK’s position on an outright Huawei ban has continually fluctuated, and after the government renewed deliberations over a ban in early 2020, the UK decided to completely eliminate Huawei from their 5G networks in July 2020. UK telecoms are now restricted from purchasing new Huawei equipment and have until 2027 to remove existing equipment. The ban comes in the face of Huawei’s announcement in June 2020 that it plans to build a $1.2 billion-dollar R&D center in Cambridge.
Canada
Canada’s relationship with Huawei is fraught with ongoing tensions over Canada’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO Meng Wanzhou and the two Canadian nationals China arrested, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, in what Canada claims to be an act of retaliation. Canada refuses to release Meng, and Its two largest wireless companies have now signed contracts with Nokia and Ericsson instead of Huawei, effectively barring Huawei from its 5G network despite the lack of an outright ban.
Germany
Germany is remaining relatively neutral and has refused to single Huawei out. However, after conducting a security review, the German government barred “untrustworthy” sources from developing the country’s 5G network. While some interpreted this to be directed toward Huawei, there is no explicit evidence that this is the case. Despite the ambiguity on the Huawei ban, Germany’s main telecom networks have opted to use Ericsson over Huawei for their core 5G networks and are removing Huawei network equipment from their 5G core networks.
India
After recent border clashes with China, India is now considering excluding Huawei and ZTE from its 5G telecom networks. However, some major Indian telecoms have already begun moving forward with Huawei 5G equipment, meaning that a ban is still not likely. However, after India banned 59 Chinese apps within the country, including Tik Tok, there is now some momentum for a full or partial Huawei ban if the border situation continues to escalate and relations between China and India deteriorate further.
Brazil
Huawei has had a continuous presence in Brazil, and its status for developing 5G networks within the country is still fairly certain. However, the U.S. has been putting continual pressure on Brazil to eliminate Huawei from its 5G networks. U.S. ambassador Todd Chapman has been in talks with Brazil and its local telecommunications companies about funding the acquisition of 5G gear produced by Ericsson and Nokia through the International Development Finance Corporation, a development bank created by U.S. President Donald Trump in late 2018 to counter China’s Development Bank foreign operations.
Belgium
The Belgian government will impose new restrictions on using “high-risk” 5G equipment makers in the country’s core networks and will limit access to RAN networks to 35 percent for those vendors. These measures will substantially limit the use of Chinese suppliers, following the approach the UK had previously taken toward Huawei. While the restrictions are largely interpreted to be aimed at Huawei and ZTE, like in Germany, the Belgian government declined to mention any specific vendor names in their report or ruling.
Denmark
Denmark will exclude 5G technology suppliers from providing critical infrastructure within its borders if they are not from countries considered security allies. Last year, Denmark’s biggest single telecoms operator TDC picked Ericsson over Huawei for its 5G network. TDC stated that it was a commercial decision but that it “was not blind” to widespread concerns about Huawei and information security.
Risks and Opportunities for Insiders and Stakeholders Anticipating 5G
Completing 5G infrastructure and rolling out fully operational 5G telecom networks is a process that will take years to complete. Along the way, there are still significant potential roadblocks and developments that stakeholders in 5G should continue to monitor carefully to understand the implications for their business.
Key Takeaways
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Foundational 5G Infrastructure Will Take Years to Complete
Despite the hype, construction and rollout will happen at considerably different paces across different markets. Initially, 5G speeds will vary greatly, even within countries, depending on the stage of the rollout. The majority of the infrastructure for 5G still needs to be built, with prospective delays based on market structures, regulations, and the ongoing trade and political tensions between China and the U.S. affecting equipment access.
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Timing Investment Is Key
Capitalizing on 5G will require stakeholders to craft coherent and flexible 5G strategies, which takes into account both the upside of investing in 5G technology as well as an accurate timetable for when it will be available to consumers and businesses. 5G strategies should be tailored toward the key markets a business operates in, understanding that each market will present unique opportunities and challenges, and requiring ongoing monitoring of developments in target markets.
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What’s at Stake
5G will be a disruptive, transformative technology, but it will initially be costly, and the benefits for businesses will be uneven and will take time to materialize. There will be opportunities to gain competitive advantage, but the development path is not linear, and keen attention will need to be paid to ongoing developments in companies’ target markets to more fully understand when and where to engage.
Next in Our 5G Power Map Series: The Global Competitive Landscape
Huawei’s presence in 5G infrastructure has become ubiquitous and entrenched. This rise has been facilitated through generous funding from the Chinese government and exclusive access to the domestic Chinese market. In the next installment of FP’s 5G Power Map, we will examine the potential effects of Huawei’s rise on global competitiveness and will dive deeper into the implications of the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. As both the U.S. and China threaten export controls and more tariffs, we will illustrate the potential ramifications along the entire 5G supply chain and what this could mean for the development of 5G networks globally. Crucially, we will examine how the competitive landscape in 5G exemplifies the diverging business models of Western and Chinese companies, and we will lay out what businesses outside of the telecom industry need to know to navigate this evolving environment.
Written by Christian Perez. Edited by Allison Carlson. Copyedited by David Johnstone. Design and development by Andrew Baughman. Art direction by Adam Griffiths. Graphics by Colin Hayes for Foreign Policy. Photos by Getty Images.

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