How Long Until There’s a Coronavirus Vaccine?

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Billions in new funds raise coronavirus vaccine hopes, U.S. citizens detained in Venezuela, and Israel strikes a base in Syria.

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The European Union on Monday helped raise $8 billion dollars for a coronavirus vaccine as over 30 countries contributed to a global fund to address vaccine development. Norway contributed the highest amount: $1 billion, a figure matching the European Commission’s donation. The singer Madonna even contributed $1.1 million.

“I believe 4 May will mark a turning point in our fight against coronavirus because today the world is coming together,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

Where’s America? The United States did not participate in the fundraising drive, but highlighted its own efforts to fund a vaccine, including $2.6 billion through the Department of Health and Human Services’ Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority.

The worry is that the United States will continue to go it alone on vaccine development, potentially delaying access for other countries. A German company in March denied a local news report that the Trump administration was trying to purchase exclusive rights to a potential vaccine on behalf of the United States.

How is vaccine development progressing? A STAT tracker showing the progression of high-profile treatments and vaccinations as they go through testing stages shows 13 vaccines currently in development, with only three so far reaching phase-one human trials. As of April 8, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) reported 115 vaccine candidates in various stages of development. The Trump administration has said it is focusing on 14 vaccine candidates, and has floated the possibility of providing government funds to speed development of the most promising ones.

U.S. President Donald Trump is optimistic, and told Fox News on Sunday that a vaccine could be available by the end of the year. Anthony Fauci, speaking to ABC’s Today Show on April 30, said the prospect of a vaccine being available in January isn’t outside the realm of possibility. “It’s doable,” he said. “If things fall into the right place.”

U.S. citizens arrested in botched Venezuelan incursion. Two U.S. citizens have been detained in Venezuela after the government arrested a further eight men in connection with a failed armed maritime incursion on Sunday. The Americans were initially identified as Luke Denman and Airan Berry; the two U.S. military veterans were named by Jordan Goudreau, a former U.S. special forces medic who admitted to planning the assault. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro brandished the men’s passports on state television before providing an exhibition of equipment taken from the detainees.

Goudreau appeared in a video on Sunday alongside former Venezuelan military officer­ Javier Nieto; he claimed insurgent forces were still active in the country.

In an interview with a news site run by Venezuelan exiles in Miami, posted late Sunday night, Goudreau said he had been strung along by Juan Guaidó and other members of the Venezuelan opposition, never receiving the money he had been promised. Goudreau, the owner and operator of the private security company Silvercorp, denied being a mercenary. “Mercenaries get paid,” he said, “I haven’t been paid a cent for this.”

During the interview, Goudreau produced what he claimed to be a general services agreement between his company, Juan Guaidó, and his associates Juan Jose Rendon and Sergio Vergara—all bearing what appeared to be their respective signatures. Guaidó’s press team has denied any involvement from the would-be Venezuelan leader. 

First coronavirus case in Europe was in December. As the U.S. and China continue to spar over who handled the coronavirus outbreak worse, a new wrinkle in the history of the coronavirus has emerged. A sample taken on December 27 from a pneumonia patient in a French hospital has come back positive for the coronavirus, suggesting the virus was in Europe much earlier than previously thought.

Yves Cohen, the head of emergency medicine at the Avicenne and Jean-Verdier hospitals near Paris, said he had begun testing samples from patients presenting flu-like symptoms in December and January for the coronavirus. Of the 14 he has tested, only one came back positive (and was tested a second time to be sure). The pneumonia patient from whom the sample was taken, who has since recovered, said he had not travelled to any of the infection hotspots. The discovery challenges assumptions about the virus’s early spread, as France’s first three recorded cases in January were all linked back to Wuhan.

Israel strikes in Syria. Israeli missiles struck a military base in Syria, southeast of Aleppo, according to Syrian state media. Radio Free Europe reports that the target was a suspected Iranian position and is the fifth airstrike Israel has conducted in two weeks. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Israeli warplanes also struck Iran-aligned targets near Albu Kamal at the Iraqi border.

Bolsonaro chooses new police chief. Rolando Alexandre de Souza has been named as the head of Brazil’s federal police after Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s first choice was blocked by the Supreme Court. De Souza was most recently secretary of planning and management at the Brazilian intelligence agency, ABIN, and had previously held positions in the federal police force.

Responding to Bolsonaro’s enthusiastic comments at an anti-democracy rally calling for the closure of Brazil’s supreme court and legislature on Sunday, Brazil’s defense ministry issued a rare statement underlining the commitment of the armed forces to democracy and the Brazilian constitution.

Poland races toward postal voting. Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party is hoping to finalize legislation allowing for postal voting in time for the country’s presidential election this Sunday. Opposition parties have threatened to block the new law and postal workers have complained they don’t have sufficient training in how to handle ballots during the coronavirus epidemic. “This unpredictable chaos means people are worried, they are scared and they don’t know what this election will look like,” Dorota Gardias, the head of the Trade Unions’ Forum, told Reuters.

Writing in Foreign Policy, Zselyke Csaky and Sarah Repucci of Freedom House warn of the serious risk that Poland’s election will be “neither free nor fair,” as the rush to enact laws opens the door to ballot tampering. An emergency declaration delaying the election by 90 days would be the safest and fairest approach, they argue.

Move over goats of Llandudno, there’s a new herd in town. Dramatic video footage has emerged of dozens of sheep roaming the streets of Samsun in northern Turkey as they take advantage of the country’s weekend lockdown. The sheep won’t be able to make it a habit, however, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would start easing lockdown measures as soon as May 11.

That’s it for today.

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