Do Poor Countries Face a Greater Risk From Coronavirus?

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: The WHO warns of rising coronavirus cases in low and middle-income countries, Cyclone Amphan hits India and Bangladesh, and Brazil’s culture secretary resigns as the coronavirus pandemic surges.

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On Wednesday, the World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said his organization is “very concerned about rising cases in low- and middle-income countries,” as the WHO reported the highest daily jump in new coronavirus cases globally since the pandemic began.

While rich countries strategize on reopening, it’s the poorer ones that are seeing the number of new cases jump: Of the top ten countries with the highest daily jump in coronavirus cases yesterday, only one high-income country—the United States—made the list. To see why Tedros is worried, look at Brazil. The country now has the third-highest number of coronavirus cases globally and is close to overtaking Russia in second place. Yesterday, Brazil recorded  more than 20,000 new infections.

In rich countries, the poor are dying disproportionately. But it’s not just a disparity between rich nations and poor ones. The poor within rich societies are also dying disproportionately as the pandemic exposes vast inequalities. A report released by the APM Research Lab showed that race is a determining factor in coronavirus deaths in the United States—a country where a typical white family has a net worth ten times higher than a typical black family. The APM study showed that black Americans are dying at more than twice the rate as white Americans.

Do poor countries face a higher risk? Foreign Policy has been tracking the coronavirus across the world since the first outbreak in China began, highlighting how different countries are challenged by the coronavirus.

Some developing countries, such as Vietnam, have weathered the crisis far better than wealthier ones; others, like Liberia, have provided valuable lessons in controlling outbreaks based on their past experiences with diseases such as Ebola. Still, as the number of infections rises, poorer governments will face even more daunting challenges.

For some countries, simply accessing regularly running water is a challenge, especially when regular handwashing has become so important to coronavirus prevention. Last week, Alan Nicol wrote in FP about Ethiopia’s water woes, and what can be done to fix the problem. Poor governance is also causing harm. Reporting for FP from Pakistan, Neha Maqsood writes, a hesitant government has left the poorest citizens relying on charity rather than state assistance.

Does social distancing do more harm than good? Lockdowns hurt economies in poorer countries, too. As Mushfiq Mobarak and Zachary Barnett-Howell argued in FP in April, “imposing strict lockdowns in poor countries—where people depend on daily hands-on labor to feed their families—could lead to as many deaths from deprivation and preventable diseases as from COVID-19.”

Reporting from Afghanistan, Stefanie Glinksi heard from a local man whose meager livelihood salvaging garbage had fallen apart due to his customers staying indoors. “We’re supposed to do the same—to stay home,” the man said. “Of course we’re afraid, of course we’d like to stay home if we had the support to do so, but we would go hungry. We might die before the virus even reaches us. If the situation continues like this for another six months, we will be digging our own graves.”

Cyclone Amphan fallout. After Cyclone Amphan made landfall yesterday, hitting eastern India and Bangladesh, the full extent of destruction is still unknown. An estimated 24 people have been killed and videos from Kolkata showed roofs being swept off buildings. West Bengal’s Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee said it would take “three to four days to assess the damage” and that at least 12 people had died in her state since the cyclone arrived. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department estimated that areas up to 10 miles inland from the coast could be inundated.

Brazil’s culture secretary resigns as outbreak spreads. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro’s culture secretary has left his cabinet, just two months after taking up the post—the latest of many departures from his government, including two health ministers in less than a month and his justice minister, who has accused him of nepotism and corruption.

Regina Duarte, who is a popular actress in Brazil, is leaving to take up a new position as head of the country’s national film archives, bringing her closer to her family in São Paulo. Duarte’s exit is relatively low-key compared to that of her predecessor, Roberto Alvim, who resigned in January after giving a speech paraphrasing Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.

Amid the churn in his cabinet, Bolsonaro’s government is struggling to address a growing coronavirus outbreak. After months of downplaying the pandemic and undermining local officials’ calls for lockdowns, the president is now faced with increasingly grim statistics. Brazil recorded over 1,100 deaths on Tuesday and, on Wednesday, its total coronavirus caseload surpassed Spain’s. With more than 293,000 cases, Brazil now has the third-highest number of recorded infections in the world after the United States and Russia. The true number is likely much higher, given the country’s low rate of testing; Brazil has tested just 3,400 people per million, compared to approximately 65,000 per million in Spain.

China’s “Two Sessions” begin. The 2,000 members of China’s national advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) meets today in the first of China’s “Two Sessions,” the highlight of the Chinese political calendar. The second of the two meetings—the National People’s Congress—begins on Friday. Chinese President Xi Jinping is fresh off a confident appearance at the World Health Assembly earlier in the week and will be eager to project control and calm as China faces a damaged economy and a battered reputation.

Xi will be undisturbed by the World Health Organization’s decision to conduct an investigation into the international response to the pandemic. As James Palmer writes in FP’s China Brief newsletter, China’s influence at the WHO is likely to head off any sharp critiques of the country. “An actual investigation would require a level of access and transparency that is now unthinkable as China’s party-state system reaches new peaks of paranoia.”

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Venezuela to protect Iranian tankers. Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino said his country’s military will escort five Iranian fuel tankers to port in Venezuela once they have entered its exclusive economic zone. The tankers are currently in the Atlantic Ocean and are expected to arrive in Venezuela in late May or early June. Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó  said the delivery should cause “alarm” in Latin America, adding that Venezuela’s need to import fuel shows the how poorly President Nicolás Maduro has managed the oil-rich country. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman has warned of a “firm response” if the United States attempts to interfere with the shipment.

Mass testing in Wuhan. The city of Wuhan has tested 1.3 million residents for the coronavirus in the past two days, according to local health authorities. Wuhan is scrambling to find asymptomatic carriers of the virus to prevent another large outbreak, after a cluster of cases was found earlier in the month. Three million of Wuhan’s residents had already been tested between April 1 and May 13, and state media says authorities plan to test all 11 million residents before the end of the month.

If New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had not already endeared herself enough to the world as a result of her government’s swift and successful policies to halt New Zealand’s coronavirus outbreak, she has now floated a novel solution to balancing a post-coronavirus economy: A four-day workweek. Ardern made the comments on a live video on Facebook, suggesting a shorter week would give residents more time to explore the country—boosting domestic tourism at a time when international travel is limited and borders are closed.

“I hear lots of people suggesting we should have a four-day workweek. Ultimately that really sits between employers and employees. But as I’ve said there’s just so much we’ve learnt about Covid and that flexibility of people working from home, the productivity that can be driven out of that,” she said.

That’s it for today.

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