Is Climate Action About to Take a Back Seat to COVID-19?

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Global climate talks are postponed until late 2021, the White House plans to announce a response to China’s Hong Kong moves, and Yemen’s aid funds are running out.

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The COP26 summit—the most important climate conference since the 2015 meeting that led to the Paris agreement—has been delayed until late 2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic, United Nations officials confirmed on Thursday.

It’s easy to see how climate change policy could be pushed down the priority list during a global recession, as lawmakers reach for short-term solutions. Consumer preferences after the pandemic could also reverse any reductions in emissions from lockdown measures; Wuhan saw car sales jump after reopening as residents opted for a more personal form of transport.

U.K. Business Secretary and COP26 president Alok Sharma said that the delay would not mean a shift in focus. “While we rightly focus on fighting the immediate crisis of the coronavirus, we must not lose sight of the huge challenges of climate change,” he said. “We are working with our international partners on an ambitious roadmap for global climate action between now and November 2021. Everyone will need to raise their ambitions to tackle climate change.”

What is Europe doing? In Europe, at least, the goal of an environmentally sound economic recovery has been moved to the top of spending plans. The European Commission’s economic recovery plan, released earlier this week, includes 150 billion euro ($166 billion) toward greener transport, more energy efficient homes, and cleaner industry. The EU plan also includes a 40 billion euro ($44 billion) “just transition fund” aimed at weaning countries off dirty fuels like coal through a grant program.

Will leaders repeat the mistakes of 2008? Writing in Foreign Policy on May 21, Paul Hockenos looked back at the 2008 financial crisis and the missteps made then. “Though the post-financial-crisis measures lifted many European countries out of recession—and rescued others from insolvency, though burying them in debt—they did very little to accelerate the transition to more sustainable, climate-friendly economies.” He argued that French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel must resist the lobbying from the automobile and airline industries and make sure any prospective bailout comes with clear climate commitments.

U.S. response on Hong Kong expected today. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce U.S. actions in response to China imposing national security laws on Hong Kong. The White House has been quiet on what such moves might entail, but National Economic Council director Larry Kudlow told CNBC yesterday that the “phase one” trade deal with China was still on and “we may be making progress there.” He added that China’s actions on Hong Kong are “a very, very big mistake.”

FP’s Keith Johnson and Robbie Gramer reported on Thursday on the possible measures the White House could adopt, and whether sanctions would end up hurting Hong Kong more than China. “Additional measures could range from revoking Hong Kong’s special trade relationship with the United States, including levying higher tariffs and tougher export controls, to targeting its role as a vital financial window for Beijing. Hong Kong’s future will be largely shaped by the U.S. measures in the coming weeks—and by Beijing’s response,” they write.

North Koreans charged with evading sanctions. The U.S. Justice Department has charged 28 North Koreans and five Chinese citizens along with North Korea’s national bank with evading U.S. sanctions. The United States accuses North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank (FTB) with conspiring with bank workers “to process at least $2.5 billion in illegal payments via over 250 front companies.” Many of the individuals charged are current or former employees of FTB and the suspicious transactions took place in Russia, Libya, China, and Thailand. U.S. officials said that some of the $2.5 billion went toward North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. 

Minneapolis in flames. Police were forced to retreat as the Minneapolis Police Third Precinct building was set alight in the third night of protests following the killing of George Floyd, a 46-year-old black man, by a local police officer. Similar protests have now taken place in Louisville and Denver. President Trump called the demonstrators “thugs” on Twitter and threatened to send in National Guard troops to silence public anger. “When the looting starts, the shooting starts,” Trump wrote.

Britain’s stance on Venezuela. Britain’s recognition of Juan Guaidó as the rightful leader of Venezuela is in jeopardy after an English court said it would have to decide between acknowledging either Venezulean President Nicolás Maduro or Guaidó in a case involving the country’s gold reserves. The Bank of England holds some of Venezuela’s gold as part of a deal with the United Nations Development Programme, and Venezuela’s central bank has requested the release of roughly $1 billion worth of gold to help with its coronavirus response. The court will hear both sides make their case later this summer.

Germany wants sanctions on Russian spy chief. Germany is pushing for the European Union to impose economic sanctions on the head of Russia’s military intelligence agency, Igor Kostyukov, for his role in a 2015 cyberattack on the German parliament. The move would be the first time an EU sanctions mechanism designed to retaliate against cyberattacks would be used since it was adopted last year. All 27 EU member states must agree on the measure for it to proceed.

U.N. warns Yemen fund running out. United Nations relief agencies working on the ground in Yemen are almost broke, according to United Nations humanitarian aid chief Mark Lowcock. Lowcock has launched a campaign to raise $2.4 billion to support the 80 percent of Yemen’s population now reliant on aid. He said the U.N. received $3.2 billion in aid for Yemen last year, but so far in 2020 that figure was only $474 million. “There’s no way to describe this situation other than alarming,” he said. “Is the world ready simply to watch Yemen fall off the cliff?”

If social media companies are feeling pressured by the Trump administration’s latest executive order, Germany has offered a release valve. Bundestag member Thomas Jarzombek made an open plea for Twitter to move their operations to his country on—where else—Twitter. “Here you are free to criticize the government as well as to fight fake news. We have a great startup and tech ecosystem, your company would be a perfect fit and I will open any doors for you!” he wrote.

Ironically, considering President Trump’s threat to make social media companies legally responsible for posts on their sites, Germany already has very strict policies on policing misinformation. Under German law, social media companies can be fined up to $55 million if they fail to remove hateful content from their sites.

That’s it for today.

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