Trump and Biden Prepare for Final Showdown

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden face off in the final presidential debate, Brexit trade talks resume as an EU delegation heads to London, and Spain’s government faces a vote of no-confidence.

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Tonight in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S. voters and the world will have their second and last chance to see U.S. President Donald Trump and his challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden, go head-to-head on the debate stage.

In the three weeks since their last meeting, Trump has been diagnosed with the coronavirus, a debate was cancelled, and Biden’s polling lead has grown in key states. The Real Clear Politics average of polling data from the last ten days puts Biden 4.8 points ahead in Pennsylvania, 4.6 points ahead in Wisconsin, and 2.1 points ahead in Florida. Nationally, Biden averages a 7.6 point lead.

Of course, Trump has been here before: widely deemed to have lost all three debates to Clinton in 2016, he faded in the pre-election polling only to prevail in an electoral college victory.

Mics dropped. Tonight’s showdown will differ slightly from the barely coherent first debate, when Trump attempted constant interruptions. This time around, opposing candidate microphones will be muted during the other candidate’s two-minute question response period—although both microphones will be back on for the longer discussion periods.

Foreign-policy will have its moment, if only tangentially, as “National Security” is one of the six topics under discussion.

FP on 2020. In advance of tonight’s debate, Foreign Policy is featuring an array of analysis and argument addressing this election’s impact on the wider world, including spotlights on the niche foreign-policy issues that could sway certain constituencies in key battleground states—from Palestinian Americans in Michigan to Latinos in Georgia.

Trump’s foreign-policy report card. On Oct. 14, FP’s Robbie Gramer took a look at the Trump administration’s successes on foreign-policy from the Islamic State to taking on China, and considers whether his positive moves have outweighed the negatives.

Europe’s coronavirus rebound. Spain became the first European country to reach 1 million confirmed coronavirus cases on Wednesday with France not far behind as the continent endures a second wave of cases following a summer lull. Today, Ireland begins a six-week long lockdown in order to contain the virus, the first country to reimpose such an order nationwide. Overall, the European Union has outpaced the United States in the number of daily confirmed cases on every day since October 5.

Brexit talks back on. Brexit trade talks are to resume today in London, following a brief period where it appeared the United Kingdom had walked away from negotiations. The talks offer a chance for an agreement just 10 weeks before the end of the post-Brexit transition period. Despite striking a conciliatory tone with the U.K. in order to restart talks, EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier said “the European Union’s attitude in this negotiation has in no way shifted and it will not shift.”

Post-election violence in Guinea. At least 10 people were killed in the Guinean capital of Conakry on Wednesday, as protests flared following opposition candidate Cellou Dalein Diallo’s declaration of victory in last Sunday’s presidential election. Initial tallies show President Alpha Condé in the lead, although the country’s electoral body has yet to make an official proclamation.

Spanish government faces no-confidence vote. The Spanish parliament will vote today on a motion of no confidence in the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez put forward by the far-right Vox party. Vox accuses Spain’s left-wing government of botching the country’s response to the coronavirus pandemic as well as economic mismanagement.

The motion is unlikely to succeed. Vox is far short of the 176 votes needed for it to pass, while a senior leader in another conservative party derided the motion as “a joke.”

Vaccine trial to continue following death of volunteer. Trials of a coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University are to continue after the death of one of the study’s volunteers in Brazil. Reuters speculates that the trial has not been suspended because the volunteer was likely part of the control group. Trials of the vaccine candidate in the United States have been suspended since September, after a British woman developed neurological symptoms.

DNI warns of Iran disinformation campaign. U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe has said threatening emails recently sent to voters in Florida were part of a disinformation and interference campaign by Iran. The emails, targeting Democratic voters, appeared to come from the far-right Proud Boys group, and were designed to “communicate false information to registered voters that they hope will sow confusion chaos and undermine your confidence in American democracy,” Ratcliffe said. Writing in Foreign Policy on October 16, Doowan Lee outlined how the United States can fight back against these kinds of disinformation campaigns.

Dozens of artworks and artifacts across three of Berlin’s history museums have been vandalized. Items ranging from Egyptian sarcophagi, 19^th century paintings, and stone sculptures were targeted, and were found to be marked with an unknown oily substance. One of the museums, the Pergamon, has come under fire from German QAnon conspiracy theorists for its alleged links to Satanism and pedophilia. Carsten Pfohl of the Berlin police said that a conspiracy theorist-linked attack was unlikely since the objects affected were not related to each other. “One does not recognize any propaganda,” Pfohl added.

That’s it for today.

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