No Clear Winner Yet in U.S. Vote as Ethiopia Faces Civil Strife

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the 2020 U.S. presidential election is too close to call, Ethiopia could be on the brink of civil war, and the Ugandan activist Bobi Wine is arrested by police.

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Polling stations have been closed across the United States for hours but the world is no closer to learning who will be sworn in as president of the United States on January 20, 2021.

As things stand, three crucial swing states that determined the outcome of the election in 2016 remain uncalled with hundreds of thousands (and in some cases, millions) of ballots left to count. Pennsylvania and Michigan expect to announce complete results by Friday, according to state election officials. In Wisconsin, where Biden held a slim lead at the time of writing, officials expect a result early this morning. Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina also remain extremely close.

This uncertainty has not stopped U.S. President Donald Trump from suggesting that he has won. Speaking to a crowd of supporters and staff at the White House in the early hours of this morning, Trump claimed he had won in a number of states that have yet to be called, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, citing the large current margins he holds over former Vice President Joe Biden while more than 1 million votes remain to be counted in each state.

Trump also said that he would enlist the help of the Supreme Court in blocking vote counts in states where he is currently leading—while in the same speech criticizing Fox News and other networks for calling Arizona, where he trails, for Biden. Vice President Mike Pence struck a more measured tone, saying that he and Trump were merely “on the path to victory.”

No matter how things go, it’s clear there has been no mass repudiation of Trump or the Republican Party, despite what several polls suggested in advance of the vote. Red states on the whole have stayed red, with Trump holding onto electoral college prizes like Florida and Texas, while Senate seats that Democrats had hoped to flip—such as Lindsey Graham’s in South Carolina—remain in Republican hands.

Follow along with FP. Foreign Policy is continuing its live blog throughout the day and into the night as votes get counted and more states are called. We’ll be providing round-the-clock updates from our correspondents as well as analysis from around the world, and you can find it all here.

A “record” turnout. With around 65 percent of eligible voters casting ballots, Tuesday’s turnout is likely to be the highest in a U.S. election since 1908. FP’s James Palmer and Audrey Wilson explain why that’s not much to shout about, compared with other developed democracies around the world.

On Tuesday, Tigrayan official Wondimu Asamnew told AFP of government troops massing on the border of the region. “I think when it comes to military mobilization, it’s not child’s play. It can trigger all-out war … what they are doing is playing with fire,” Wondimu said. According to the International Crisis Group, the Tigray region “comprises more than half of the armed forces’ total personnel and mechanized divisions.”

Austrian attacker named. Austrian police have arrested at least 14 people in connection with Monday’s terrorist attacks in Vienna, which left four dead and 22 wounded. The arrests came as authorities identified the man they believe to be the sole assailant, Kujtim Fejzulai, a 20-year-old Austrian who had served time in prison for attempts to join the Islamic State in Syria. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack, although it is not yet known to what extent Fejzulai was affiliated with the group.

Piñera loses interior minister. Chilean President Sebastián Piñera has suffered another setback after Interior Minister Victor Perez resigned on Tuesday. Perez had been in the job for less than five months before the opposition in Congress pushed forward a vote on his impeachment over his mishandling of violence in the country’s Araucania region and his poor management of human rights complaints during protests in Santiago. Perez is the third interior minister to leave Piñera’s cabinet this year.

Bobi Wine arrested in Uganda. Ugandan opposition figure Bobi Wine was arrested by local police on Tuesday after he had filed nomination papers for February’s presidential election. Police accuse Wine of planning to hold “illegal processions” after he left the nomination site. It is not the first time Wine has been arrested by Ugandan authorities; his most recent detention before Tuesday came after a political rally in January.

Malawi to open Jerusalem embassy. Malawi is to become the first African nation to establish an embassy to Israel in Jerusalem in what Malawian Foreign Minister Eisenhower Mkaka called a “bold and significant step.” Israel’s foreign minister welcomed the move, saying he is sure that more African countries will follow. The embassy is scheduled to open by the end of 2021.

U.S. withdraws from Paris agreement. Now that a yearlong notice period has elapsed, the United States has formally withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement. Whether the United States plans to rejoin the agreement will depend on the outcome of the presidential election, as Joe Biden has pledged return to it as soon as possible. Under the rules of the agreement, the United States could return with only a month’s notice.

China is wasting no time in promoting its success in fighting the coronavirus, starting with its youth. China’s ministry of education has announced that elementary and middle school students will be taught the “key figures and deeds which emerged during the epidemic prevention and control efforts,” and “will learn to foster public awareness and dedication, to enrich knowledge about the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics.” The national curriculum will be updated in classes ranging from physical education to history and biology.

That’s it for today.

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