U.S. Allies Look to ‘Strategic Autonomy’ Amid Deadlock

Americans may have rendered their final verdict in the 2020 election, but the maddeningly uncertain outcome as votes continue to be counted, combined with President Donald Trump’s premature victory dance, has left much of the world awaiting the results with anticipation bordering on anxiety, wondering whether they will face a future marked by increasing U.S. authoritarianism and isolationism, or a pathway back to restoring one of the world’s most admired democracies.

“Dear American friends … the reputation of democracy is at stake and the world is watching,” the United Kingdom’s former Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt warned on Twitter as the election stalled in a deadlock. “Please proceed carefully.”

As of Wednesday morning, neither candidate had secured the 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory, though Joe Biden’s gains in key battleground states gave his campaign hope of ultimately prevailing. But the final result likely won’t be known until later in the week—and legal challenges from Republicans loom.

The electoral deadlock put many of Western allies on edge, fearful that four more years of Trump’s “America first” foreign policy will further erode critical security alliances and leave them increasingly exposed to threats from rising powers, principally China. But it also offered encouragement to a new generation of nationalist leaders from Brazil to Hungary, who see Trump’s norm-breaking presidency as an affirmation of their own policies. 

In a major breach of protocol, Slovenia’s nationalist Prime Minister Janez Jansa weighed in on behalf of Trump on Twitter, following the president’s claim to have already won the election: “It’s pretty clear that American people have elected⁦ @realDonaldTrump @Mike_Pence for #4moreyears. More delays and facts denying from #MSM, bigger the final triumph for #POTUS. Congratulations ⁦@GOP ⁩for strong results across the #US⁦ @idualliance.”

Still, most world leaders responded cautiously to the early election night results, which may not be fully tabulated for days, mindful that a hasty decision to pick the wrong horse in the race could backfire, undermining their relationship with the next American president. 

Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has cultivated a close personal relationship with Trump, tried to steer clear of the fray, saying, “Of course, we don’t comment as a U.K. government on the democratic processes of our friends and allies.” 

“We need to be patient and wait and see who wins the US election,” Britain’s Foreign Minister Dominic Raab tweeted. “Important the process is given sufficient time to reach a conclusion. We have full confidence in the checks and balances of the US system to produce a result.”

The European Union’s foreign-policy chief, ⁦Josep Borrell, made it clear that the final outcome is not yet known. “The American people have spoken,” he tweeted. “While we wait for the election result, the EU remains ready to continue building a strong transatlantic partnership, based on our shared values and history.”

The unexpectedly strong showing by Trump sent a powerful message to Washington’s European partners that the president’s isolationist tendencies are deeply rooted in the American heartland, forcing them to rethink their own security alliances with the United States at a time when Russia has become increasingly assertive on its European flank. 

“Even if Biden ekes out a win, Trump’s strong showing will convince a lot of foreign observers that they can’t put much faith in the U.S. in the long term,” said Richard Gowan, an expert on multilateralism with the International Crisis Group. “It’s hard to see foreign powers sealing complex bargains with the U.S. if they suspect that another nationalist will win in 2024.”

“The big question is what China will do next,” Gowan added. “If Biden wins, will Beijing rein in its assertive tendencies and realize that it needs to be more careful or cooperative with Washington? Or has Beijing now concluded that the only way to deal with the U.S. is all-out competition, whoever is in office? If Beijing miscalculates, the world gets quite dangerous quite quickly.” 

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