Skip to main content

Mohammed bin Salman Should Be Very Worried About Biden

Saudi Arabia went all-in for Trump—and might be about to reap the consequences.

Vohra-Anchal-foreign-policy-columnist18
Vohra-Anchal-foreign-policy-columnist18
Anchal Vohra
By , a Brussels-based columnist for Foreign Policy who writes about Europe, the Middle East and South Asia.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal  welcomes U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (C) at the Riyadh airbase on October 27, 2011, upon his arrival in the Saudi capital with a U.S. official delegation to offer condolences to the King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz following the death of his brother, Crown Prince Sultan.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal welcomes U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (C) at the Riyadh airbase on October 27, 2011, upon his arrival in the Saudi capital with a U.S. official delegation to offer condolences to the King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz following the death of his brother, Crown Prince Sultan.
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal welcomes U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (C) at the Riyadh airbase on October 27, 2011, upon his arrival in the Saudi capital with a U.S. official delegation to offer condolences to the King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz following the death of his brother, Crown Prince Sultan. AFP via Getty Images

As the U.S. election goes down to the wire, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince must be pacing nervously in his gilded palace.

As the U.S. election goes down to the wire, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince must be pacing nervously in his gilded palace.

Mohammed bin Salman bet big on Donald Trump’s reelection when he gave his tacit approval to the decision by his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, to sign a peace deal with the Arab world’s supposed archenemy Israel. But if Joe Biden wins, the Saudi position, which came at the cost of offending Muslim sentiment globally, makes him look more isolated.

At the start of Trump’s presidency, Mohammed bin Salman wooed Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner, and even referred to him—and by implication the U.S. president—as being “in his pocket.” The two 30-something novices on the world stage played statesmen and forged a close relationship. In strategic terms, that meant close coordination on Iran and the region and U.S. backing for Mohammed bin Salman’s rise to power. The crown prince in particular was emboldened by Trump’s support and took an ever more bullish position on Tehran, which Riyadh sees as the main threat to its unofficial position as leader of the Muslim world since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

In May 2018, Trump walked out of the nuclear deal that lifted sanctions on Iran. That deal, and the money that began to flow into Tehran’s coffers from oil sales, made it possible for the country to double down on its support for militias across the region, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah. So the reimposition of sanctions suited both Israel and the House of Saud.

Biden, however, has promised to reengage with Iran and reinstate the nuclear deal in some form. If that happens, and sanctions are lifted again, Iran would, in the Saudi view, have the funds to expand its arc of influence from Tehran through Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and as far as Yemen.

It is not clear if and how Biden intends to continue containing Iran’s ambitions in the absence of sanctions. That is a major cause for Saudi concern.

But more generally Biden described Saudi Arabia as a pariah and promised to treat it as such. He has also supported the findings of the CIA that the brutal killing of the Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi was indeed ordered by the Saudi crown prince. Whether that makes a difference to policy toward Saudi Arabia in practice is one of the big foreign-policy questions arising from the election.

Twitter: @anchalvohra

More from Foreign Policy

Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.
Newspapers in Tehran feature on their front page news about the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, signed in Beijing the previous day, on March, 11 2023.

Saudi-Iranian Détente Is a Wake-Up Call for America

The peace plan is a big deal—and it’s no accident that China brokered it.

Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.
Austin and Gallant stand at podiums side by side next to each others' national flags.

The U.S.-Israel Relationship No Longer Makes Sense

If Israel and its supporters want the country to continue receiving U.S. largesse, they will need to come up with a new narrative.

Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.
Russian President Vladimir Putin lays flowers at the Moscow Kremlin Wall in the Alexander Garden during an event marking Defender of the Fatherland Day in Moscow.

Putin Is Trapped in the Sunk-Cost Fallacy of War

Moscow is grasping for meaning in a meaningless invasion.

An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.
An Iranian man holds a newspaper reporting the China-brokered deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties, in Tehran on March 11.

How China’s Saudi-Iran Deal Can Serve U.S. Interests

And why there’s less to Beijing’s diplomatic breakthrough than meets the eye.

Loading graphics

Welcome to a world of insight.

Make the most of FP.

Explore the benefits of your FP subscription. Explore the benefits included in your subscription.

Stay updated on the topics you care about with email alerts. Sign up below. Stay updated on the topics you care about with email alerts. Sign up below.

Choose a few newsletters that interest you. Get more insight in your inbox.

Here are some we think you might like. Update your newsletter preferences.

  • Morning Brief thumbnail
  • Africa Brief thumbnail
  • Latin America Brief thumbnail
  • China Brief thumbnail
  • South Asia Brief thumbnail
  • Situation Report thumbnail

Keep up with the world without stopping yours. Keep up with the world without stopping yours.

Download the FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere. Download the new FP mobile app to read anytime, anywhere.

Download on the App Store
  • Read the magazine
  • Save articles (and read offline)
  • Customize your feed
  • Listen to FP podcasts
Download on the Apple App Store
Download on the Google Play Store

Analyze the world’s biggest events. Analyze the world’s biggest events.

Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with Join in-depth conversations and interact with foreign-policy experts with

BEIJING, CHINA - MARCH 05: A general view of the Great Hall of the People during the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers a speech in the opening of the first session of the 14th National People's Congress at The Great Hall of People on March 5, 2023 in Beijing, China.China's annual political gathering known as the Two Sessions will convene leaders and lawmakers to set the government's agenda for domestic economic and social development for the year. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)
BEIJING, CHINA - MARCH 05: A general view of the Great Hall of the People during the Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers a speech in the opening of the first session of the 14th National People's Congress at The Great Hall of People on March 5, 2023 in Beijing, China.China's annual political gathering known as the Two Sessions will convene leaders and lawmakers to set the government's agenda for domestic economic and social development for the year. (Photo by Lintao Zhang/Getty Images)

Inside China’s ‘Two Sessions’

✓  

Registered

  |   Ask a Question Ask a Question   |   Add to Calendar
  1. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews.

    ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER?

  2. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews.

    ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER?

Every year, the top Chinese legislative and advisory bodies meet for two weeks to rubber-stamp decisions already made by the Chinese Communist Party. It’s called the “two sessions,” an...Show more

made-in-america-protectionism-adam-posen-doug-chayka-illustration-fp-live-lead
made-in-america-protectionism-adam-posen-doug-chayka-illustration-fp-live-lead

Economist Adam Posen Explains Why He Thinks U.S. Industrial Policy Will Backfire

✓  

Registered

  |   Ask a Question Ask a Question   |   Add to Calendar
  1. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews.

    ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER?

  2. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews.

    ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER?

Over the last few years, Washington has prioritized relocating manufacturing production back to the United States. Critics abroad argue that America’s new industrial policy is protectionis...Show more

A tank fires at Russian positions near Kreminna in the Lugansk region of Ukraine on Jan. 12. ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images
A tank fires at Russian positions near Kreminna in the Lugansk region of Ukraine on Jan. 12. ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty Images

Ukraine’s Battlefield Dynamics

✓  

Registered

  |   Ask a Question Ask a Question   |   Add to Calendar
  1. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews.

    ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER?

  2. Only FP subscribers can submit questions for FP Live interviews.

    ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER?

Russia has gone from one mobilization to the next, burning through equipment and ammunition faster than it can replace it—even resorting to the recruitment of prisoners to fight its drawn-...Show more