Will Trump Accept Defeat?

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: the 2020 U.S. presidential election edges toward a Biden victory, Ethiopian military leaders declare war in the country’s north, and the Pentagon denies reports that U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper is leaving.

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Seeming to acknowledge this likelihood in a White House press briefing Thursday, Trump appeared downbeat. Instead of his usual off-the-cuff bravado, Trump read methodically from notes, running through a list of alleged inaccuracies and problems in various states; several news networks interrupted his speech to point out false and unsubstantiated statements. Trying to thread the needle between states where he wants vote counting to continue and states where he demands a halt, Trump misleadingly said,“If you count the legal votes, I easily win.”

Court moot. So far the president’s legal arguments have mostly fallen flat with judges in Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. In the early hours of this morning, Trump tweeted an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene. On Thursday FP’s Amy Mackinnon spoke with legal experts who say that Trump’s legal challenges are merely “tinkering on the edges.”

What if it’s Biden?  A new president would mean a new U.S. foreign policy, but how much will Joe Biden change about the U.S. approach to the world? Writing in September, James Traub looked at how Joe Biden sees the world, and the kind of moves he is expected to make, should he take office next January. Traub finds Biden “far more hopeful about the United States than he is about the remote places in which its power is often exercised.”

Follow along with FP. No matter which way today goes, FP will continue to bring you live analysis and argument from around the world. Follow along with our live blog here. FP is will be hosting a conference call at 11 a.m. ET today to discuss the implications of the U.S. election. Register here.

Ethiopia at war. Ethiopia’s Deputy Army Chief Birhanu Jula has said the country has “entered into a war it didn’t anticipate” in the country’s northern Tigray region as fighting enters its third day. Tigray’s president, Debretsion Gebremichael, speaking at a Thursday press conference, has also described the conflict as “clearly a war, an invasion … This is a war we’re conducting to preserve our existence,” he added.

Internet and phone lines have been cut in Tigray, making it difficult to estimate a death toll in the conflict so far. Speaking to AFP, an African Union official said the organization was engaged in “shuttle diplomacy” in order to find a solution to the crisis.

Thaci to The Hague. Kosovo President Hashim Thaci has resigned in order to face war crimes and crimes against humanity charges at a special court in The Hague. The crimes alleged by prosecutors include the kidnapping, torture, and murder of civilians during Thaci’s leadership of the Kosovo Liberation Army guerilla group during the Kosovo conflict in the late 1990s. Thaci has denied any wrongdoing.

Esper out? U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper could soon be leaving his post according to recent news reports. On Thursday, NBC broke the news that Esper had prepared a resignation letter and CNN reported that Esper may be fired even if Trump ultimately loses to Biden. Esper is reported to be working with members of Congress to draft legislation to rename military bases currently named for Confederate generals—an issue that has angered Trump in the past. Chief Pentagon spokesperson Jonathan Hoffman tweeted Thursday that “Secretary of Defense Esper has no plans to resign, nor has he been asked to submit a letter of resignation.”

Macron wants tighter borders. Emmanuel Macron has seized on recent terror attacks in Nice and Vienna to call for a “deep overhaul” of the European Schengen free travel zone, saying it is too vulnerable to illegal immigration. Speaking at the France-Spain border on Thursday, Macron floated the idea of a continental border control agency, as well as increased information sharing between nations on individuals crossing borders. Macron said he would present his proposals at the next EU summit, scheduled for December.

America’s foes rejoice. Countries under U.S. sanctions are indulging in a round of schadenfreude over the U.S. election. Speaking in Venezuela on Thursday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the United States and its allies “can’t control what’s happening in the world. They’ve lost control.” In recent days, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has remarked sarcastically on the “surprising electoral process” of the United States, trumpeting that in recent local elections in Venezuela, all votes had been tallied by 11 p.m. on election day.

Hanegbi warns of Israel-Iran conflict. Israeli Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi has warned of war between Israel and Iran should Joe Biden win the U.S. presidency. Speaking to Israeli television, Hanegbi—a member of the right-wing Likud party—criticized Biden’s stated goal of returning the United States to the Iran nuclear deal. “If Biden stays with that policy, there will, in the end, be a violent confrontation between Israel and Iran,” Hanegbi said.

FP Conference Call—Join editor in chief Jonathan Tepperman and guests Timothy Naftali, CNN presidential historian, and Rana Foroohar, global business columnist at the Financial Times, today, Friday, at 11 a.m. EST for a wide-ranging discussion on the domestic policy and economic implications of the U.S. presidential election. Register here.

That’s it for today.

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