Will the CDU’s Reign End With Merkel?

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union performs poorly in regional elections, Myanmar sees its bloodiest day since the Feb. 1 coup, and what to watch in the world this week.

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Germany’s ruling party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), received record-low vote shares in regional elections on Sunday, spelling trouble for Angela Merkel’s party as she prepares to leave office in September.

The CDU came up short in state elections in two former strongholds: Rhineland-Palatinate and Baden-Württemberg, placing second behind the Social Democrats and Green Party, respectively, in initial results.

The results add to the party’s woes. Two CDU party members and one from its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), resigned last week over allegations that they profited from deals on face mask procurement. Public frustration is also rising over a slow vaccine rollout. Just 7.4 percent of German residents have received their first shot so far, putting it about even with the European Union average but far behind the United Kingdom, which has given a first jab to 36.2 percent of its population.

Paul Ziemiak, the CDU’s secretary-general, admitted it was “not a good election evening for the CDU” but otherwise played down the loss. “In a crisis, we saw that the voters trusted the governing leaders,” he said.

Fractured politics. Even if things look bleak for the CDU, there is still time to turn things around between now and September. A Kantar poll taken at the beginning of March shows the CDU/CSU with 31 percent support, its lowest level since March 2020. However, such is the fractured state of German politics, that would still make the party bloc the largest in Germany. The closest challenger is currently the Green Party with 19 percent support.

Traffic jams. The split in voter attitudes has fueled speculation of a so-called traffic light coalition between the Greens, the Social Democrats (red) and the free market-oriented Free Democratic Party (yellow). The three parties together represent 43 percent of voter preferences, according to the March poll, although that does not necessarily translate directly to Bundestag seats under Germany’s electoral system.

Laschet in trouble. The slump in fortunes certainly puts pressure on newly elected CDU party chairperson Armin Laschet; voters have yet to warm to him as a potential Merkel successor. A poll taken in January—before the mask scandal and Sunday’s poor election showing—found voters preferred Bavarian Premier and CSU Chair Markus Söder as their future chancellor by a wide margin.

On Tuesday , March 16, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks at the 65th session of the U.N. Commission on the Status of Women.

On Wednesday, March 17, former French President Nicolas Sarkozy goes on trial over allegations of fraudulently exceeding campaign spending limits. He was already convicted on a corruption charge earlier this month and given a three-year sentence.

The European Commission is set to present proposals for a digital certificate, called a “digital green pass,” providing COVID-19 vaccination status and recent testing data for EU residents planning to travel within the bloc.

The Netherlands holds parliamentary elections following the Dutch government’s resignation in the wake of a scandal in which thousands of families were wrongly accused of committing child welfare benefit fraud.

On Thursday, Mar 18, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan host talks in Alaska with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Yang Jiechi, director of China’s Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs.

On Sunday, March 21, the Republic of Congo holds a presidential election. Incumbent Denis Sassou Nguesso is seeking a fourth term in office.

Myanmar brutality worsens. At least 138 people have now died in Myanmar’s anti-coup protests as authorities continue to shoot demonstrators, killing nearly 50 on Sunday alone. The township of Hlaingthaya near Yangon bore the brunt of attacks as security forces killed 34 protesters, according to local media.

Hlaingthaya and a neighboring township have been placed under martial law after several Chinese-owned factories were torched. Several Chinese staff were injured in the arson attacks, Beijing’s local embassy said, as it urged Myanmar’s military to put a halt to the violence.

Blinken’s big week. The Biden administration’s diplomatic efforts intensify this week with the first foreign travel for U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Both travel to Tokyo today to hold talks with their Japanese counterparts. Later, the two travel to Seoul for meetings with Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong and Minister of Defense Suh Wook. Blinken caps his week by holding his first in-person meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Alaska on Thursday. 

AstraZeneca fears. Several countries have temporarily stopped using the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University over fears of adverse side effects. Ireland and the Netherlands became the latest countries to suspend vaccinations after reports emerged in Norway of patients developing blood clots after they received the shot.

The AstraZeneca vaccine has been given to 17 million patients in the European Union and United Kingdom, and the company said its safety review found no evidence of an increased risk of clotting. The European Medicines Agency and the World Health Organization have both played down any link between the vaccine and coagulation disorders.

Añez charged in Bolivia. Former Bolivian Interim President Jeanine Añez was accused of sedition, terrorism, and conspiracy in court on Sunday in her first appearance following her arrest in a police raid on Saturday. A public prosecutor alleges Añez took part in a coup to oust former President Evo Morales in late 2019. Her former ministers of energy and justice, Rodrigo Guzman and Alvaro Coimbra, were also charged.

Even as Añez claimed political persecution, the U.S. State Department issued just a mild response to the arrests. Julie Chung, the U.S. State Department’s acting assistant secretary in its Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, urged Bolivia “to uphold all civil rights and due process guarantees of the American Convention on Human Rights and the principles of the Inter-American Democratic Charter.”

The global arms trade. The global arms market was flat during the period 2016-2020, marking an end to over a decade of growth, according to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Although the United States, France, and Germany increased their arms sales during the review period, Russian and Chinese sales decreased. Asia and Oceania imported the most arms in 2016-2020, accounting for 42 percent of the total. India, Australia, China, South Korea, and Pakistan were the top regional importers.

Spain will soon begin a nationwide trial of a four-day workweek after the Spanish government accepted a proposal by the left-wing Más País party to explore the concept. Although the program’s details have yet to be finalized, Más País proposes creating a cost-covering fund to encourage businesses to opt-in to the trial with minimal risk. “Spain will be the first country to undertake a trial of this magnitude,” said Héctor Tejero of Más País. “A pilot project like this hasn’t been undertaken anywhere in the world.”

Despite the country’s siesta stereotype, Spain’s workweek is slightly longer than the EU average, clocking in at 36.4 hours per week in 2019. Those wishing to put their feet up early should look to Northern Europe, where Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands report the shortest workweeks in the EU.

That’s it for today.

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