Will Bibi Listen to Biden?
Hamas officials say a cease-fire is imminent while Netanyahu pushes on with his aerial campaign.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. President Joe Biden calls for “significant de-escalation” of Israel’s Gaza campaign, the Arctic Council meets in Reykjavik, and Colombia’s protests enter fourth week.
Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. President Joe Biden calls for “significant de-escalation” of Israel’s Gaza campaign, the Arctic Council meets in Reykjavik, and Colombia’s protests enter fourth week.
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Biden Calls for ‘Significant De-Escalation’
Today will test whether Israel follows through on U.S. President Joe Biden’s request for “significant de-escalation” of its bombing campaign in Gaza, after Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday—the fourth call between the two leaders over the past week.
Netanyahu kept up his hawkish tone following the call, thanking Biden for his support while vowing to return “calm and security” to Israel’s citizens.
Despite the apparent disconnect, Hamas officials have indicated a cease-fire is likely by the end of the week. A Hamas official, speaking to CNN, said an end to hostilities could be “imminent, possibly within 24 hours” while senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk told Lebanese television that a cease-fire was likely in the next day or two.
Hamas broadens demands. In public statements, one of the main sticking points surrounds a demand from Hamas that goes beyond Gaza. Hamas political official Saleh al-Arouri told Arab media outlets the group is demanding resolutions on issues that sparked the latest round of fighting: the pending eviction of Palestinians in East Jerusalem and Israeli police actions around Jerusalem’s al-Aqsa mosque. Those demands, which go hand in hand with a Hamas strategy to cast itself as the defender of all Palestinians, are coupled with others specific to Gaza: lifting the blockade and allowing more open border crossings.
European officials will not be watching cease-fire talks from afar. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas arrives in the region today along with his counterparts from Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Their travel follows a visit by Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias on Tuesday.
Democratic pushback. In a largely symbolic move that serves as a sign of Washington’s shifting approach to Israel, a group of progressive lawmakers introduced a resolution to halt the potential sale of $735 million worth of precision guided bombs to Israel. “At a time when so many, including President Biden, support a cease-fire, we should not be sending ‘direct attack’ weaponry to Prime Minister Netanyahu to prolong this violence,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a cosponsor of the measure, in a statement.
Party lines. U.S. thinking on Israel falls largely on party lines, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll. Asked how important it should be for the United States to protect Israel, only 22 percent of Democrats said it was “very important” while 61 percent of Republicans gave the same answer; 61 percent of Republicans also say their sympathies lie with Israel in the conflict while Democrats are more likely to say their sympathies are about equal between Israel and the Palestinians.
What We’re Following Today
The Arctic Council begins. The Arctic Council meets today in Reykjavik as the eight Arctic nations of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the United States convene alongside delegates from Indigenous groups to discuss areas of coordination in the Arctic. The Russian and U.S. representatives at the meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, met in person for the first time on Wednesday. The two spoke for longer than expected—almost two hours—covering myriad issues, including humanitarian access in Syria; the detention of U.S. citizens Paul Whelan and Trevor Reed; and cooperation on Afghanistan, Iran, and North Korea policy, according to a State Department readout.
Colombia’s protests. Colombia’s national strike committee comprising unions, students, and other civil society groups will meet with Colombian government representatives today as nationwide protests enter their fourth week. The protests, as Genevieve Glatsky reported in Foreign Policy, have led to deadly reactions from Colombia’s riot police, leading to calls for the United States to cut off security assistance to the country.
India’s record toll. India recorded the highest one-day death toll of any country over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic on Wednesday, as officials reported 4,529 new deaths. Despite the record, there is reason to believe cases may be on the decline: 267,334 new cases were reported on Wednesday, down from recent highs of more than 400,000 new cases per day, while the proportion of positive tests has dropped to 13.1 percent from 19.45 percent the week before. However, the numbers may be misleading as a new surge in rural areas could be significantly undercounted.
China moves on cryptocurrencies. The price of Bitcoin plunged 30 percent before recovering on Wednesday after the Chinese financial regulator banned banks and other payment firms from offering services related to cryptocurrencies. In explaining the move, the regulator blamed the asset’s volatile pricing, adding it was “seriously infringing on the safety of people’s property and disrupting the normal economic and financial order,” the Chinese regulator said. The move comes as Beijing moves forward with its plan for its own digital currency.
Keep an Eye On
Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions. Russia has offered to mediate in a simmering dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, after Armenia accused Azerbaijan of sending troops across the border last week. Talks between Armenian and Azerbaijani defense officials are ongoing, but Armenia has reserved the right to take action if the issue is not resolved soon. “In the absence of a peaceful settlement within a reasonable timeframe—in the event that Azerbaijan’s military does not return to its original positions without any preconditions—the Armenian armed forces have the right to resolve the issue by other means, including by force,” the Armenian defense ministry said.
Iran deal talks. Negotiators from both the European Union and Russia expressed optimism regarding indirect talks taking place in Vienna between Iran and the United States on a U.S. return regarding the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and the lifting of sanctions. Russian negotiator Mikhail Ulyanov tweeted “participants at their meeting today noted that ‘good’ or ‘significant’ progress was made and that an agreement is ‘within reach,’” while EU negotiator Enrique Mora told reporters an agreement is “shaping up.” Pressure for a breakthrough is growing as a monitoring agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency expires on May 21 and Iran’s presidential elections take place on June 18.
Europe’s counteroffer. The European Commission has devised a proposal to boost COVID-19 vaccine access while avoiding an intellectual property waiver. The plan would involve reducing export restrictions, securing pledges from vaccine producers to increase supply to poorer countries at a low cost, and grant compulsory licenses to manufacturers without the permission of the patent holder. The commission is set to introduce the proposal to the World Trade Organization in June.
Odds and Ends
Authorities in Australia have embarked on a quest to solve a decades-old mystery. The case involved a corpse found on an Australian beach in a suit and tie along with cryptic items: notes believed to be written in code, a suitcase full of clothes with labels removed, and a note in his hand bearing the Farsi words Tamam Shud or “it’s finished.”
The unknown body, known as Somerton man, was exhumed on Wednesday as researchers try to garner DNA that will be compared with that of a potential granddaughter. Anne Coxon of Forensic Science South Australia said she hopes new technology unavailable to investigators in the 1940s would be employed as her team tries to “bring closure to this enduring mystery.”
Colm Quinn was a staff writer at Foreign Policy between 2020 and 2022. Twitter: @colmfquinn
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