World Powers Discuss Libya’s Future

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: World powers gather in Berlin to discuss Libya’s future, the COVID-19 Delta variant spurs caution in Israel, and China-Canada relations deteriorate at the U.N. Human Rights Council.

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World powers gather today in Berlin to discuss a path forward for Libya, 10 years after a NATO-led coalition helped oust former Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi and eight months since warring factions agreed to a cease-fire in the country’s six-year civil war.

The group of countries—which includes the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council as well as Germany, Italy, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates—last met in January 2020. Since then, the October 2020 cease-fire has been followed by the selection of a transitional government in February accepted by all sides in the conflict. In a sign of progress, members of that government, including Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, will attend today’s conference for the first time.

Today’s discussion will focus on the next steps in Libya’s transition, including preparations for elections in December and the removal of foreign fighters still active in the country. According to United Nations estimates, more than 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries from Syria, Russia, Sudan, and Chad remain in Libya; their presence violates the terms of October 2020’s cease-fire agreement, which called for their departure within 90 days.

Election concerns. Libya’s political leaders still disagree on the elections’s composition. Some have called for a referendum on a draft constitution before the parliamentary vote while other concerns surround whether to elect a president directly or have lawmakers select one.

Humanitarian needs. Although today’s meeting is a time to improve on positive developments, Libya is still far from a functioning state. Nearly 20 percent of the population is in need of humanitarian assistance, and the country remains a magnet for human traffickers as they move desperate migrants across the Mediterranean Sea and into Europe.

A migrant magnet. The Libyan Coast Guard, which operates with EU financial support, has intercepted more than 14,000 people attempting to cross the sea this year, a higher number than in the entirety of 2020. What awaits the migrants returned to Libya is more misery. Medical charity Doctors Without Borders suspended its operations at two migrant detention centers in Tripoli on Tuesday over what it described as “repeated incidents of violence towards refugees and migrants.” 

Dax Roque, the Norwegian Refugee Council’s country director in Libya, warned against leaving Libya’s development beholden to the items on today’s agenda. “The stability of Libya will not come about by just holding elections or withdrawing foreign fighters,” Roque said. “True stability can only be achieved if the lives of ordinary Libyans and the country’s many migrants and refugees are rebuilt.”

The Delta variant. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has urged citizens to avoid international travel and resume indoor mask-wearing amid an increase in COVID-19 infections and fears over the highly transmissible Delta variant of the virus. “It’s not currently an order; it’s a request,” Bennett said on Tuesday, referring to his comments about travel. Israel aligns with another highly vaccinated country, the United Kingdom, in its cautious approach in the wake of the new variant, first discovered in India. Earlier this month, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson delayed plans to ease restrictions to July 19, citing the rise of the Delta variant.

The Cuba embargo. The U.N. General Assembly is expected to vote to condemn the U.S. economic embargo on Cuba in a resumption of what has become an annual tradition at the body following a pandemic-related pause in 2020. Up until last year, the assembly had overwhelmingly voted to admonish the United States over the embargo each year since 1992. The United States and Israel tend to be the only two nations to reject the resolution, although Brazil joined them in 2019.

Although the resolution is nonbinding, the vote coincides with increased U.S. support for a temporary suspension of the embargo during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a recent poll showing 66 percent of Americans surveyed supporting a suspension so Cuba could export its home-grown vaccines. On Monday, Cuba announced its Abdala vaccine—one of several vaccine candidates—was roughly 92 percent effective at preventing COVID-19 infection.

China-Canada tensions. Relations between Canada and China deteriorated further on Tuesday as Canada led a group of 40 countries at the U.N. Human Rights Council on Monday to call for U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet’s “immediate, meaningful, and unfettered access” to Xinjiang and to end the “arbitrary detention” of Uyghurs. Bachelet said on Monday she hoped to visit Xinjiang this year, even though her trip has been stuck in negotiations with the Chinese government since 2018.

China immediately pointed the finger back at Canada in a statement saying it was “deeply concerned about serious human rights violations against the Indigenous people in Canada,” referencing the recent discovery of 215 unmarked graves at a boarding school that operated between 1890 and 1977 to forcibly assimilate Indigenous people.

Saudi-Iran relations. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said his country would judge Iranian President-elect Ebrahim Raisi’s government “on the reality on the ground” on Tuesday, following a Monday press conference where Raisi pledged improved relations with its Gulf Arab neighbors as a top priority. Although the minister did not elaborate on what exactly needed to change, opposing stances in the war in Yemen and Saudi opposition to the 2015 nuclear deal threaten any warming of relations, despite the opening of direct talks in April. 

Australia vs. UNESCO. Australia is at odds with UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee over a proposal to change the Great Barrier Reef’s status to a world heritage site “in danger.” The world’s largest coral reef system has, in recent years, experienced mass coral bleaching and high water temperatures, according to the committee’s draft report, which stated Australia should “urgently” respond to climate change threats.

The Australian government—which has dragged its feet on emissions targets, becoming a global outlier—expressed “bewilderment” and “strong disappointment” at the move. Australian officials are worried about what it would mean for tourism revenue and has pledged to contest the recommendation, which will be voted on next month.

Many environmentalists, however, are in support of the move. “It would be a very significant step … and one that we really hope that it does make because it will open up a lot of potential change,” said Imogen Zethoven, an Australian Marine Conservation Society environmental consultant.

The U.K. government has been mocked for supporting plans to have schoolchildren across the country sing a song celebrating “strong Britain, great nation,” with some social media users suggesting it would be more welcome in North Korea.

The song is to be sung as part of “One Britain One Nation” day, taking place this Friday, which began as a grassroots campaign to encourage responsible citizenship and champion diversity, according to its website. Although the campaign’s aims are commendable, the timing is not ideal for promoting a United Kingdom: Many Scottish schoolchildren will already be on their summer holidays when the time to sing comes.