Merkel’s Washington Visit Hints at Challenges Ahead

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits the White House, the Taliban seize a key border crossing, and the European Union announces a sweeping climate plan.

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U.S. President Joe Biden hosts German Chancellor Angela Merkel in what is likely her last visit to Washington before she leaves office after elections in September. The two like minds will discuss the coronavirus pandemic, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and China’s rise.

It is the second time in little over a month that the leaders are seeing each other in person, coming on the heels of the G-7 and NATO summits in June.

Although Biden and Merkel share a broad worldview when it comes to the role of multilateralism, democracy, and human rights, Merkel diverges from Biden on her view of China. Merkel is not ready to see China as an adversary. This approach is typified by her steering an EU-China investment agreement—written in part to benefit German industry—signed just before Biden took office.

As Thorsten Benner wrote in Foreign Policy, Merkel’s “accommodationist” approach to Beijing stems from “a deep-seated pessimism about Germany’s and Europe’s trajectory of power” and a realization that the election of former U.S. President Donald Trump may not have been an aberration. “In a world where the United States is no longer a reliable ally,” Benner wrote, “she thinks a fragile Europe simply doesn’t have what it takes to stand up to Beijing.”

Quad pro quo. Merkel’s reluctance to go all in on U.S. geopolitical priorities also reflects the changing relationship between the United States and Europe. As Foreign Policy’s Michael Hirsh wrote, it’s not just Trump that spooked Merkel: The Biden administration’s stated focus on Asia—and its reliance on Quadrilateral Security Dialogue partners Japan, India, and Australia—means Germany and the European Union must prepare to chart a foreign policy with less dependence on U.S. backing.

Merkel’s successor. Recent polls show U.S.-German relations are likely to pick up where Merkel left off once a new German chancellor takes office following September’s Bundestag elections. After a shaky start to the year, Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union coalition now holds a healthy lead in opinion polls, with a recent survey showing Merkel’s party with a double-digit lead over the Greens and the Social Democrats, Merkel’s current coalition partner.

The poll bump is good news for Germany’s likely new leader, Armin Laschet, who, although a close ally of Merkel, had to navigate a bruising leadership challenge from Markus Söder, the popular Bavarian premier.

The EU climate plan. The European Commission on Wednesday announced ambitious plans to cut carbon emissions by 55 percent by 2030, a slightly more ambitious target than a U.S. plan to cut emissions by 50 percent within the same timeframe. The EU plan includes a ban on new combustion engine cars by 2035 and aims to boost renewable energy production to 40 percent of Europe’s energy mix, up from its current level of 20 percent. In a move likely to prompt retaliation from its trading partners, the EU plan also includes a proposal to place tariffs on imports from countries with weaker climate change regulations.

The Taliban’s advance. The Taliban seized the second busiest entry point into Afghanistan on Wednesday as the group continues its advance following the withdrawal of U.S. and international forces. The capture of the Wesh-Chaman crossing on the Pakistani border comes after similar border crossing seizures in Herat, Farah, and Kunduz, Afghanistan, in recent days. As Peer Schouten observed in a Foreign Policy feature in June, the revenue potential of checkpoints and roadblocks make them “the business model of choice” for insurgent groups the world over.

Bolsonaro’s health. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was admitted to a hospital on Wednesday after suffering persistent hiccups for the past 10 days. Bolsonaro’s son Flávio said his father had undergone a precautionary procedure to remove fluid from his stomach and emergency surgery may be necessary. Officials at São Paulo’s military hospital said the president would be under observation for 24 to 48 hours.

The Amazon emergency. The Amazon rainforest is now a net producer of carbon dioxide, according to a new study by Brazilian researchers. Fires, deliberately ignited to clear land for cattle farming and agriculture, along with deforestation and years of drought contributed to reversing the Amazon’s previous status as a carbon sink. Researchers from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research found the trade-off between carbon capture and emissions is not even close: The forest is now producing 1.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year while only absorbing 500 million metric tons, a net emission roughly equivalent to Japan’s annual carbon output.

Twitter censorship. In a new transparency report, social media giant Twitter noted an increase in the number of government demands to remove content posted by journalists and news outlets in 2020. Governments made 361 legal demands of Twitter to remove content in the second half of 2020, a 26 percent increase from the first six months of that year. The Indian government made the most requests to remove content, followed by Turkey, Pakistan, and Russia. Twitter said it removed five tweets from journalists and news outlets based on these legal demands.

Peru’s election. Socialist candidate Pedro Castillo is set to be officially confirmed as Peru’s new president, more than five weeks after the country chose between him and conservative candidate Keiko Fujimori. Fujimori’s claims of fraud have now been reviewed and rejected by an electoral panel, paving the way for Castillo’s inauguration. Fujimori’s party could still delay proceedings if it comes through on a plan to challenge roughly 5,400 more votes, although Castillo’s 44,000-vote lead means any findings in Fujimori’s favor wouldn’t change the ultimate result.

The Dutch village of Maartensdijk, near Utrecht, on Wednesday unveiled what it claimed to be the world’s longest solar cycling path—a 360-yard stretch featuring fortified solar panels to generate electricity. The pilot project is part of a number of solar bike paths across the country as the Netherlands plans for a zero carbon future. “We have a very full province with not much room, and for that reason, you have to try dual use. So if you can use roads to generate energy, you have a double advantage,” Arne Schaddelee, a provincial official, told the Associated Press.