What’s Next for Boris Johnson?

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffers another political blow, the United States and Russia clash at the United Nations, and Myanmar’s junta attempts to quash protests. 

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After weathering weeks of political scandals, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suffered another blow Monday after a scathing investigation blasted his government for its “failures of leadership” and culture of “excessive” drinking. 

In the long-anticipated report—which was redacted under police orders—the author Sue Gray, a senior civil servant, said Downing Street’s decision to hold lockdown parties was “hard to justify.”

“Some of the events should not have been allowed to take place,” she wrote. “Other events should not have been allowed to develop as they did.”

With the release of the report, Johnson is now in an increasingly precarious position. After Gray’s findings were published, British authorities confirmed they were investigating eight days when alleged illegal gatherings took place and had secured more than 300 photos and 500 pages of documents. 

On Monday, Johnson also came under fire from many members of Parliament as they interrogated him about the gatherings. Former Prime Minister Theresa May led the charge with a blistering statement: “Either my right honorable friend had not read the rules or didn’t understand what they meant, and others around him, or they didn’t think the rules applied to Number 10,” she said. “Which was it?”

This is a “moment of maximum danger for him,” Matthias Matthijs, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Foreign Policy. “The next few weeks are kind of key.”

In the coming weeks, Johnson, having spurned calls to resign, will be bracing for the public response to two key findings: first, the results of the Metropolitan Police’s official investigation, and second, Gray’s full report, which Johnson agreed to publish after the police inquiry, under significant political pressure.

Johnson’s political future will likely be determined by his fellow Conservative MPs, who could trigger a vote of no confidence to oust him if at least 54 of them formally request it. If the vote takes place—and Johnson secures the support of the majority—he is safe, and lawmakers will have to wait a year before holding another vote. Eight Conservative MPs have already publicly called for him to step down.

Upcoming polls may also factor into their political calculus. As Johnson’s political star dims, his fall from grace could hurt his party’s prospects, as Owen Matthews writes in Foreign Policy. And with local elections around the corner in May, continued bad press could damage the party’s chances. 

“They’re already expected to do poorly because people are frustrated,” Matthijs said. “But now if this drags on for weeks and even a month or two, then they’re going to get clobbered.” 

Security Council standoff. As the Ukraine crisis escalates, the United States and Russia clashed in a tense faceoff at a U.N. Security Council session on Monday. In the meeting, which Washington initiated, both countries were on the offensive. While Russian Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya accused the West of “whipping up tensions” and “provoking escalation,” U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield charged Moscow with “attempting, without any factual basis, to paint Ukraine and Western countries as the aggressors to fabricate a pretext for attack.” The session ended, unsurprisingly, without significant breakthroughs. 

Myanmar protests. One year after Myanmar’s military seized power, civilians are planning nationwide protests to mark the anniversary of the coup. Across the country, protesters are gearing up for a “Silent Strike,” in which people stay home and businesses close during the day in symbolic opposition to military rule. 

These plans irked the country’s security forces, which threatened legal action and arrested dozens of civilians preparing for the strike in the days preceding the anniversary. To circumvent these threats, some businesses are embracing more creative methods of protest, including hiking up prices and refusing to sell items instead of closing down.

Reviving the Iran deal? Negotiators from the United States and its European allies are “in a final stretch” of restoring the Iran nuclear deal, senior Biden administration officials said on Monday. Facets of the agreement could mark a return to the 2015 deal, although officials stressed that the ultimate decisions are in Tehran’s hands. “Now is the time for Iran to decide whether it’s prepared to make those decisions,” one official said.

Mexico’s migrant crisis. Compared with January 2021, the number of migrants detained in Mexico increased by 78 percent this year, according to Mexico’s National Immigration Institute. From Jan. 1 to Jan. 30, 2022, 16,740 migrants were detained; during the same period last year, 9,406 people were. Children under the age of 18 accounted for 14.5 percent of the detained migrants, the agency said, and 780 of them were traveling alone. The exact reasons behind the surge in migration are unclear. 

Israel’s apartheid designation. Israel has urged the human rights group Amnesty International not to release a report that accuses it of the international crime of apartheid—defined as “an institutionalized regime of systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over any other racial group.” Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid accused the group of being “another radical organization which echoes propaganda without seriously checking the facts.” Human Rights Watch and the Israeli rights group B’Tselem have already applied the apartheid label to Israel’s military occupation of Palestinian land.

The world’s first-ever professional pillow fighting league has held its first championship game, with 16 men and eight women competing for the coveted title of Pillow Fighting Champion. During the competition, contestants clobbered each other with brightly colored pillows for the chance to win $5,000 in prize money. “The fighters don’t like to get hurt, and there’s a lot of people who don’t want to see the blood,” said Steve Williams, the organization’s CEO. “They want to see good competition. They just don’t want to see the violence.”