Biden Urges Russia to Avoid ‘Self-Inflicted Wound’

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. President Joe Biden warns Russia against Ukraine invasion in White House speech, ASEAN foreign ministers meet for two-day retreat, and France mulls Mali withdrawal.

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U.S. President Joe Biden continued to warn of the threat of Ukraine’s imminent invasion by Russian forces on Tuesday, while still offering Moscow diplomatic exits, as he gave his first direct-to-camera speech on the situation in Ukraine since a Russian military buildup began months ago.

Biden said there remains “plenty of room for diplomacy and for de-escalation,” in a speech that framed a Russian attack on Ukraine as a “war of choice … without cause or reason” that would end up as a “self-inflicted wound.”

The president’s remarks came as Russia also continued to signal its desire to calm tensions, as its defense ministry announced a withdrawal of units from its southern and western military districts bordering Ukraine, providing video of tanks being loaded onto railway platforms.

Biden addressed the apparent withdrawal with skepticism, saying that U.S. analysts had not yet concluded whether any pullback was taking place and Russia’s forces “remain very much in a threatening position.”

“An invasion remains distinctly possible,” Biden added.

Writing in Kommersant, Andrei Kolesnikov, a Russian journalist considered close to Vladimir Putin, assessed the Russian president’s demeanor during his joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday. Putin “did not say a word about the threat of war,” Kolesnikov wrote, speaking instead about the transit of European gas supplies through Ukraine “with such inner calm” that one could reach an easy conclusion: “He really does not seriously think about any invasion.”

With conflicting messages swirling, those trying to read the tea leaves can see whatever they want. Putin’s comments about a “genocide” in Ukraine’s Donbass region sound like a pretext for at least a Crimea-style incursion, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s comments that Russia has not reached “the end of the story” while preparing a 10-page reply to the latest U.S. and NATO comments on Russian proposals suggest diplomacy is still a viable option.

Those who view U.S. intelligence reporting of an imminent invasion as hysterical exaggerations have been somewhat vindicated by the lack of any military action. Those who think the United States is playing a savvy game in the information war can point to those same U.S. intelligence reports.

With so much up in the air, waiting for action in any direction continues. Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military with the think tank CNA, gives one signpost: the end of joint Russia-Belarus military exercises—planned for Feb. 20.

“Right now it’s unclear if Russian signaling is a genuine sign of deescalation, or an attempt to recapture the narrative (and initiative), adjusting to US disclosures,” he wrote on Twitter. “I wouldn’t jump to conclusions. Wait to see if forces withdraw after 20th.”

ASEAN meets. ASEAN foreign ministers gather on Wednesday in the Cambodian city of Siem Reap and online for a two-day retreat. Just nine of the 10 ASEAN nations will attend the gathering amid a dispute over Myanmar’s representation at the summit. ASEAN chair Cambodia has barred representatives from Myanmar’s ruling military junta from attending, and Myanmar’s military rejected an offer to send a “nonpolitical” figure instead. 

France’s Mali mission. French President Emmanuel Macron will meet with European allies on Wednesday to discuss the future of French-led counterterrorism operations in Mali, with a withdrawal likely as relations between Mali’s military government and the West deteriorate. Macron is expected to make a statement on the matter either Wednesday or Thursday, when European Union and African Union heads of state hold a two-day summit.

Pelosi in Israel. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi leads a congressional delegation to Israel on Wednesday on a trip focused on “recognizing our shared democratic values and mutual security.” Pelosi is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, where the two are expected to discuss Iran deal negotiations in Vienna. Pelosi’s trip is part of a three-nation tour, with stops in Germany and the United Kingdom to follow. 

Ethiopia eases state of emergency. Ethiopia’s parliament voted on Tuesday to lift the country’s state of emergency, in place since November when Tigray People’s Liberation Front forces came within roughly 200 miles of the capital, Addis Ababa. The original order called for a six-month state of emergency, but lawmakers chose to lift it early due to the improving security situation. The fate of hundreds of ethnic Tigrayans arrested during the emergency period is not yet known.

Workers in Belgium will have the right to request a four-day workweek under new labor laws agreed by the country’s governing coalition on Tuesday. Unlike trials in Iceland, where workers put in fewer hours for the same pay as a five-day week, workers in Belgium are expected to condense their regular workweek into four days instead. Employers don’t necessarily have to grant the request, but they must now put any rejection in writing. 

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo hailed the reforms as the start of a new direction for the country. “If you compare our country with others, you’ll often see we’re far less dynamic,” De Croo said. “After two difficult years, the labor market has evolved. With this agreement, we are setting the benchmarks for a good economy.”