U.S. Questions Russia’s Withdrawal Narrative

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: U.S. officials reject Russia’s claims of troop withdrawals, Iran talks enter final stages, and the European Union-African Union summit begins in Brussels.

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Russian state media reported that Ukrainian forces began shelling pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region in the early hours of Thursday morning as U.S. and NATO sources continued to express skepticism on Russia’s claims of dismantling part of its military buildup around Ukraine.

A report from RIA news agency said Ukrainian forces fired mortar shells and grenades at several settlements in the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic, citing an unnamed military officer of the joint Ukraine-Russia cease-fire observation body.

It’s unclear whether Russia will make hay out of the report, especially given the scores of cease-fire violations reported by international monitors daily. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) monitoring mission recorded more than 150 violations in Donetsk and Luhansk on Feb. 16 alone, including 88 explosions.

Price’s warnings. On Wednesday, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price followed up on U.S. President Joe Biden’s speech the day before by warning of Russian attempts at destabilization, especially through the media, in coming days.

Price highlighted U.S. worries over Russian government descriptions of a “genocide” taking place in Ukraine’s Donbass region, calling it a false narrative to create a pretext for a Russian assault.

Price also warned of “false claims” regarding civilian mass graves, which follows the announcement last Friday by Denis Pushilin, head of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, that more than 130 mass graves were discovered on the disputed territory, a claim the United Nations said it had “no information” about.

Chief among U.S. concerns was whether to trust Russia’s claim of withdrawing troops and attempting to de-escalate tensions. Price said Russia’s claims were without basis: “More Russian forces, not fewer, are at the border. And they are moving, concerningly, into fighting positions.”

In Moscow on Wednesday, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova derided NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who had earlier echoed Price’s skepticism of a Russian withdrawal, as a “NATO has-been,” citing his upcoming role as the head of Norway’s central bank.

Zakharova also took aim at Western media outlets, which she accused of trying to will a war into existence: “To the regret of many Western mass media, once again, the war failed to begin.”

“Possibly, their pages were scenes of ferocious battles, but all this has nothing to do with the reality,” she added.

If Russia is withdrawing, how would the West know? As FP’s Amy Mackinnon, Jack Detsch, and Colum Lynch report, the effort involves a lot more than taking Russia at its word. Surveillance flights by NATO members and Sweden have increased over the past month, with a peak of 22 flights undertaken on Feb. 10. Still, interpreting the images taken during those flights “is more of an art than a science,” they report, making it difficult to get a full picture of the Russian military’s movements.

As the Wall Street Journal reports, eyes in the sky are about as close as U.S. intelligence can get to understanding Russian intentions, as they continue to struggle to access Putin’s inner circle.

Iran talks. Negotiations to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal appear to be in their final days, according to statements from several countries involved in the talks. On Wednesday, Iranian chief negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani said the sides were “closer than ever” to reaching a deal, and the U.S. State Department said the talks were “in the midst of the final stages.”

“We have reached tipping point now. It’s not a matter of weeks; it’s a matter of days,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian told lawmakers on Wednesday.

EU-AU Summit. European Union heads of state will host their African Union counterparts in Brussels today for the sixth EU-AU summit. The summit is expected to include new announcements on pharmaceutical cooperation as well as investments from the EU Global Gateway initiative, the European Union’s answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The summit also comes as France is expected to withdraw troops from Mali, after a nine-year campaign to combat jihadis in the Sahel region. The withdrawal comes amid a dispute with Mali’s new military leadership over France’s mission in the country and has recently turned instead to the Russian Wagner Group.

In a nod to Europe’s competing priorities, EU leaders will gather briefly before the summit for an informal meeting on Ukraine.

Bolsonaro in Hungary. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro visits Hungary today, where he is expected to meet with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Bolsonaro’s visit comes a day after he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and said his country stood in “solidarity” with Russia. Putin named Brazil Russia’s most important partner in Latin America; neither leader mentioned Ukraine. Both men expressed their condolences for the victims of mudslides in the Brazilian city of Petrópolis, which killed at least 94 people.

Bolsonaro’s trip to Hungary’s capital, Budapest, comes as more far-right figures are expected to meet with Orban before an April 3 election, with former U.S. President Donald Trump also invited to Hungary in the coming weeks.

France’s hijab ban. France’s National Assembly is set to consider a bill that would ban the wearing of the hijab in sporting competitions under the guise of prohibiting “conspicuous religious symbols.” The measure was added as an amendment to a sporting reform bill by the more conservative Senate. The National Assembly, controlled by French President Emmanuel Macron’s party, is opposed to the move and is expected to remove the amendment. 

Burkina Faso’s “transition.” Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba was sworn in as Burkina Faso’s new president on Wednesday, three weeks after a coup deposed President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré. Damiba, an army lieutenant colonel, was also named supreme commander of the country’s armed forces. Unlike Mali and Guinea, Burkina Faso has so far avoided sanctions following its coup, but the country has yet to say when it plans to return to democratic leadership.

Less than four years after it finally permitted its women to drive automobiles, Saudi Arabia is now opening the door for them to drive trains.

Spanish train operator Renfe reported receiving more than 28,000 applications from women interested in becoming the kingdom’s first female train drivers. It currently employs 80 male drivers in Saudi Arabia and has opened 30 spots for women. Renfe said it already whittled down the number of applicants by half through an online screening of academic credentials and English-language knowledge.