Europe Could Face Its Worst Refugee Crisis in This Century

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fuels a refugee crisis, oil prices spike, and the pandemic’s global death toll hits a grim new milestone.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to fuel Europe’s worst refugee crisis this century, according to the United Nations refugee agency, as around 2 million people flee the country to escape Moscow’s military assault. 

Nearly two weeks into the invasion, the conflict has already taken a grim toll. According to U.N. statistics, the war has killed at least 360 civilians and injured hundreds more, though the actual figures are likely significantly higher. Russian forces now appear to be targeting civilian areas while cease-fire and evacuation efforts have largely failed, jeopardized by sustained shelling and bombardments. 

Aid agencies and officials warn that prolonged war risks deepening the crisis and could potentially displace as many as 5 million people as the fallout from the invasion spirals into a wider humanitarian catastrophe. 

“Hour by hour, minute by minute, more people are fleeing the terrifying reality of violence,” Filippo Grandi, the U.N. high commissioner for refugees, said in a statement. “Unless there is an immediate end to the conflict, millions more are likely to be forced to flee Ukraine.”

The situation is especially dire in cities like Mariupol, Ukraine, where around 200,000 people have been trapped by Russia’s military bombardment for five days. Without running water and power and unable to evacuate, many civilians have only been surviving on rapidly dwindling food supplies.

“The humanitarian situation in Mariupol is catastrophic,” Laurent Ligozat, Doctors Without Borders’ emergency coordinator, said in a statement. “It is not possible to bring any relief supplies into the city.”

Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have largely failed to bring any relief. In recent days, Moscow has proposed establishing humanitarian corridors or demilitarized evacuation zones that both parties must agree to. Its offer, however, came with a catch: Most of the routes would lead refugees into Russia or its ally, Belarus. 

Kyiv swiftly rejected these conditions, with a spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky calling them “completely immoral.” “[Russia] wants to supply humanitarian aid for pictures on TV and wants the corridors to lead in its direction,” the spokesperson said. 

As the shelling continues, refugees have crossed into Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, Romania, and other European countries, where they have been widely welcomed—a warm reaction that has stood in sharp contrast to the continent’s previous response to the Syrian refugee crisis. 

Accommodating this large influx of people will require both governments and private organizations to mobilize sufficient resources now, the German Marshall Fund’s Bart M. J. Szewczyk writes in Foreign Policy this week. 

“The decision to accept and protect Ukrainian refugees is relatively easy and straightforward,” Szewczyk writes. “But the sheer scale will strain Europe and the world, requiring systematic preparation and investment now in order to manage over the long haul.”

Spiking oil prices. Oil prices surged to their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis on Monday, a day after Washington said it was considering banning Russian oil imports. “We are now in very active discussions with our European partners about banning the import of Russian oil to our countries,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday. Although the United States was looking for a joint response, he said, “I’m not going to rule out taking action one way or another irrespective of what they do.”

Blinken’s statement comes as senior U.S. officials traveled to Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves, last weekend in a possible bid to secure an alternative oil supply. On Sunday, Axios also reported that Biden administration officials were discussing visiting Saudi Arabia about its oil exports. 

The pandemic’s grim legacy. The COVID-19 pandemic’s global death toll officially reached a grim new milestone on Monday: 6 million deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering. 

The number, which likely undercounts the true global death toll, is a stark reminder of the pandemic’s devastating costs. On average, the virus took the lives of 9,000 people per day over the past 28 days, the study said, while roughly 4 percent of all COVID-19 deaths were reported last month.

Pakistan’s women’s march. As Pakistani women’s rights activists and organizers prepare to march for International Women’s Day, many have faced growing threats and pushback—a reflection of the country’s tense political climate. Pakistan is currently ranked 153 out of 156 countries on the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap Report. 

Within the government, Pakistan’s minister of religious affairs has urged the government to rebrand March 8 from “International Women’s Day” to “Hijab Day,” FP’s Lynne O’Donnell reports from Islamabad. As the state works to consolidate power, she writes, it is exploiting religious conservatives to ensure that ideas like gender equality do not threaten its authoritarian control.

Amazon under threat. The Amazon rainforest is approaching a crucial tipping point that could result in irreversible environmental damage when crossed, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change. Although it’s unclear when this threshold may be reached, the study said, breaching it could transform large swaths of rainforest into a savanna in a span of decades—a loss that would have enormous global climate and ecological ramifications.

After climbing a tree to rescue a stranded cat, a teenage boy in Indianapolis, Indiana, found himself in the very same position: in serious need of assistance. According to the Indianapolis Fire Department, the teen—who was only identified as Owen—easily scaled 35 feet to reach the cat but struggled to descend. With the help of the city’s firefighting crew, Owen was eventually able to return safely to the ground. 

The cat appeared to disregard his efforts, instead remaining in the tree throughout the two-hourlong ordeal. “The cat seemed to enjoy the commotion but made no effort to climb down the tree,” said Rita Reith, the battalion chief.