Zelensky Makes His Case to Congress

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s address to the U.S. Congress, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s trip to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and more news worth watching from around the world.

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Later this morning in Washington, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will address a joint audience of both the U.S. House and Senate via video as he makes his case for more support in his country’s fight against Russia.

Zelensky, once derided as a novice out of his depth, has put his detractors to shame, expertly marshaling the image of a wartime leader, complete with Hollywood-style one-liners and a combat-chic wardrobe. (French President Emmanuel Macron has already taken notes, aping Zelensky in a hoodie and stubble in calls at the Élysée Palace on Sunday).

There has been substance to match the style; his very visible presence in a city under siege has helped keep morale high in a country suffering from Russian bombardment and a refugee exodus. The practical upshot of his successful media campaign has been an outpouring of sympathy for his country, something he is hoping to convert to weapons and other military equipment.

When Zelensky speaks to the U.S. Congress today, it’s unlikely to play out like a movie, with lawmakers changing their minds following a stirring speech. That’s partially because it won’t come with cinematic trappings—his address will take place in the Capitol’s visitor auditorium, as the traditional chambers are not equipped to carry video—but also because Congress is already a friendly audience.

As FP’s Pentagon and national security reporter Jack Detsch explained, Congress has been vocal in its support for Ukraine long before Russia’s invasion, either by pushing for early Russian sanctions or advocating more military aid for Ukraine’s forces.

“Congress has always been trying to move the Overton window to push the administration into more hawkish positions on Ukraine,” Detsch told Morning Brief. And although the ultimate decision rests with the White House, congressional pressure can often translate into real action, especially when the geopolitical winds change.

“I think we’ve seen with the administration’s targeting of oligarchs and broader sanctions, including export controls, these are things that Congress was very actively writing legislation on. So once the administration decided to go harder on Russia, they already had their playbook written on Capitol Hill,” Detsch said.

Zelensky is expected to once again ask for more air support, specifically fighter jets and air defense systems, to counter Russia’s superiority in that area (although it’s one that has been largely absent from the conflict to date).

The Biden administration has so far been reluctant to indulge Ukraine, arguing that supplying aircraft—with the increased need for Western training and even personnel that comes with them—could be seen by Russia as escalatory. (An undoubtedly escalatory move, establishing a no-fly zone, has been similarly dismissed by the Biden administration.)

It leaves the White House playing a tricky bad cop role to Zelensky’s good cop. U.S. Department of Defense officials have instead pointed to the array of weapons already available to Ukraine, as well as the fact that much of its fighting force remains intact.

“I would say that without knowing what he’s going to say tomorrow, we certainly are familiar with what the asks have been,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said of Zelensky’s speech on Tuesday. “We have provided our own assessment of what does make sense and doesn’t make sense.”

As Justin Bronk, a research fellow on air power at RUSI, explained via email, direct transfers of U.S. aircraft would be a wasted exercise, seeing as Ukraine’s military doesn’t have the background to fly U.S. equipment. “It would take many months, if not several years to train them to a sufficient level of proficiency, and to establish the logistic and maintenance support networks and trained personnel required for the Ukrainian Air Force to operate U.S.-made aircraft,” Bronk wrote.

That leaves the option of Soviet-era MiG fighter jets, with the latest idea involving Poland handing over its aging fleet to Ukraine and receiving U.S. F-16s as replacements. Writing in Foreign Policy on Monday, Blake Herzinger sought to debunk the argument that giving Ukraine these old fighter planes would help in tipping the balance of the war. Much more effective, he argues, is to back what already works, such as portable anti-tank missiles.

Johnson meets MBZ and MBS. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arrives in the United Arab Emirates today, where he is expected to meet with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed. He is later scheduled to travel to the Saudi capital, Riyadh, for talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Johnson is expected to make the case for both Gulf countries to increase oil production to counter rising energy prices in Europe.

Turkey in Russia. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu is in Moscow today for talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Cavusoglu will follow his Moscow visit with a trip to Kyiv to see his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, on Thursday. Turkey, along with Israel, has stood out as a possible mediator in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

U.N. calls for Yemen funds. The United Nations, alongside co-hosts Sweden and Switzerland, will host a high-level pledging event to help fund relief efforts in Yemen, the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe, and whose war between Iranian-linked Houthis and a Saudi-led military coalition enters its eighth year. The hosts plan to raise $3.9 billion in today’s event and hope for an improvement on last year’s drive, which only reached 61 percent of the target funding.

Russia and the Iran deal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has indicated that Russia will not stand in the way of reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, despite eleventh-hour demands suggesting it might do so, saying on Tuesday that he had received written guarantees that Russia’s participation would proceed as agreed between major powers. “I have heard how the Americans have every day tried to accuse us of delaying the agreement—that is a lie. The agreement is not finally approved in several capitals, and the Russian capital—Moscow—is not one of them,” Lavrov said.