Will Europe Ever End Russian Energy Imports?

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at Europe’s attempts to say goodbye to Russian energy imports, a U.N. vote to suspend Russia from its Human Rights Council, and more news worth following from around the world.

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell travel to Ukraine today alongside Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger, the highest-profile delegation to visit the war-torn country since Russia’s invasion.

Their visit comes as Europe weighs further sanctions on Russia following reports of atrocities committed by Russian soldiers in the town of Bucha, near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv.

After focusing on Russian banks, oligarchs, and others close to the Kremlin’s inner circle, European Union leaders are now considering even more drastic options: banning Russian imports of coal, oil, and gas.

The economic pain of such a move would not just be felt in Russia—which gains as much as $1 billion per day from Europe’s energy purchases—but across Europe and throughout the wider world, with an energy crunch spurring higher prices, a return to rationing, and a possible recession.

How much pain a European embargo (or a Russian cutoff) would cause on the continent is unclear and depends on what kinds of energy Europe decides to block.

As journalist Martin Wolf writes in the Financial Times, economists differ on the potential impact of a gas embargo, with the GDP of Germany, which imported 58 percent of its gas from Russia in 2020, expected to decline by as little as 0.2 percent or as much as 6 percent.

That uncertainty partially explains why European leaders have so far opted for the safest option: banning Russian coal. Although coal is not a major part of Europe’s energy mix, the move would deprive Russia of roughly $4.3 billion in annual revenue. It’s also less likely to upset supplies, as the United States, Colombia, and South Africa could make up for the shortfall, according to a German industry group representing companies that rely on coal imports.

There’s also a strategic element, as Henning Gloystein of the Eurasia Group explained to NPR, with leaders worrying that going too big too soon may exhaust their options: “The big gun in Europe would be gas. And that is … sort of the last bullet they want to have in their sanction gun to be able to fire at Russia if things get really seriously worse from here.”

But that doesn’t mean Europe isn’t preparing for a future without Russian gas. It plans to dramatically increase imports of liquefied natural gas from other suppliers, such as the United States and Australia, to make up for the shortfall. The volume of new imports needed is roughly equal to the entire annual demand of South Korea. It’s an apt comparison, seeing as European importers would also need to outbid their Asian counterparts, contributing to higher prices overall and possible supply shortages in the countries that lose out on imports.

As Bloomberg reports, the race for gas could price India, Bangladesh, and Thailand out of the market, a phenomenon already taking place in Pakistan.

Energy expert Nikos Tsafos, writing in Euractiv, argues for Europe to approach its gas search carefully by helping the countries it outbids develop renewable energy capacities, intervening in the global gas market, and increasing production in its own territory.

If Europe ever does move on from Russian gas, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania could be the trendsetters. On April 2, the head of Latvia’s natural gas storage operator Conexus Baltic Grid announced that Russian gas is “no longer flowing” to those three countries. Instead, the Baltic states will rely on reserves, a tactic that depends on a warm year ahead to prove successful.

UNGA votes. Today the United Nations General Assembly will vote on whether to suspend Russia from the U.N. Human Rights Council. The U.S.-backed measure would need the support of a two-thirds majority to pass.

At the beginning of March, the assembly approved a resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by a 141-5 vote, with 35 abstentions, and followed up on March 24 with a 140-5 vote, with 38 abstentions, on a resolution blaming Russia for Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis. As FP’s Colum Lynch reports, Russia has issued a veiled warning to other countries that anything other than a no vote today “will serve the goal of the United States and be considered accordingly by the Russian Federation.”

Pakistan’s decision. Pakistan’s top court could rule as soon as today on the legality of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s decision to dissolve parliament after a party ally threw out a motion of no confidence that would have led to a vote on the Pakistani leader’s future. The court has a number of options: ordering parliament to be restored, calling for fresh elections, or accepting Khan’s defense—which holds that the court cannot intervene in parliamentary matters.

Israel’s shaky coalition. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett lost his 61-59 parliamentary majority on Wednesday after the departure of Idit Silman, a religious nationalist backbencher who ostensibly left due to disagreements about the enforcement of kosher food regulations in hospitals during Passover. Given Israel’s rules for “constructive no-confidence” motions, the government can continue to function so long as there are not 61 votes for an alternative governing coalition and prime minister—a scenario that is highly unlikely.

Wary of the prospect of fresh elections, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz said he and Bennett “will work and try to preserve the government,” which formed largely in opposition to previous Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following Silman’s departure, Netanyahu has urged wavering members of Bennett’s coalition to “come home” as he works to break the ideologically diverse coalition.

Sri Lanka’s crisis. Chief Government Whip Johnston Fernando told Sri Lanka’s parliament that Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa “will not resign from his post under any circumstances,” amid mass protests stemming from the country’s economic crisis. Rajapaksa has made some moves to placate protesters in recent days, such as lifting state of emergency measures and forming an advisory group of “economic and fiscal experts” to assist in engaging with the International Monetary Fund.

Mali’s massacre. Malian military investigators will probe an alleged massacre in the village of Moura, Mali’s military prosecutor announced on Wednesday, following reports that at least 300 civilians were killed by local and foreign forces at the end of March. Mali’s military initially announced it had killed 203 militants in the village, only for the account to be contradicted by Human Rights Watch, which called the events “the worst single atrocity reported in Mali’s decade-long armed conflict.”

New Zealand’s bomb disposal force was mobilized to a potato processing plant on Tuesday after a worker found a grenade among the thousands of tubers destined to become french fries. The worker initially mistook the device for a dirty potato until realizing it was a grenade on further inspection (and consultation with a coworker who had “seen a lot of war movies”). New Zealand’s defense forces soon arrived at the factory, identifying the grenade as a World War II vintage and, importantly, no longer a threat.