Macron Begins His Fight for a Second Term

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at France’s presidential election, EU-Ukraine talks in Kyiv, and more news worth following from round the world.

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French voters head to the polls on Sunday to cast their votes in the first round of the French presidential election, with Emmanuel Macron seeking a second five-year term as head of the world’s seventh-largest economy. With Macron a shoo-in to reach the second-round runoff, taking place on April 24, voters will decide on whether he is challenged by a candidate from the far-right or far-left of the political spectrum.

Judging by the polls, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally, seems most likely to make it through. She has had to fight within a crowded right-wing field, including the watered-down option of Valérie Pécresse and the extreme right Éric Zemmour. As FP columnist James Traub wrote on Thursday, Le Pen has “proved herself a far more skillful and agile politician than she appeared to be five years ago” focusing on economic issues and quietly unfriending the previously close Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon has once again emerged as the champion of the left, surging to third place in recent weeks at roughly 17 percent support. His rival, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, has failed to make much of an impact and is likely to receive about 2.5 percent of first-round votes. Cole Stangler, writing in Foreign Policy on Wednesday, argued that a Macron-Mélenchon runoff would have lasting political effects, including a reorientation away from divisive issues of identity and immigration to more urgent ones like climate change and the economy.

As Europe grapples with its response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the issue has played a minor part in a campaign that has hinged on domestic concerns. A recent Ipsos poll put the cost of living as the top concern among French voters, followed by the health system and the environment.

Just three other issues polled over 20 percent: the war in Ukraine, immigration, and retirement. (Macron wants to raise the pensionable age from 62 to 65, while Le Pen and Mélenchon want it reduced to 60, though they use different criteria to determine who is eligible to retire then.)

Should Le Pen and Macron face each other in the second round in a repeat of 2017’s matchup, a win for the incumbent isn’t a foregone conclusion. Polls of second-round voting intentions have Macron ahead, but just barely, with Le Pen’s support edging close to the margin of error.

If first-round polls are any indication, the most popular candidate seems to be none-of-the-above. Thirty-one percent of voters don’t intend to turn up on voting day, a higher percentage than supports any one candidate. That apathy helped maintain the status quo in the last nationwide election, for regional offices in 2021, when a record-low turnout dashed the hopes of Le Pen’s National Rally to gain local footholds. As Traub writes, Macron’s hands-off approach to the campaign is not exactly galvanizing voters, and it could yet lead to a historic upset.

Looking back. Adam Tooze, another FP columnist (and now New York magazine cover star) reflected on what five years of Macron revealed about his attitudes toward politics and the role of the state as well as whether Europe is tilting further to the right than recent leadership changes in Germany and Italy suggest.

EU leaders in Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Kyiv today. Von der Leyen is accompanied by EU High Representative Josep Borrell as well as Slovakian Prime Minister Eduard Heger and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer.

The European Union is set to follow through with a ban on Russian coal imports, although it is not set to take effect until August, according to documents seen by Reuters.

On Wednesday, Zelensky pushed Europe to go further and ban Russian oil and gas before it was too late. “The only question is how many more Ukrainian men and women the Russian military will have time to kill, so that you, some politicians—and we know you—can borrow a little determination somewhere,” Zelensky said.

Russia-Armenia talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan in Moscow today for talks. The meeting comes days after Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev joined European Council President Charles Michel in Brussels and agreed to “move rapidly towards a peace agreement” between the two sides, with each country’s foreign ministers tasked with drafting it.

Pakistan’s showdown. Pakistan’s parliament will go ahead with a no-confidence vote in Prime Minister Imran Khan this Saturday after the Supreme Court on Thursday overruled a decision to throw out the vote made by the deputy speaker earlier this week. In an apparent response on Twitter on Thursday, Khan, who has refused to step down, pledged to “fight till the last ball” and said he would address the nation today.

Mexico’s recall vote. Mexicans will vote on Sunday on whether to recall President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in an event seen as a form of political theater demanded by the president himself. It’s unlikely the vote will lead to his ouster, considering his 60 percent approval ratings, or see the 40 percent turnout it requires to become binding.

Yemen’s anti-Houthi shake up. Yemen’s exiled President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi agreed to relinquish his position and hand power over to a presidential council on Thursday, a move that appeared to be coordinated with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as the two countries announced a $3 billion aid package soon afterward. Yemen’s Houthis have dismissed the move as part of “illegitimate decisions made by illegitimate parties beyond their borders.”

A British charity is seeking workers to temporarily staff the world’s most remote post office, at Port Lockroy in Antarctica. The position runs during the continent’s summer—November to March. As well as postal duties, candidates will be required to welcome visitors to the small on-site museum and conduct counts of the colony of Gentoo penguins nearby. Successful applicants should have skills in retail, heritage, conservation and building maintenance, and leadership or management, according to Lauren Luscombe, the charity’s Antarctic operations manager.