Erdogan Hosts MBS in Ankara

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, looking at Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Turkey, French parliamentary negotiations, Chinese President Xi Jinping’s BRICS gathering address, and more news worth following from around the world.

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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara today, as the two leaders seek to close a contentious chapter and put the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi—which took place in Istanbul and outraged the Turkish government at the time—firmly in the past.

The visit caps a three-nation regional tour for the Saudi de facto leader. On Sunday, he met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo, and yesterday, he was embraced warmly by Jordanian King Abdullah II in Amman, Jordan.

Today’s visit could come with some short-terms gains for Erdogan, with the Turkish economy in need of outside investment as runaway consumer inflation (up to 73.5 percent this year) and an unorthodox monetary policy scare off more traditional backers.

But it also reinforces a wider trend, built on the perception of U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East. “I think the region is now going through a post-Arab Spring era where every single actor in the region has come to realize that the very aggressive and militaristic policies that they followed after the uprisings undermined their interests and their security,” Gonul Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute, told Foreign Policy.

“I think they are now all trying a different approach, where they place more emphasis on diplomatic engagement and building economic and trade ties,” she added.

Saudi officials have paved the way for the visit by lifting a ban on Saudi citizens traveling to Turkey. A greater point of contention—an unofficial Saudi embargo on Turkish goods—ended earlier this year, and exports to Saudi Arabia have increased by 25 percent in the first quarter of 2022.

Turkey’s determination to sweep the Khashoggi affair under the rug appears to extend to the judiciary. Nimet Demir, the dissenting judge on the three-person panel that decided to transfer the murder case to Riyadh, has now been reassigned to a judicial backwater.

The visit, which follows one from Erdogan in the other direction in April, comes as the Saudi crown prince is on something of a victory lap. Outcry from world leaders over the killing of Khashoggi has largely faded away, soft-power moves in sport and entertainment are taking root, and Saudi Arabia’s vast oil wealth is now more pivotal than ever amid a supply crunch sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Erdogan is not alone. U.S. President Joe Biden travels to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in July to meet with Mohammed bin Salman and—as the White House has been at pains to point out—other Persian Gulf leaders.

Biden, himself, may not be able to convince the Saudis to bring down oil prices, but self-interest might. On Tuesday, China’s customs agency reported a dramatic increase in crude oil imports from Russia, up 55 percent from the same time last year. The increase, driven by discounted Russian barrels, knocks Saudi Arabia off the top spot as China’s largest source of crude.

France’s parliament. French President Emmanuel Macron continues to meet with opposition parliamentary groups in a bid to form a working coalition after his Ensemble bloc failed to win an absolute majority in Sunday’s elections. Macron is expected to lean on the center-right Les Républicains (LR) for support in a parliament with heavy left-wing and far-right representation.

That possibility remains up in the air even after LR leader Christian Jacob said it was “out of the question to enter into a coalition deal. That would be a betrayal of our voters,” following a meeting with Macron on Tuesday. Jacob’s stance has been questioned by other members of his party.

G-7 approaches. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock hosts G-7 foreign ministers today for a virtual meeting before Sunday’s G-7 summit in Bavaria, Germany. The meeting comes amid a busy week for Germany as it also plans to host an international conference on food security and grain exports from Ukraine in Berlin this Friday.

Xi opens BRICS forum. Chinese President Xi Jinping will provide the keynote speech at the BRICS Business Forum in Beijing today. The address will help set the scene ahead of a BRICS virtual summit with the leaders of Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa on Thursday.