Shinzo Abe Assassinated; U.K. Succession Battle Begins

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, looking at Britain’s next prime minister, the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, U.S.-China talks, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warning to the West, and more news worth following from around the world.

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Now that Boris Johnson has announced his intention to resign following a scandal-filled tenure as prime minister, attention is turning to who will replace the British leader.

Predicting who will be the next occupant of No. 10 Downing St. following a resignation is a fickle business. After David Cameron resigned in 2016 following Britain’s Brexit vote, Johnson was the favorite to succeed him. He ultimately ruled himself out of the running then, thus paving the way for Theresa May’s tumultuous premiership.

Today, there is no one of Johnson’s public stature waiting in the wings, but outside forces—particularly Russia’s war in Ukraine—have helped set the tone of the race.

Although Johnson helped shield himself from domestic criticism through his full-throated support of Ukraine, the main beneficiary of that policy may be his defense secretary, Ben Wallace.

Wallace is ranked as the current favorite by British betting companies and presents a more reserved personality after the bombast of Johnson. That seems to go down fine with the Conservative Party’s membership: A recent poll of those members shows Wallace topping the list of contenders, albeit with just 13 percent support.

Crucially, considering party rules that make the final decision a two-horse race, Wallace is the clear choice of Tories in head-to-head contests, according to the poll.

If selected, he would become the first prime minister to have served in the military since 1976, when Labour’s James Callaghan took office. His elevation would likely mean more of the same on Ukraine, given that Wallace was the architect of Britain’s Ukraine strategy, as Elisabeth Braw wrote in Foreign Policy on Wednesday.

As Braw writes, junior trade minister Penny Mordaunt (second place in the Conservative membership poll, with 12 percent) and Tom Tugendhat (considered an outside bet) fill out a roster of candidates with military experience who can offer the country serious policy expertise in the wake of Johnson’s scandal-plagued government. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss still considers herself an option, judging by her early departure from the G-20 ministerial meeting in Bali, Indonesia, to make her case at home.

Following behind Wallace is Rishi Sunak, the former finance minister who, along with outgoing health minister Sajid Javid, helped secure Johnson’s downfall with their resignations this week.

Sunak has swung from internet meme status to front-runner to his position today as a serious but bruised contender for the top job. (Sunak’s image was badly damaged this year over a scandal involving his wealthy wife’s non-domiciled tax status.)

Sunak does have one ace up his sleeve if he does go against Wallace: his support for the 2016 Brexit referendum. Wallace’s position back then in the Remain camp could damage him in a Conservative Party increasingly at the whims of its Euroskeptic faction.

That won’t keep Sunak free from the sniping of different factions, however. Johnson loyalist Jacob Rees-Mogg took a chance Thursday to land a blow against him, describing Sunak as “not a successful chancellor” who was “not alert to the inflationary problem.”

While his positions on Brexit mean those in Dublin, Brussels, and perhaps Washington may not lament Johnson’s departure, one European leader is sad to see the prime minister head to the exit. Johnson reportedly called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after his public announcement to assure him that military aid to Kyiv would not stop.

Like a latter-day David Hasselhoff, Johnson has earned hero status with Ukrainians while becoming a punchline almost everywhere else. “We all heard this news with sadness. Not only me, but also the entire Ukrainian society, which is very sympathetic to you,” Zelensky said in a statement. Though Johnson may not get memorialized so quickly in his home country, the town of Fontanka, near Odesa, has already named a street after him.

Qatar’s soccer stadiums will be alcohol-free during the 2022 World Cup, Reuters reports, as the majority-Muslim country attempts to thread the needle for international supporters headed to the country this November and December.

Unlike other Gulf states, Qatar does permit alcohol consumption in some hotels and bars but is hoping to avoid the alcohol-fueled free-for-alls that have defined recent FIFA tournaments. Whether the stadium VIP suites will be allowed to skirt the ban is not yet clear.