Biden’s Trip Masks a United States Still at War in the Middle East

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, looking at the U.S. military footprint in the Middle East and beyond, Italy’s wavering government, Sri Lanka’s protests, Ukraine’s grain hopes, and more news worth following from around the world.

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Biden, himself, appears to be at odds with his own proclamations. On June 8, Biden sent a letter to Congress on U.S. troop deployments and listed U.S. personnel engaged in combat operations in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Significant numbers of U.S. troops are still stationed in the region: 2,833 U.S. service members are deployed in Jordan while around 2,733 U.S. service members are in Saudi Arabia.

Although muddled messaging on U.S. military adventures abroad is not new for U.S. presidents, it comes at a time when U.S. operations are no longer confined to the Middle East.

Recently, the clandestine fights have broadened in geographic scope and increasingly involve missions in African nations. It’s part of a concept Katherine Yon Ebright, counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice’s liberty and national security program, described as “light footprint warfare,” and it’s not strictly off the books.

Under a program known as 127e (or 127-echo), U.S. special operations forces are authorized to essentially train up proxy forces to carry out U.S. missions abroad. An investigation by the Intercept found at least a dozen countries have played host to 127e operations from 2017 to 2020. Some environments are well known—like Syria, Yemen, and Iraq—while others in Tunisia, Cameroon, and Libya are less known.

The 127e missions are covered under a congressional war authorization, approved in 2001, which allows U.S. forces to target al Qaeda or an “associate force.” That legal wiggle room—in place for more than two decades—has often been criticized, but attempts to repeal it have been unsuccessful.

Ebright, the author of a forthcoming report on the legal methods used to pursue U.S. military operations abroad, told Foreign Policy such a broad interpretation risks undermining U.S. democratic accountability: “We go to the ballot box, and we don’t know: Where are we fighting? Who are we fighting? What are the costs of us fighting both in terms of U.S. dollars and U.S. lives as well as civilian lives abroad?”

If the United Arab Emirates has its way, the United States may be making a more transparent commitment of forces in the near future. Recent reports indicate that the United States may soon enter a formal defense agreement with the UAE, complete with security guarantees—an arrangement not even enjoyed by Israel.

Jon Hoffman, writing in Foreign Policy on Monday, has cautioned against the approach, arguing that such a move is bound to fail—investing U.S. resources and credibility into regimes that are inherently fragile.

“From a strategic perspective, the move risks cementing Washington’s commitment to the primary underlying structural problem in the Middle East—the authoritarian status quo—while yielding virtually zero benefits for the United States, particularly as it pertains to high oil prices,” Hoffman writes.

Ukraine’s grain. Russia and Ukraine made progress on efforts to export Ukraine’s grain, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said in a statement on Wednesday. The two sides have agreed to set up a coordination center to organize the safety of shipping routes as well as establish joint checks on grain leaving Ukrainian ports. The apparent breakthrough came after Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian, and United Nations officials met in Istanbul on Wednesday. Akar said a formal agreement will be signed next week.

Sri Lanka protests. Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe called for a nationwide curfew after another day of protests following the flight of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on Wednesday.

Protesters stormed Wickremesinghe’s offices on Wednesday, demanding his immediate resignation as he takes on the role of acting president. Wickremesinghe may yet stay on in his interim role if the country’s Parliament chooses him in a vote expected next week.

Italian politics. Italy’s government is in danger of collapse after one of its coalition parties indicated it would not support a vote of confidence tied to a new social spending plan. Giuseppe Conte, leader of the Five Star Movement and a former Italian prime minister, said his party would not take part in the vote, a decision that could have a domino effect on Italy’s unity government. It’s unclear whether Conte’s move is a negotiating tactic, as his party has been pushing for weeks for more generous social spending.

“I have said it before, and I will say it again. That is not in someone’s interest, nor the interest of the region for any military base, to be established in any Pacific Island country, let alone Solomon Islands,” Sogavare said.

“I think the reason is simple: The reason is regionalism. The moment we establish a foreign military base, we immediately become an enemy, and we also put our country and our people as targets for potential military strikes,” he added.