Will the Iran Deal Be Revived?

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re following the latest Iran deal progress, Turkish-Palestinian ties, and Fumio Kishida’s waning popularity in Japan.

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After months of false starts, an agreement to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal appears closer than ever, as the United States and Iran appear to have resolved many of the sticking points that have delayed a final sign-off.

The latest positive signs come after the European Union drafted what it described as a “final” text that both Iran and the United States have had under consideration since the beginning of August.

On Aug. 15, Iran returned its comments on the proposal, which EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell described on Monday as “reasonable,” as he expressed hope that the negotiators could return to Vienna this week to move forward on negotiations.

The United States has yet to issue its public comment on the proposal, but U.S. officials have noted some positive developments, especially that Iran has dropped its demand to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. list of foreign terrorist organizations. U.S. National Security Council Spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said that any reports saying that Iran has received U.S. concessions in return are “categorically false.”

In his Monday comments, Borrell suggested that the ball was in the U.S. court. “I hope that this response allows us to end the negotiations,” Borrell said of the coming U.S. response. “That’s my hope, but I cannot assure you that this will happen.”

Before Washington shows its hand, the White House has been in close consultation with the other Western parties to the deal, the so-called E3 of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. On Sunday, a call between U.S. President Joe Biden and his fellow E3 leaders gave a hint of challenges to come by highlighting the “need to strengthen support for partners in the Middle East region,” according to a White House readout.

Assuaging Israel’s concerns is a priority for the administration, and U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan holds talks with his Israeli counterpart Eyal Hulata this week. Others in the region seem less worried: The United Arab Emirates announced on Sunday that it was returning its ambassador to Tehran, marking a thaw following a six-year diplomatic freeze.

While the United States remains tight-lipped on the deal, oil prices have continued their downward trend over the prospects of new agreement, which would allow Iran to resume exports worldwide. It also wouldn’t come a moment too soon for consumers, with Iranian oil and gas able to fill a gap left by Russia’s forced exit.

Others remain skeptical. Eurasia Group’s Henry Rome, who has been tracking the deal since negotiations began 18 months ago, gives the chances of a deal this year as between 35 and 45 percent. Analysts at Goldman Sachs are also wary of a deal coming soon. “Our view continues to be that a deal is still unlikely in the short term, with a stalemate mutually beneficial,” analysts from the bank wrote last week.

Erdogan meets Abbas. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hosts Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, in Ankara. The meeting comes a week after Turkey and Israel agreed to restore full diplomatic relations following a four-year freeze. Abbas will hope to avoid the PR disaster of his last foreign trip, when he told a German audience that Israel’s actions against the Palestinians amounted to 50 Holocausts.

Russia-Syria ties. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov hosts his Syrian counterpart Faisal Mekdad today in Moscow. The meeting comes as fighting in northern Syria has increased in recent weeks, with Turkish, Kurdish, and Syrian government forces all trading fire.

Moscow blames Kyiv. Russia’s intelligence service on Monday blamed “Ukrainian special services” for carrying out a car bombing on Saturday that killed Darya Dugina, a 29-year-old journalist and the daughter of the prominent pro-Putin intellectual Alexander Dugin. Russia’s FSB also blamed Estonia for harboring the perpetrator of the attack, whom they suspected of being a Ukrainian national. Ukraine’s government has denied involvement.

Kishida’s slide. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s popularity has dropped dramatically to its lowest point since he took office in October 2021. Support for Kishida has plunged to 36 percent this month, down from 52 percent in July, according to a Mainichi Shimbun survey.

The drop in support appears to stem from the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which revealed ties between senior Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) figures and the Unification Church; 87 percent of those surveyed said the LDP’s relationship with the church was either “an extreme problem” or “something of a problem.”

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Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin sought to draw a line under her now-famous party antics on Monday after the results of her drug test came back negative. Marin had taken the test to head off allegations from the conservative opposition that her partying had been drug-fueled.

It’s another small victory for Marin after previous criticism of her dancing prompted a wave of support for the prime minister from other Finnish women, who took to social media to party under the hashtag #SolidarityWithSanna to defend her right to have a good time off the clock.