Russia and China Threats Are Not the Same

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! If you’re like us, you’ve been closely following the most anticipated elections of the year. We’re of course talking about the U.S. National Park Service’s Fat Bear Week. Well, the results are in, and there’s a clear winner despite (sigh) yes, a minor voter fraud scandal.

Okay, and now back to national security news. Here’s what’s on tap for the day: diving into U.S. President Joe Biden’s newly released National Security Strategy, how Iranian drones are offering Russia a helping hand, and the United Nations condemning Russia’s territory grab in Ukraine.

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National security nerds rejoice. The Biden administration (finally) released its long-awaited National Security Strategy (NSS) this week. Now think tankers, experts, and analysts are pouring through the 48-page document to weed out the substantive excerpts that will define U.S. President Joe Biden’s approach to global challenges from the usual boilerplate “strategery” fluff that always clogs up these types of documents. (Speaking of, read our coverage of everything you need to know about the new NSS, from FP’s Amy Mackinnon.)

One major change worth delving into is how the Biden administration views the Russia and China threat. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s 2017 NSS often cited Russia and China in effectively the same breath.

In this year’s NSS, the Biden administration is drawing a clear line between the two, which will have significant implications for how it carries out U.S. foreign policy in the coming years. “[China] and Russia are increasingly aligned with each other but the challenges they pose are, in important ways, distinct,” the strategy reads.

The strategy portrays Russia as a belligerent but declining imperialist power and China as the greatest long-term threat to the United States. To oversimplify: Russia is today’s problem, and China is tomorrow’s problem.

“[China] is the greatest geopolitical challenge we face and the only competitor with the intent and, increasingly, the capability to remake the international order,” a senior administration official told reporters during a briefing on the new NSS. Russia wasn’t honored with that same description.

Although China and Russia appear to be aligned in the short term, that will likely change, the official said. (The senior official spoke on condition of anonymity, under ground rules set by the White House before the briefing.) Even as the Biden administration looks to confront both countries, it will also be seeking to drive cracks and fissures in the relationship between Moscow and Beijing.

“Over the longer term, I think the China-Russia relationship becomes significantly more complicated,” the official said. “Geopolitically, I think their interests may also start to diverge. I think there will be tension that we can tease out and take advantage of over the long term.”

Another insight into the administration’s thinking on both adversaries comes with Taiwan and Ukraine. In the past few months, everyone seems to be comparing the two—Russia’s ambitions to “right a historical wrong” (in its eyes) by conquering Ukraine and China’s not-so-subtle ambitions to claim Taiwan.

The senior administration official pushed back on that characterization, however, when your trusty SitRep authors pressed on it during the briefing. “If anything, there is a tendency to probably overread analogies … and to overstate the degree to which either country is drawing conclusions from the situation in the other, either Russia or China,” the official said. “I don’t think the U.S. or the Western approach to the conflict in Ukraine is being overread in all likelihood by the Chinese when it comes to Taiwan.”

Adam Tooze and Cameron Abadi will be taping an episode of FP’s popular economics podcast, Ones and Tooze, in front of a live audience. Come for the unvarnished repartee, the bookish asides, and, of course, the two data points that explain the world. Join us live in New York, or tune in virtually to the livestream. Oct. 25, 7-9 p.m. EDT | Purchase tickets.

Biden has tapped Air Force Lt. Gen. Thomas Bussiere to become the four-star head of Air Force Global Strike Command. He was previously the No. 2 military official at U.S. Strategic Command.

Sabrina Singh is now deputy press secretary at the U.S. Defense Department. She was previously director of integrated campaigns at the Pentagon and served as the No. 2 press officer for U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris during the first year of the Biden administration.

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

All it takes is one. Russia has purchased hundreds of low-tech Iranian Shahed-136 loitering munitions to use on the battlefield in Ukraine and fired off dozens of them in nationwide drone and missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday.

The propeller-run drones aren’t much to look at in terms of high-tech gear—you might find more complex computer chips in a preowned vehicle at your local used car lot—but experts told Jack that they could give Russia an edge against Ukrainian air defenses. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said 2,400 more drones are on the way.

Dictator bros unite. The United Nations General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to condemn Russia’s attempts to annex part of Ukraine in the latest diplomatic blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The vote was 143 to 5 while 35 countries abstained.

The four countries that backed Russia in the vote were North Korea, Belarus, Syria, and Nicaragua—not really a choice group of countries. Washington and its allies failed to convince some countries that abstained to vote against Russia despite some intensive behind-the-scenes diplomacy—namely with India and South Africa. But at the same time, Moscow failed to convince many countries still considered within its orbit (think: Central Asian countries) or even those that aren’t particularly chummy with Washington to join its camp.

Fire sale. Inflation and grim global economic outlooks are causing everyone to tighten up their belts—but fret not, dear readers, because the arms sales industry is still going strong. U.S. arms sales topped $50 billion in fiscal year 2022, according to Breaking Defense, a jump from around $35 billion in 2021.

One major factor: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which sparked a surge in arms sale requests from U.S. allies in Europe. Another is some newly secured sales of the latest F-35 fighter jet, which comes with a steep price tag.

MiG-29 fighter jets from the Polish Air Force take part in a NATO military exercise near the Lask Air Base in Lask, Poland, on Oct. 12. Omar Marques/Getty Images

Giving food insecurity some insecurities. What’s better than ForeignPolicy.com one might ask? There’s only one right answer: Foreign Policy’s print edition! FP just released its latest print issue, focused on tackling the global food crisis given all its myriad humanitarian and national security implications. It’s not all doom and gloom either. Read up on some solutions here.

Today: NATO defense ministers wrap up a second day of meetings in Brussels.

Oct. 17: Democratic Sen. Jack Reed, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, is scheduled to give an address on U.S. military strategy at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“Ms. Truss entered Downing Street on September 6th. She blew up her own government with a package of unfunded tax cuts and energy-price guarantees on September 23rd. Take away the ten days of mourning after the death of Queen Elizabeth II, and she had seven days in control. That is roughly the shelf-life of a lettuce.”

—The Economist writes a searing political obituary of flagging British Prime Minister Liz Truss.