In Brazil, Bolsonaro and Lula Face Off

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at Brazil’s polarizing presidential runoff election, Egypt’s economic troubles, and Uganda’s Ebola response. 

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Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday to vote in the country’s presidential runoff, finally concluding a polarizing election season that has been plagued by political violence and rampant misinformation.

The pivotal vote—which has been seen as a battle for Brazil’s democracy—pits far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro against leftist former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, widely known as Lula.

Lula has so far maintained a narrow lead in the polls—although Bolsonaro outperformed what pollsters had predicted in the first round of voting. Despite being imprisoned for corruption, Lula was later released on procedural grounds, enabling his potential comeback now. 

Regardless of who triumphs on Sunday, uncertainty is sure to follow. With Bolsonaro’s record of undermining trust in Brazil’s electoral systems and installing military officials in government positions, experts warn that a Bolsonaro victory would be devastating for the country.

If he wins, “it’ll be a disaster for democracy in Brazil,” said James Green, a professor of Brazilian history at Brown University.

Bolsonaro has also appeared to set the stage to challenge a potential loss, fueling fears that he will not go quietly if Lula wins. Alongside making unfounded claims about election fraud and stolen votes, Bolsonaro has urged his devoted base to “go to war,” if necessary. This rhetoric has been echoed by his son, who insisted that his father is experiencing the “the greatest electoral fraud ever seen.”

Bolsonaro is “trying to create what I would consider to be ‘the big lie,’” Green said. He wants to “create a narrative—to shore up his support, much like [former U.S. President Donald] Trump did—that there was voting fraud so that he can therefore justify his defeat.”

Many of Bolsonaro’s followers have already demonstrated their willingness to fight for him. In one of the more recent displays of political violence, a Bolsonaro-allied politician shot at and lobbed hand grenades at police who were trying to apprehend him, offering a window into how the country’s rhetoric has stoked violence and attacks. 

Ultimately, it is a combination of both “fear and passion” that will push the public to vote on Sunday—and both camps’ supporters have sought to awaken these feelings, as FP’s Catherine Osborn reports from Duque de Caxias, Brazil. 

“Many Brazilians view the Oct. 30 runoff as the country’s highest-stakes election since it emerged from a military dictatorship in 1985,” she writes.

Have questions about the Brazilian election campaign, runoff results, or the future of Brazil generally? Join Rio de Janeiro-based journalist and author of Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief, Catherine Osborn, the day after the runoff vote for a special live chat on Monday, Oct. 31, at 1 p.m. ET. Foreign Policy subscribers can submit their questions ahead of time here.

Egypt’s economic woes. Egypt and the International Monetary Fund have agreed to an initial deal for a $3 billion loan, officials announced on Thursday. Once approved, it would be the fourth time that Cairo is receiving this type of loan since 2016. Authorities estimate that one-third of Egyptians are currently living in poverty.

Sobchak flees Russia. Ksenia Sobchak, a 40-year-old Russian TV anchor and former reality TV star known for her close family connections to Russian President Vladimir Putin, used an Israeli passport to flee Russia on Tuesday. Sobchak left the country after police raided her home in connection with a criminal investigation of her business partners and had reportedly obtained a warrant for her arrest. She fled to Belarus, then Lithuania.

Sobchak is the daughter of St. Petersburg’s first post-Soviet mayor, Anatoly Sobchak, who served as a political mentor to Putin in the 1990s. As the Washington Post notes, “Sobchak has often carefully criticized Putin and his policies, but many opposition figures have accused her of trying to simultaneously appease liberals and the Kremlin.”

What’s next for Britain under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s leadership? Will he turn the country’s economic woes around, and what will he do about China—and Russia’s war in Ukraine? Join FP’s security and intelligence reporter, Amy Mackinnon, for a wide-ranging FP Live interview at 1 p.m. ET today with Robin Niblett, a distinguished fellow at Chatham House, and Anand Menon, a professor of European politics at King’s College London.

Uganda’s Ebola response. Authorities have been able to manage Uganda’s Ebola outbreak with a successful contact-tracing campaign, officials announced on Thursday. Health officials are monitoring 98 percent of the nearly 2,700 people who are known to have been in contact with current Ebola patients. 

“The situation is not getting out of control,” said Ahmed Ogwell, acting chief of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. “We have good visibility of all the contacts.”

Same-sex marriage in Mexico. Same-sex marriage is now recognized in every state in Mexico after policymakers in the state of Tamaulipas—the country’s last holdout—legalized it Wednesday. 

“The whole country shines with a huge rainbow,” tweeted Arturo Zaldívar, president of the Supreme Court. “Live the dignity and rights of all people. Love is love.”

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• Russia’s Ukraine Disaster Exposes China’s Military Weakness by Tai Ming Cheung

Hardworking bumblebees like to play just as much as the rest of us, according to a new study in the Animal Behaviour journal. Researchers found that the fuzzy insects are inclined to spin around on tiny balls, even without first receiving instruction or having other incentives. 

“There are lots of animals who play just for the purposes of enjoyment, but most examples come from young mammals and birds,” Lars Chittka, a professor at Queen Mary University of London, told the Guardian. “This research provides a strong indication that insect minds are far more sophisticated than we might imagine.”