Lula Narrowly Defeats Bolsonaro

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at the results of Brazil’s presidential runoff, South Korea’s Halloween tragedy, and the world this week.

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Leftist former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—widely known as Lula—triumphed in the country’s election runoff on Sunday, narrowly defeating far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a heated presidential race that polarized the nation and fueled political violence.

Lula ultimately secured 50.9 percent of the vote, whereas Bolsonaro received 49.1 percent—making it Brazil’s tightest presidential contest since 1985, when the country transitioned from a military dictatorship to a democracy. 

“I will govern for 215 million Brazilians and not just for those who voted for me,” Lula declared on Sunday night. “There are not two Brazils. We are one country, one people, one great nation.”

Sunday’s victory is a dramatic political comeback for Lula, who was previously president from 2003 to 2010. He is largely remembered for leading Brazil during a period of economic prosperity and lower poverty—and, more controversially, for his involvement in a sweeping corruption scandal that ultimately landed him in jail. After serving just 580 days of his 22-year sentence, the Supreme Federal Court annulled his conviction for procedural reasons.

That paved the way for his return to power. As Brazilian households confront surging inflation and a worsening economic outlook, Lula ran on a campaign to raise the minimum wage, funnel more spending toward poorer communities, and curb illegal logging—although his proposals have been short on the details. 

On election day, there were widespread fears of possible voter suppression efforts as Brazil’s Federal Highway Police—which has been accused of being cozy with Bolsonaro—reportedly established roadblocks in pro-Lula regions, presumably to prevent people from casting votes for him.

In response, Brazilian Supreme Federal Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered them to end the roadblocks and later said they had only delayed voters.

Lula is set to assume the presidency on Jan. 1; the question now is how Bolsonaro will respond after his monthslong campaign to undermine the integrity of Brazil’s voting systems. As of Monday morning, he had still not spoken out on the election results.

Have questions about the Brazilian election campaign, runoff results, or the future of Brazil generally? Join Rio de Janeiro-based journalist and author of Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief, Catherine Osborn, for a special live chat today at 1 p.m. ET. Foreign Policy subscribers can submit their questions ahead of time here.

South Korea’s deadly crowd surge. At least 154 people were killed in a stampede during a Halloween celebration in Seoul on Saturday, making it the country’s deadliest tragedy in eight years. Officials say the celebration—which involved as many as 100,000 participants—took a disastrous turn when crowds packed into a narrow alleyway. 

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has announced a period of national mourning and pledged to investigate what happened. “This is truly tragic,” he said. “A tragedy and disaster that should not have happened took place in the heart of Seoul last night.”

India’s disastrous bridge collapse. A bridge in Gujarat, India, collapsed on Sunday, killing at least 140 people and sending hundreds more individuals plummeting into the river below. The suspension bridge, which was constructed in 1880, had only recently reopened after undergoing renovations; officials said the bridge was likely holding too many people when it broke. 

“My heart is with the victims in Morbi,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said. “I have rarely felt this kind of pain in my life.”

Monday, Oct. 31: Russian President Vladimir Putin hosts trilateral talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

The U.S. and South Korean Air Forces begin large-scale exercises. 

Tuesday, Nov. 1: Israel holds parliamentary elections.

Tuesday, Nov. 1, to Wednesday, Nov. 2: Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is expected to visit China.

Thursday, Nov. 3: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets new Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Friday, Nov. 4: Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Black Sea deal’s uncertain fate. Russia has left the Black Sea grain deal after accusing Ukraine of launching “massive” drone attacks against both civilian and military vessels, including one that reportedly damaged a warship. The United Nations-brokered agreement, which was implemented in July, was designed to help ease surging grain prices and the global food crisis. 

Moscow will “no longer guarantee the safety of civilian dry cargo ships participating in the Black Sea Grain Initiative and will suspend its implementation from today for an indefinite period,” the Kremlin said. 

Somalia’s deadly car bombings. At least 100 people died and almost 300 more people were injured after two car bombings shook Mogadishu on Saturday, according to Somalian President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. Al-Shabab has taken responsibility for the attack.

• Ukraine’s War Is Like World War I, Not World War II by Anatol Lieven

• Biden Short-Circuits China by Rishi Iyengar

• Mongolia Is Keen to Distance Itself From Moscow and Beijing by Julian Dierkes

More than a week after escaping from its glass enclosure at a Swedish zoo, a 7-foot-long king cobra called Houdini appeared to miss home and traveled back to its terrarium on its own, The Associated Press reported.

Using X-ray machines, zoo workers discovered Houdini hidden in between two walls. They then drilled holes to reach the sneaky snake, but Houdini went missing again—until they found it back in its terrarium.

“It was too stressful for Houdini with all the holes in the walls, so he wanted to go home again,” the aquarium’s CEO, Jonas Wahlstrom, told Swedish public broadcaster SVT.