Russia’s Grain Deal Whiplash

Welcome to today’s Morning Brief, where we’re looking at Russia’s grain deal whiplash, a truce in Ethiopia’s civil war, and North Korean-Russian ties.

If you would like to receive Morning Brief in your inbox every weekday, please sign up here.

In an abrupt reversal, Russia announced that it would rejoin the Black Sea Grain Initiative on Wednesday, just days after its withdrawal from the landmark deal sparked global criticism and fueled fears about its fate. 

Moscow’s sharp U-turn underscores the extreme uncertainty that has shrouded the fragile agreement ever since it was implemented in July. Almost 75 percent of Ukraine’s agricultural exports pass through the Black Sea, but Russia’s naval blockade prevented key agricultural commodities from leaving the country, thereby driving up global food prices and intensifying food insecurity.

Enter the United Nations- and Turkey-brokered grain deal, which enables exports and has helped relieve pressures on more than 345 million people currently confronting food insecurity, especially those living in import-dependent countries. With the agreement in place, Ukraine has been able to export more than 9.5 million metric tons of wheat, corn, barley, and other key commodities.

But Russia has long threatened to leave the deal, and Ukrainian officials have accused Moscow of intentionally delaying ships to sabotage the agreement. Over the weekend, the Kremlin withdrew from the agreement after accusing Ukraine of targeting its civilian and military ships in the sea; Ukraine has, in turn, accused Russia of launching attacks from its vessels in the Black Sea. 

Moscow’s withdrawal drew sharp criticism and concern from world leaders, who urged it to continue its participation in the deal. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the Kremlin was using a “false pretext” to walk away from the agreement. 

“We have warned of Russia’s plans to ruin the Black Sea Grain Initiative,” he tweeted. “Now Moscow uses a false pretext to block the grain corridor which ensures food security for millions of people.”

Even after Russia announced it was withdrawing from the deal over the weekend, three ships left Ukrainian ports on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Russian officials said Kyiv had provided sufficient guarantees for it to rejoin the agreement, but they warned that Russia could still leave.

Canada’s immigration policy. Canada has pledged to add 1.45 million immigrants to its population by 2025 to bolster its labor force. Immigrants now comprise 23 percent of the country’s population, according to census data.

“Look, folks, it’s simple to me: Canada needs more people,” said Sean Fraser, the Canadian immigration minister. “Canadians understand the need to continue to grow our population if we’re going to meet the needs of the labor force, if we’re going to rebalance a worrying demographic trend, and if we’re going to continue to reunite families.”

Tehran’s protest response. Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to soften his rhetoric toward the country’s young protesters on Wednesday, saying they “are our own kids, and we don’t have any dispute with them.” He instead continued to blame Western countries for directing the protests and engaging in acts of “hybrid warfare,” the Wall Street Journal reported.