Will the G-20 Lead to More Engagement With China?

It’s fair to say that very little was expected of this year’s G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. Although the grouping represents 60 percent of the world’s population and more than 80 percent of its GDP—and is therefore seen as influential but less unwieldy than the United Nations General Assembly—this year’s meeting seemed to be conducted under especially inauspicious circumstances. Russia’s war in Ukraine has cleaved the world into the West versus the rest; a new Cold War is brewing between China and the United States; and the global economy faces rampant inflation, a food crisis, and an energy supply crunch. To make matters worse, on the first day of the summit, missiles struck Poland right as Russia was pummeling Ukraine with rockets, spurring a flurry of panicked diplomatic calls. Initial reports suggested the missiles may have originated in Russia—potentially triggering a discussion to invoke NATO’s Article 5—but subsequent intelligence indicated the missiles may have been errant defensive ones from Ukrainian soil.