Iran’s Protesters Dig in Their Heels

Here is today’s Foreign Policy brief: Iran’s government intensifies its crackdown on mass protests, China seeks to contain a significant COVID-19 outbreak weeks after adjusting its rules, and Malaysia’s king seeks to resolve an electoral crisis.

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More than two months have passed since mass protests erupted in Iran after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, an Iranian Kurdish woman, died in Tehran in the custody of the morality police. The youth-led movement continues to gain strength and capture global attention despite increasing violence at the hands of the regime.

Last week, four people were sentenced to death in connection with their participation in protests challenging the country’s clerical establishment. In recent days, security forces escalated their crackdown with live fire in Iran’s Kurdish region, which has been at the center of the protest movement. On Monday, tens of thousands of protesters there joined the funeral of a 16-year-old boy killed at a protest in the small town of Piranshahr.

The U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) on Tuesday called the ongoing crisis in Iran “critical,” saying that more than 300 people have been killed in the regime crackdowns so far. Accounts from Kurdish-majority cities suggest that security forces killed more than 40 people in the last week, an OHCHR spokesperson said, and estimates from other rights groups are even higher.

The protesters’ enduring anger—built on dissatisfaction with the hard-line government, the economic crisis, and policies such as the mandatory hijab law—presents a significant and growing challenge to the regime. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that Iranian leaders reached out to two of the Islamic Republic’s more moderate founding families last month, asking them to speak out to calm the protests, but they refused.

The U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva will hold a debate on the protests on Thursday, with diplomats and witnesses expected to attend. The session will hear a proposal to create a fact-finding mission focused on the government crackdown to collect evidence of potential abuses that could later be used in a national or international court.

Iran’s unrest has also gained visibility at the 2022 FIFA World Cup, where the country’s national team began its first match against England on Monday by refusing to sing the national anthem in an apparent show of solidarity with protesters. The team had previously faced criticism from activists for bowing to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at a send-off before traveling to Qatar; videos online showed some crowds of protesters celebrating Iran’s loss.

Iran plays against Wales on Friday. Some Iranian politicians issued veiled threats toward the team, raising questions about what the players would do next, the Guardian reports. On Tuesday, the chairman of Tehran’s city council said, “We will never allow anyone to insult our anthem and flag.” Another lawmaker called for the team to be replaced with more patriotic players. However, national media have steered away from the team’s silent protest.

China tightens COVID rules. Not long after making some changes to its strict zero-COVID policy, some Chinese cities have doubled down again as cases rise. Health authorities reported the first official deaths from COVID-19 since May this week, along with recording 28,000 new cases on Monday—nearing a record set in April. In response to outbreaks, Beijing has closed parks and museums, and Shanghai announced new rules for recent arrivals to the city.

China’s response to the latest wave has raised questions about its path forward, with its zero-COVID policy now reflective of its global isolation. It has also spooked investors, who have hoped for an easing of the policy as Beijing’s economy suffers. On Tuesday, large protests erupted at a FoxConn factory that produces Apple iPhones in Zhengzhou.

Malaysia’s hung parliament. Malaysia has had three prime ministers in three years. It now faces a political stalemate after neither leading contender secured a majority in parliamentary elections on Nov. 19. Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin declined King Abdullah’s suggestion to form a “unity government,” which leaves it up to the monarch to appoint someone to cobble together a coalition.

Today, the king was expected to meet with politicians from the incumbent Barisan Nasional coalition, which has so far refused to back either Anwar or Muhyiddin. Anwar’s coalition won more seats overall, but an Islamist party that is part of Muhyiddin’s coalition gained significant support, raising fears of deepening divisions in Malaysia.

Scottish independence referendum ruling. According to a Wednesday ruling by the U.K. Supreme Court, Scotland lacks the authority to hold an independence referendum without agreement from the British government—a blow to Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s plans to hold a vote in October 2023.

Robert Reed, the president of the Supreme Court, relied on a Canadian Supreme Court ruling regarding Quebec’s claims to independence—concluding that Scotland, like Quebec, was not a colonized or oppressed nation. The “right to self-determination under international law only exists in situations of former colonies, or where a people is oppressed, as for example under foreign military occupation, or where a definable group is denied meaningful access to government to pursue their political, economic, cultural and social development,” Reed said.

MBS’s World Cup win. Saudi Arabia pulled off a major World Cup upset on Tuesday, defeating Argentina in group play. But Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman already looked like a winner in Qatar, sitting next to FIFA President Gianni Infantino at the opener. His appearance caps a few busy weeks of diplomacy for the crown prince and follows Washington’s decision to grant him immunity in a civil lawsuit over the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Saudi Arabia’s World Cup victory was celebrated across the Arab world, the Washington Post reports, and Riyadh declared today a national holiday to mark the historic win.

Russian oil price cap. The United States and its Western allies aim to reach an agreement today on a price cap on Russian oil—central to efforts to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine—after months of discussion. The policy aims to limit Russian energy revenue without causing a major spike in oil prices. Ambassadors from European Union member states will meet first to nail down a price with unanimous agreement.

The G-7 countries and Australia plan to enforce the price cap beginning Dec. 5. The EU is also working on a plan to cap Russian natural gas prices.

• Ukraine Has a Secret Resistance Operating Behind Russian Lines by Norma Costello and Vera Mironova 

• The Franco-German Motor Is on Fire by Caroline de Gruyter

• In Spain, Can Truth Ever Bring Reconciliation? by Mark Nayler

Employees at a museum in the German town of Manching discovered on Tuesday that the museum’s prized collection of Celtic gold coins had been stolen—with the thieves apparently meddling with the town’s phone and internet services to evade detection. “They cut off the whole of Manching,” the mayor told the Süddeutsche Zeitung. “Professionals were at work here.”

The 450-coin collection was worth “several million euros,” according to police. The heist at the Bavarian museum is the latest high-profile robbery in Germany in recent years, including the theft of a 100-kilogram (220-pound) gold coin from Berlin’s Bode Museum in 2017.