What a Decade 2022 Was

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Wow, what a World Cup, huh? But as fun as it was to watch Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé trade goals on the world stage, it’s time for us to get back to the real beautiful game: Mario Kart 64.

On tap for today, we have a look back on the biggest national security stories of 2022.

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The Biden administration entered 2022 hoping to stave off Russia’s planned full-scale invasion of Ukraine, lay guardrails to avoid military conflict with China, and empower democracies (or, at least, aspiring democracies) around the world. That democracies-versus-autocracies narrative has been a long-standing theme for U.S. President Joe Biden, who dedicated a portion of a 2021 address to a joint session of Congress to the idea.

But by mid-October, when the U.S. administration finally got around to delivering its national security strategy, Biden and his advisors were looking at a world that had been fundamentally remade by Washington’s two foremost authoritarian antagonists—Russia and China—and their visions of conquest. As the strategy put it, the post-Cold War era was “definitively over.”

Instead of walking away from his predecessor, Donald Trump, the Biden strategy, solidified by the decision to pour more than $19 billion worth of weapons into Ukraine to help halt the Russian advance, hardened the Trump-era realpolitik approach toward the United States’ top two great power adversaries, whereas past Democratic administrations had sought to beef up diplomacy. By Biden’s measure, China, not Russia, is now the United States’ sole enduring superpower rival with the capability and the will to uproot the post-World War II international order—if only Washington could get around to dealing with it.

Despite Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, which has sucked most of the air out of the room in Washington, as the fighting hit a lull, China forced itself back into the front burner in Washington. U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan—a trip that some in the administration warned her against—nearly coincided with 11 days of Chinese military exercises around the embattled island.

The Biden team continues to make the case that its Ukraine strategy is providing a signal to China against making any sudden military moves in Asia, a decision that could spark additional punishing sanctions, export controls, and perhaps an international embrace of Taipei. But the hawks are circling. With Republicans poised to take control of the House, perhaps even with Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker (with some handpicked hawks to run at least one China-focused committee), the Biden administration might have to make choices.

At the end of 2022, despite earning praise for its Ukraine strategy, the Biden team finds itself between a rock and a hard place: arming Ukraine for a bitter winter, staring down the barrel of a possible Taiwan invasion by China, and facing political pressure on all sides.

As the year winds to a close, the Senate confirmed a slew of senior Pentagon and State Department nominees, some of whom had been sitting in limbo for months. Among those confirmed this week:

Franklin Parker to be assistant secretary of the Navy.

Agnes Schaefer to be assistant secretary of the Army.

Lynne Tracy to be U.S. ambassador to Russia.

Joey Hood to be U.S. ambassador to Tunisia.

Lucy Tamlyn to be U.S. ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Cynthia Dyer to be the U.S. envoy for combating human trafficking.

What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.

Mr. Zelensky Goes to Washington. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made his first trip out of his country since Russia launched its invasion in late February, coming to Washington on a whirlwind trip to visit Biden and address Congress. Zelensky thanked the United States for its crucial military aid but said his country needed more to defeat Russia on the battlefield. “We have artillery, yes. Thank you. … Is it enough? Honestly, not really,” he said in a speech to Congress. “Your money is not charity. It’s an investment in the global security and democracy that we handle in the most responsible way.”

While a few prominent far-right lawmakers have criticized U.S. aid to Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of Congress supports doubling down on military support. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said that “the most basic reasons for continuing to help Ukraine degrade and defeat the Russian invaders are cold, hard, practical American interests” and “defeating Russia’s aggression will help prevent further security crises in Europe.”

The frenemy of my frenemy. Russia and China are conducting joint naval drills in the East China Sea this week in a sign of the countries’ deepening military ties despite Western efforts to isolate Russia on the international stage. From the Russian side, the exercises involved the Varyag missile cruiser, the Marshal Shaposhnikov destroyer and two corvettes from Russia’s Pacific fleet. The Chinese dispatched two destroyers and a diesel submarine alongside other ships for the exercise.

Promises broken. Some 70,000 Afghans who fled to the United States after Afghanistan fell to the Taliban now face an uncertain future and heightened risk of deportation after Congress failed to pass legislation offering them pathways to legal permanent residency, as Robbie reported this week. The Afghan Adjustment Act had bipartisan support, but opposition from at least one senior GOP lawmaker, Sen. Chuck Grassley, prevented it from being folded into the massive omnibus spending bill that Congress is expected to pass this week. Tens of thousands of Afghans are in the United States on humanitarian parole, a temporary status slated to expire next year.

The Afghan Adjustment Act would have streamlined the process to allow them to apply for permanent residency and alleviated the bureaucratic backlogs in the application system. It’s unclear whether the bill can be revived in the new Congress, a fact that has incensed refugee advocates and former top U.S. officials who say Congress is abandoning Afghan allies. “It is another retreat from American global leadership,” Ryan Crocker, the former U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan, told Foreign Policy. “It strengthens our enemies and discourages our allies. We will all pay the price for that.”

Fans of Argentina celebrate at the Obelisk after winning the Qatar 2022 World Cup against France in Buenos Aires on Dec. 18. Luis Robayo/AFP via Getty Images

Dec. 25. Christmas Day

“A bit nervous. First time since the beginning of the war my president goes for a trip not by train. Actually by train, but also not by train. Forgot the name for that transport vehicle that flies. Nervous.”

—CEO of state-owned Ukrainian Railways Alexander Kamyshin was a bit worried about Zelensky’s plane trip to Washington. We can’t blame him, but it’s a bit difficult to find a train across the Atlantic Ocean. 

Business casual. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba showed up to the Oval Office yesterday for Zelensky’s visit with Biden in New Balance sneakers, prompting one Ukrainian lawmaker to quip, “Nike already regrets that they signed a contract with LeBron and not with Kuleba.”