The New Rules of War

For much of the last year, Foreign Policy’s reporters and analysts have been trying to make sense of Russia’s war in Ukraine. But remember the adage that generals always fight the last war? Of late, we at FP have been wondering: What can this war teach the world going forward? 

Of course, Moscow isn’t done inflicting its horrors, and Kyiv isn’t done fighting back. But there’s little doubt that policymakers in Beijing, for example, are closely observing the war to inform their military strategies for the future. One could also argue, as countries in the global south sometimes do, that the war in Ukraine is hardly the only impactful conflict. There’s merit to that argument. But it’s also true that no other war in recent memory has drawn in so many great powers, presented the threat of nuclear war, and had such profound effects on global food and energy security.

In other words, a lot of the things that were imagined purely in academia—or in war games—have played out in the real world in the last year. The question then is what we’ve learned, not just for its hypothetical value but also to make sure we don’t sleepwalk into another war. 

For this issue’s cover, we asked 12 experts for their thoughts. As you can imagine, Taiwan came up a lot (90 times, in fact). But so did sanctions, treaties, nuclear weapons, cybersecurity, and information operations. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who ran NATO between 2009 and 2014, writes that the war in Ukraine is a reminder that weapons matter. He argues that Taiwan should “become a porcupine bristling with armaments” to deter China from an invasion. David Petraeus, a former CIA chief who also led U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, contends that Ukraine has taught the world the power of highly mobile and well-dispersed fighting units—a strategy that, for example, the United States and its allies could deploy across the Pacific against China’s naval and air forces. Lee Hsi-min, a former chief of Taiwan’s military, draws a different lesson from Ukraine: He looks back at defense reforms undertaken by Kyiv since 2014 and argues that Taiwan “needs to seriously prepare now.” FP columnist Elisabeth Braw points out that one of Ukraine’s key advantages over Russia has been its ability to communicate effectively—from humorous memes to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s somber daily addresses. And Anne-Marie Slaughter, the CEO of New America and a former director of policy planning at the U.S. State Department, directs our attention to MAC: mutual assured cyberdestruction. It might sound scary, but it’s a good deal safer than the original MAD and a reminder to leaders to renew their efforts to reverse nuclear proliferation. 

There are many more lessons to draw, and I urge you to go through the package carefully. There’s also our usual range of arguments and reviews sprinkled throughout the issue. One other special item: We asked the Indian historian Ramachandra Guha to examine India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Guha describes, in great detail, how Modi has systematically undermined several key pillars of democracy, including the bureaucracy, press, and judiciary. Be warned about the consequences. 

Let’s hope 2023 is more peaceful than 2022. 

As ever, 

Ravi Agrawal